Canadians fume, Americans shrug: 81% of Canadians see negative relationship with U.S., while only 31% of Americans agree: Polling

Four in five Canadians now describe their country’s relationship with the U.S. as negative, a level of agreement that cuts across region, ideology, and tariff exposure, while fewer than one in three Americans see it the same way, according to recent binational polling from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. The report, “Beyond CUSMA: Crisis, Co-operation and the Relationship Ahead,” was prepared for the school’s New North America Initiative and is based on two waves of surveys conducted this spring—roughly 1,000 Canadians polled by Nanos Research and about 1,000 Americans polled by Ipsos were polled in late March and late April this year, after Canada had previously faced a series of insults from U.S. President Donald Trump and threats from his administration, including barring the Gordie Howe International Bridge from opening. The numbers sketch a major contrast between citizens of the two neighbouring nations. In the polling, 81 percent of Canadians called the relationship negative (44 percent calling it very negative), compared with 31 percent of Americans, and while only 1 percent of Canadians were unsure how to answer, 17 percent of Americans couldn’t say. Canadian favourability toward the U.S. has collapsed to 20 percent—roughly where Canadians place China—and 77 percent of Canadians now name the U.S. as a major challenge to Canada’s economic prosperity, far ahead of China at 44 percent. Few Americans raise a quarrel with Canada. Just 8 percent see Canada as a major economic challenge—the lowest of any country tested—and 52 percent still hold a favourable view of Canada. Part of that is likely the lack of attention Americans pay to Canada. Three-quarters of Americans have never visited Canada, and 70 percent never follow Canadian news. Writing in the Globe and Mail, Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos likened the standoff to a hockey game in which Canadians have dropped the gloves at centre ice while bewildered Americans wonder what has the Canadians so worked up. Trump’s tariff talk, Nanos argued, has pushed the dispute past economics into something emotional and symbolic for Canadians, and he cautioned against mistaking the White House for the American public. “The risk is not divorce but drift,” Nanos wrote, warning that political theatre and wounded Canadian pride could make things worse before they get better. Common ground under the anger Despite the fury, the NNAI polling finds both publics still want the economic architecture to survive. Fully 88 percent of Canadians and 56 percent of Americans support a trilateral free trade agreement that includes Mexico, and 93 percent of Canadians—along with 65 percent of Americans—believe non-renewal would damage their national economy. Majorities on both sides back defence and economic-security cooperation. The catch is in Washington’s politics: 71 percent of Democrats support the trade pact against 45 percent of Republicans, a 26-point gap. CUSMA support from Americans surveyed also varied greatly depending on racial and ethnic background. Black Americans are the least supportive of a free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, at 45 percent, while 57 percent of white Americans back a trilateral free trade agreement. American Hispanics are the most supportive at 64 percent. Why Canadians are angry The survey lands amid a string of irritants that have kept Canadian tempers high through the first half of 2026. The trade war is now approaching the 18-month mark, with Section 232 tariffs still hammering Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. The NNAI report notes those tariffs hit Ontario and Quebec hardest—58 percent and 55 percent of their U.S.-bound exports are exposed—yet negative sentiment is just as high in provinces barely touched, evidence that the anger is national rather than strictly economically driven. U.S. President Donald Trump has continued his annexation rhetoric. On June 2, after Statistics Canada data showed the country in a technical recession, he posted “51st State!” on Truth Social, months after referring to Prime Minister Mark Carney as the “future Governor of Canada.” Carney publicly shrugged off the June post as the work of an exceptionally active social-media user, but he has previously confirmed Trump raised annexation directly in their private calls, and Trump himself, asked by TIME whether the 51st state talk was trolling, replied that it was not. For many Canadians, the rhetoric no longer reads as a crass joke. Then there is the Gordie Howe International Bridge. The $6.4-billion Windsor-Detroit crossing—financed by Canada and finished last year—sat closed for months after Trump blocked its opening, demanding compensation and a U.S. stake, with a June 27 ribbon-cutting cancelled at Washington’s request. A deal reached this month, which reportedly diverts half the bridge’s net profits to a regional development fund, will finally see it open July 27. The heaviest blow came July 1, when the United States declined to renew CUSMA at the pact’s mandatory joint review, over the objections of Canada and Mexico. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cited the deal’s “shortcomings,” and the agreement now faces annual reviews—and years of rolling negotiations—rather than the 16-year extension Ottawa sought. The wider polling picture Other surveys reinforce the strain. Gallup’s annual World Affairs poll, conducted Feb. 2–16, found Americans’ favourable rating of Canada fell nine points in a year to 80 percent—the lowest Gallup has ever measured—driven by a 23-point plunge among Republicans, to 62 percent. Japan and Italy displaced Canada and Great Britain atop Gallup’s country ratings for the first time. On the Canadian side, a Nanos Research survey for Bloomberg News taken Jan. 31 to Feb. 4 found 55 percent of Canadians believe the U.S. poses the greatest risk to Canada’s security, compared with 15 percent who named China and 14 percent Russia—meaning the U.S. was named more often than China, Russia and Iran combined. The survey of 1,009 adults carried a margin of error of about 3.1 points. Looking a decade out in the NNAI poll, Americans are the more hopeful bunch: 38 percent expect a positive relationship against 10 percent negative, while Canadians split 31 percent positive to 21 percent negative. On both sides of the border, the report concludes, the dominant mood about the long term is uncertainty, not pessimism. A recent poll reveals a stark contrast in perceptions of the Canada-U.S. relationship, with 81% of Canadians viewing it negatively compared to only 31% of Americans. The survey, conducted by the University of Calgary, highlights growing tensions fueled by tariffs and political rhetoric, particularly from former President Trump. While Canadians express significant frustration, Americans largely remain indifferent, with many unaware of the issues. Despite the negative sentiments, both populations support maintaining economic agreements, indicating a desire for cooperation despite underlying tensions. The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with Canadians slightly more pessimistic than Americans. What factors contribute to the negative perception Canadians have of their relationship with the U.S.? How do Canadians and Americans differ in their views on trade agreements like CUSMA? What implications might the current relationship strain have for future U.S.-Canada cooperation? Comments (0)