Mangroves in Lampung are dying again, Jambi peat continues to burn. Can nature still recover?

The mangrove that had naturally recovered in East Lampung is now experiencing mass death. Changes in water regime, sedimentation, and climate variability are suspected to play a role, but the exact cause is still under investigation. In Gelam River, Jambi, peatlands that are repeatedly burned still harbor biodiversity, including 22 species of birds and indications of Sumatran tiger transit routes. The I-CAN IPB research through Living Laboratory tests ecosystem recovery combined with the development of community livelihoods. Its ecological and economic success still requires monitoring. Ahead of the COP17 Convention on Biological Diversity, the experience of peatlands and mangroves in Lampung and Jambi reminds us that the success of restoration is not measured solely by the area or number of trees, but also by the ecosystem's ability to recover and survive. On the coast of East Lampung, mangrove forests that had naturally regrown are now experiencing mass death. This is despite these mangroves once being hope for the recovery of coastal areas damaged by reclamation and erosion. In the 1990s, erosion and tidal flooding in the Muara Sekampung Protected Forest area caused the community to lose their ponds, even their homes. The reduction of mangrove vegetation due to reclamation also increased coastal vulnerability. Slowly, the mangroves grew back. Around 2007, *Avicennia* species grew naturally to reach about 500 hectares. However, most of these trees have now died again, a phenomenon known as dieback. Then what caused the mangroves that had recovered to die again? Deeper questions arise: To what extent can nature withstand continuous environmental pressure? This is a concern for researchers at the IPB Centre for Applied Research in Nature-based Solutions (I-CAN), the NbS study center at IPB University. Through the Living Laboratory approach, I-CAN directly implements and tests nature-based solutions in the peatlands of Jambi and the mangrove ecosystems of Lampung and Jambi. Researchers identify a number of factors suspected to be interrelated in East Lampung. Their findings indicate that sedimentation changes topography and inundation patterns. Meanwhile, climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also affect rainfall and water conditions. Prolonged inundation is suspected to reduce oxygen availability for the roots. Conversely, when the soil dries, pyrite oxidation can increase soil and water acidity. The extent of each factor's influence on mangrove death still requires further research. This impact is not just the loss of forest area and trees. This area also serves as a habitat for migratory birds along the East Asia–Australasia route, including the bluethroat (*Mycteria cinerea*) and the eastern gaur (*Numenius madagascariensis*). Changes in the ecosystem also have the potential to disrupt the habitats of fish, crabs, and the livelihoods of coastal communities. Burned Peatlands, Life Still Survives The phenomenon in Gelam River, Jambi, has a different problem. The peat landscape in this area repeatedly experiences fires, including in 2019, 2023, and 2026. The presence of large canals makes the peat more susceptible to drying. On the other hand, some communities depend on income from oil palm plantations. Restoring this area is not just about improving water management, but also how the community can continue to earn an income. Through observations conducted by Living Laboratory, I-CAN and the community, agroforestry that combines native peatland plants, such as *jelutung*, *balangeran*, *pulai*, and *tembesu*, with economic plants like Liberica coffee, cassava, and betel nut is tested. Amidst the damage, there is still life surviving. I-CAN's initial study recorded 22 bird species in the observation area. Trees that survived the fires still serve as perching spots for several birds, including the bido eagle. Researchers also found claw marks and received information from the community about encounters with Sumatran tigers. These findings indicate the possibility that the area is a transit route for these protected wildlife. Underneath the peat, researchers found arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal spores down to a depth of 90 centimeters. The fungi living in symbiosis with the plant roots have the potential to help vegetation recovery. Peatlands that have experienced disturbances have not completely lost their biological potential. Nevertheless, the presence of a number of species is not enough to state that their biodiversity has recovered. Important Question: Where is the Limit of Nature's Ability to Recover? Ecosystems have the ability to cope with disturbances and recover. In ecological studies, this ability is known as resilience. However, this ability also has limits. When fires, droughts, changes in water regimes, or other pressures repeatedly occur, the ecosystem's condition can change to a point where it is even harder to return to how it was before. The conditions in Lampung and Jambi show two interesting sides. Mangroves that had regrown can experience death, while peatlands that are repeatedly burned still harbor biodiversity. However, have these two areas approached or exceeded the limits of their recovery ability? I-CAN's initial findings are not enough to answer this. Long-term monitoring of water conditions, vegetation regeneration, wildlife presence, and changes in environmental pressure is still needed to know how much the ecosystem can still survive. Nature's Recovery and Community Livelihoods The ecological problems in both areas cannot be separated from the lives of the communities who depend on natural resources. In Pangkal Babu, Jambi, mangroves that regrew in former ponds have opened up ecotourism opportunities since 2018. Tourism income distributed to local workers reached IDR 70.62 million in 2024 and IDR 84.04 million during the first seven months of 2025. Meanwhile, in Gelam River, women's groups are starting to develop cassava processing businesses. They have received training but still face limitations in equipment and production facilities. Through the guidance of groups and business development initiated by I-CAN, these efforts aim to connect the economic needs of the community with the protection of the area. The hope is that the community has income options without adding pressure to the environment. However, this process is still ongoing. The business guidance, which has been going on for about three months, is not enough to conclude an increase in income as a result of the program. The results are continuously monitored. One thing is clear. For communities who depend on natural resources, -such as in peatland and mangrove ecosystems-, -the ability to adapt is also determined by their livelihood choices, access to markets, and institutional support. Without viable choices and strategies, these survival efforts can actually increase pressure on the ecosystem. Behind Global Restoration Targets I-CAN's experience is very relevant ahead of the 17th Conference of the Parties/Convention on Biological Diversity (COP17/CBD) in October 2026, when the world nations review the progress of implementing the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. This global framework targets at least 30% of degraded ecosystems to be in the process of effective restoration by 2030. However, what happened in Lampung shows that the regrown vegetation may not be able to withstand environmental changes. In Jambi, the presence of wildlife and remaining vegetation is also not enough to ensure that the ecological function of the peat has recovered. Nature still has the ability to recover. But this ability is not limitless. Mangroves that had regrown can experience death again, while peatlands that are repeatedly burned still harbor life. Ecologically, the challenge is not just to restore what has been damaged, but also to understand when the pressure begins to exceed nature's ability to withstand before the damage reaches a point from which it cannot be restored. Amidst the world's efforts to expand ecosystem restoration, the experience in Lampung and Jambi reminds us that the success of recovery is not just measured by the area restored or the number of trees planted. But also by the effort to restore the ecosystem, which requires investment in the community's capacity to manage it.