2027: Ethnicity, religion may outweigh economic consideration by voters

Ethnicity and religion will outweigh economic considerations in determining the outcome of Nigeria’s presidential and other elections scheduled to hold in January 2027, according to the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng. PIG, an analytical unit led by Lai Omotola, publisher of Politico.ng, made the assessment in its October electoral map, while stressing that the projection should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final election result. The group said its monthly electoral map was designed to provide political parties and stakeholders with an assessment of their areas of strength and weakness, based on prevailing political developments. According to PIG, the October projection reflected major political events and realignments recorded across the country in September, as well as the increasing mobilisation by political parties ahead of the 2027 poll. Among the developments it identified were the denial of entry into Benue State to Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor and Labour Party presidential candidate; controversy surrounding President Bola Tinubu’s working vacation and allegations of presidential absenteeism; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s renewed campaign on fuel subsidy; and growing party mobilisation through rallies and other political activities. “APC seems to be mobilising more, followed by NDC, but the NDC has been unable to form a Presidential Campaign Council, while ADC has formed a Presidential Campaign Council but major campaigns are yet to be seen from the party,” the group said. PIG also identified the emerging confrontation between APC governors and Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, as a development that could have implications for the 2027 presidential contest. APC leads October electoral map In its October projection, PIG placed the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead with 19 states, down from 20 states in its September assessment. The group said the APC lost Rivers State but gained Adamawa State, resulting in a net loss of one state. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), which was projected to control nine states in September, lost Adamawa to the APC, reducing its October tally to eight states. The New Nigeria Democratic Party (NDC), meanwhile, increased its projected states from eight in September to 10 in October. The October map, therefore, places the APC on 19 states, NDC on 10 and ADC on eight. PIG emphasised that the figures represent a snapshot of the political landscape rather than a forecast of the eventual election result. It also said the projection was based on the assumption that the 2027 election would be free and fair. Religion, ethnicity could shape voter behaviour Beyond the electoral map, PIG identified religion and ethnicity as potentially more influential factors in determining voter behaviour than economic conditions and other campaign issues. The group said candidates and political parties seeking victory in 2027 would need to understand how religious and ethnic considerations influence voting patterns across Nigeria’s diverse geopolitical landscape. The assessment places particular emphasis on identity-based political mobilisation, even as the economy, fuel prices, employment, inflation, security and other issues remain central concerns for voters. PIG also assessed the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s recent judgment concerning the amended Electoral Act, saying the decision would have limited implications for the 2027 presidential contest. PIG challenges subsidy promises The group also challenged presidential candidates advocating a return to fuel subsidy to provide clear details on how such a policy would be financed and implemented. It said promises to restore subsidy should go beyond campaign rhetoric, with candidates explaining how the government would fund the policy without weakening public revenue or further worsening Nigeria’s fiscal position. PIG said candidates proposing a return to subsidy should show how they intend to fund and sustain their subsidy regime. With political parties stepping up mobilisation ahead of 2027, the group said the evolving electoral map should be viewed as an assessment of the current political landscape rather than a definitive indication of the eventual winner.