Alberta business council urges voters to choose Canada in Oct. 19 secession referendum

The Business Council of Alberta, representing more than 130 chief executives, is urging Albertans to vote to remain in Canada in the Oct. 19 referendum on secession, warning a vote to leave would create massive uncertainty and put jobs and the economy at risk. The council calls it a bid to combat voter apathy—but critics say a campaign whose own members are too wary of their employees and customers to speak out individually is unlikely to move the voters it needs to reach. Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta, said member companies want to present a common position but acknowledged some are reluctant to take a stand on their own because their workforces and clientele include people sympathetic to separation. “They don’t want to upset employees and pit employees against each other or have tension within the workplace—or tension within their customer base,” Legge said. The council’s members lead investment firms, retailers, construction companies and other businesses. Its initiative, launched roughly six weeks before the vote, will circulate material on the referendum question and voting procedures, along with articles and videos, chiefly through its website and social media. Legge said the group will not register as a third-party advertiser. Remaining in Canada is the 10th of 10 questions on the October ballot. The first nine ask whether the province should pursue constitutional and immigration changes. The final question offers two options: staying a province, or having the government hold a second, binding referendum on separation. A recent Leger poll found 65 percent of respondents intend to vote to stay. Legge said business leaders expect the separatist push to fail but see no guarantee, particularly if turnout is low. “Now is the right time to get the business sector’s voice out and to combat voter apathy and encourage people to vote and try to do it in a way that puts the business community’s perspective on the table,” he said. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, the Alberta Chambers of Commerce and the Calgary and Edmonton chambers have already declared for the pro-Canada side. The economic argument underpinning the business campaign rests on the cost of uncertainty rather than the mechanics of independence. Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economist, estimated that roughly 900,000 Albertans work in sectors where at least 35 percent of jobs depend, directly or indirectly, on exports to other provinces or abroad, using a method Statistics Canada developed to measure fallout from U.S. trade turmoil. “If an uncertainty shock similar to the one Canada recently experienced were to occur in Alberta, job losses would be on the order of 50,000,” Tombe wrote. Confined to interprovincial trade alone, he estimated about 200,000 workers are exposed and a comparable hiring slowdown could eliminate more than 10,000 positions, figures he cautioned illustrate orders of magnitude rather than forecasts. Tombe pointed to the Canadian precedent: payroll employment in sectors reliant on U.S. exports fell 2.7 percent, or more than 45,000 jobs, from the start of 2023, a decline he noted was driven by reduced hiring rather than layoffs. The constitutional and fiscal price is less settled. Falice Chin, The Hub‘s Alberta bureau chief, reviewed the 214-page Alberta Transition Plan released by the Alberta Transition Council, co-led by constitutional lawyer Keith Wilson, and found it offers no estimate of the cost of independence or the share of federal debt an independent Alberta would assume. “If Alberta’s October referendum is essentially a referendum on whether to hold another referendum, then the newly released ‘Alberta Transition Plan’ from a separatist organization is, in many ways, a plan for a plan,” Chin wrote. She observed the document concedes a referendum alone cannot make Alberta independent, argues a clear majority would trigger a duty to negotiate, and acknowledges an unresolved dispute with Ottawa over the Clarity Act. Outside estimates cited by Chin range from $3 billion to $6 billion in one-time setup costs to nearly $300 billion, while Premier Danielle Smith has floated a figure of about $400 billion. Tombe argued a Yes vote cast as protest is not costless, noting as many as half of separation supporters may be registering frustration with federal policy rather than seeking a new country, and suggested those voters pursue other avenues. Howard Anglin, a doctoral student at Oxford University, argued in The Hub a No vote with a large Yes share could itself reshape provincial politics, pointing to Quebec, where he wrote that even failed referendums drove out business and damaged investor confidence for decades. Smith’s government commissioned the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy in June to tally the costs of separation, including transition costs and effects on provincial spending. That report is expected in the coming weeks, ahead of the vote. Ask about this article — or anything in Canadian politics, economics, and public policy — powered by The Hub’s 5,000-article archive and deep area expertise. Comments (0)