Yield concerns, improving prices, currency risk, and Churchill's promise

Welcome to the RealAg Issues Panel on RealAg Radio! For today’s show, Host Shaun Haney is joined by Lyndsey Smith and Kelvin Heppner of RealAgriculture and Evan Shout of Maverick Ag, Farmer Coach and the Truth About Ag podcast! 00:00 - Coming up… 02:26 - RealAg Issues Panel 16:13 - RealAg Issues Panel 27:30 - RealAg Issues Panel 41:06 - RealAg Issues Panel 53:37 - RealAg Issues Panel 57:18 - Podcast exclusive bonus segment Thoughts on something we talked about on the show? Connect with host Shaun Haney at shaney@realagriculture.com, on X/Twitter by using the hashtag #RealAgRadio, or give us a shout on the response line, 1-855-776-6147. Trending Last week, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced the Ranchers First Initiative, a list of five actions designed to help beef producers rebuild the domestic cow herd. Some programs are focused on supporting ranchers in retaining heifers through the new Beef Retention and National Development (BRAND) endorsement, while others are focused on risk management... Read more » In the last 12 months, we have seen pretty broad increases in some of the commodity prices that farmers are getting. Canola over $820 a tonne. That's about a 33% increase from where we were a year ago. Wheat prices north of 25%. We got corn over $30, soybeans over $30. That's a good storey, but it's not the entire storey. We've got some yield concerns, obviously, in the Midwest, but Canada is not left out of that conversation. Absolutely. As Mother Nature has not cooperated this harvest. Harvest has grinded a bit of a— it's going to be a laborless long weekend here in September because of some of the rain and hailstorms that have hit Western Canada. But there also is concern on the input side of the equation. Diesel prices, sulphur and phosphorus as well, really showing some resilience to get down to where farmers would have a little bit more an appetite for some of those fertiliser products. We did see the Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index from an optimistic side in July really bump up, really led by some of those commodity prices increasing, but farmers really aren't out of the woods just quite yet. Looking forward to this discussion today on the RealAg Issues panel, Kelvin Heppner, Lyndsey Smith, and Evan Schout, a farmer coach, today on RealAg Radio, Rural Radio 143. This RealAg Radio podcast is brought to you by CropPlan. Your chance to win seed that's as good as gold is waiting. Look for Golden Tickets on select CropPlan canola, corn, and sunflower seed bags. Scan the code and enter for a chance to win up to $25,000 in free CropPlan seed. Trusted genetics, high yield potential, seed, scan, win. Go to goldenticket.cropplan.ca for more details or ask your independent ag retailer. It's time for RealAg Radio on Rural Radio, channel 143 on SiriusXM. RealAg Radio and RealAgriculture.com are your home for insight and analysis of the issues that are impacting your farm business. Let's get real and get connected with RealAg Radio. Welcome to RealAg Radio here on Rural Radio 143 SiriusXM. Shaun Hainey, your host. Thanks so much for joining us here on this Friday. Thanks so much for making RealAg Radio and Rural Radio a big part of your workday. Also, huge shout out to everyone listening out there on the RealAg Radio podcast and watching on YouTube. Well, we got— it's been a very busy week for all things in agriculture, and we've got a great RealAg Issues panel here for you today. If you have any feedback on today's show, you can send me an email, shaney@realagriculture.com. You can also call or text the RealAg feedback line, 855-776-3233. Okay, let's, uh, let's bring in the panel. Why not? Up first, Lyndsey Smith coming out of Ottawa, Ontario. Lyndsey, how are we doing? Hi, I'm back. Uh, we're doing well. Um, I don't know, it— I missed a week and I feel like I missed a lot, and then this week I felt like we'd have nothing to talk about, and now I look at my list and there's like 20 things on here. So it's going well. I, I do want to say And we are still in this like hot, wet, yucky summer and we had a gigantic storm roll through Southern Ontario this week, absolutely huge. So glad to see that everybody's doing okay, but like it was massive. And but shout out to us, high five, we put in a cover crop of barley for maybe some late fall grazing and it was up in like 4 days and I am loving it. Oh nice, you shared pictures of that, that's pretty sweet. Yeah, it's pretty sweet, but it's also been 25 and wet, so there you go. That's all you need in May to have an emerging 40. The prairies are unfortunately getting some of that same kind of moisture, which is ill-timed. I think I'm putting that kind of politely and politically correctly. I won't drop any bad words here on the show, but it is, it's really slowed down harvest. It's gone from A situation where I think a lot of people thought to be wrapped up by September 15th, given how things were looking, or maybe for sure by the end of September, and yeah, no, that's not going to be the case. We got no wheels really turning whatsoever. Also joining us is Kelvin Heppner coming out of Altona, Manitoba. How are we doing today, Kelvin? Doing well here, Shaun. Things have been a bit slower in terms of harvest progress here in Manitoba as well this week with showers rolling through, some big systems rolling through earlier in the week. across much of the prairies. Further to what you're saying, I saw the Saskatchewan crop report, sorry to bring this up for our next guest, but Saskatchewan crop report out yesterday said that harvest is 18% complete, 5-year average for this date is 39%, so well behind average. Again, this is anecdotal feedback, but what I continue to hear from members of the audience is underperforming yields. Not quite what we thought we potentially had in our bag going back to maybe mid-July around egg-in-motion time. And it kind of feels a little bit like 2024 where we underperformed given some of the expectations that, that one shot of rain that everybody was talking about around egg-in-motion time has proved to be an issue. This rain we're getting now, that's the shot of rain we needed in mid-July. That would have— yields would have been fantastic. And as alluded to, we got Evan Schout here from Maverick Ag, farmer coach and the host of the Truth About Ag podcast that you can hear on RealAgriculture.com. Evan, how are we doing? Good. I'll probably double up on what Kelvin said. It's kind of getting sickening looking out the window at the amount of rain we've had in Saskatchewan in the last 7 days. Guys are way behind. I'm getting the usual phone calls of We're starting to get a little worried. And yeah, big message would be yields are underperforming. The good places probably are slightly above average, but majority is, you know, that 5 to 10 bushel under average right now, I think. Yeah, and it seems to kind of be across the board. Is that fair? Okay, so— Cereal's probably a little higher, Shaun. I think I'm hearing, I mean, pulse crop, Not so good in a wet year. And then obviously canola, the early indicators, because guys are just starting to get into it, average to below average, I think, in most areas. Yeah, and the pulse crop, again, I'm combining some discussions. So, you know, this isn't an official crop survey of any sort, but the pulse crop, there was concerns right from the kind of the beginning, right? Like, we— yeah, that's what we heard on the Farmer Rapid Fire. throughout the season. And it is disappointing because if you think back to July when we did our Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index, you look at Canadian farms in general, I think it was like 70% of people thought their growing conditions were good to excellent. So we had potential out in the field, it was in our bag, right? We had it, to use a golf reference. Yeah. This week was Farm Progress Show and we did a great show on Wednesday with AGI. It was a lot of fun, really appreciate that. If you missed it, please go back And listened to it and it was hot, hot, hot, hot, hot. That Lyndsey humidity, I don't know, I think I'm more of a dry heat guy. Welcome to my world, you guys. I am also and/or not a heat person at all. It does make a difference, so hats off to you and Bern and Kelly as well who was there for like making a go of it Changing shirts several times, wringing them out, putting them out to dry. They don't dry in that humidity. But good for you, Shaun, for knocking it off the bucket list. It's the one you hadn't been to yet. Yeah, and you know what, I said on the show that it's the one major North American show that I have not been to yet. I did have somebody from Nebraska text me and say, well, you haven't been to Husker Days. I'm like, okay, so sorry, now the list is gonna get longer again. Yeah, well, and I was also reminded that I have never been to the World Pork Expo. So I have. I, I, I'm— yes, you have. I have. I've, I've been to the World Poultry Expo, for crying in my soup. So there you go. So now, John, what you've done— yeah, what you've done is you've just extended your list. Now you've put it out to the world, so now we get to add to it. Yeah, that's exactly what I need, more travel. That's, that's, that's, that's all right. I've been sitting here all morning just thinking, you know, how can Shaun travel more? Yeah, that makes sense. One of the, uh, there was, I thought there was more, relatively speaking, I thought there was a little bit more innovation and product launch talks at Farm Progress compared to where we've kind of been the past number of shows in, in years. I don't know, that's just the kind of perception that I had. One of the big announcements that I think gained a lot of— gained some attention from some of our audience was the fact that Bourgault Industries and CNH have announced an alliance on seeding equipment. Under the agreement, Bourgault will manufacture co-branded Case IH and New Holland equipment for distribution across CNH's established dealer networks in North America, Australia, and other global seeding markets. Kelvin, what's your take on this one? Oh, I think it is a logical, rational next move for both these companies in terms of expanding Bourgault's network of dealers and distribution, and of course working with the CNH branding that is, like you said, it's going to be on Bourgault equipment as well. So yeah, I think it makes sense. This is also in line with overall industry trends in terms of consolidation and a move in that direction where Smaller players are working with bigger who specialise in certain areas. Big players are noticing that and saying, hey, why don't we add you to our portfolio here and maybe we can benefit each other. And I think a lot of even tying in with your comments about more innovation at Farm Progress, I think people are seeing or expecting or at least hoping for this being kind of the bottom of the ag machinery cycle, market cycle, and so they're looking to time the upswing here and take advantage of that at this time. Yeah, and this will really assist Bourgault in their US expansion as they bring technology that is an incredibly solid brand in Western Canada to farmers in some of the states like Colorado and Kansas and others. I think a big win for Bourgault. Evan, do you think this is kind of the bottom of the equipment buying cycle? I think we're going to see a turn. I mean, especially with grain prices where they are. I mean, I'm talking Canada-wise, I think we're going to see a lot more dealer action and a lot more producer buying going into the fall here because even though yields are depressed, we're still seeing some pretty high margins with where grain prices are at. I think on the Bourgault Case side, I'm relatively excited. I mean, we're seeing it with other brands, we're seeing Seedmaster and Deere and those type of collaborations. It probably extends the dealer network for Bourgault, but it does preserve the name as well because they get to keep their own dealer network as well. And then the last one, the most exciting, is probably the amount of dollars now behind the research and development. So what they can do going forward with CNH in their path, and then the integrated technology. I mean, every other company seems to be trailing when it comes to that tech side. I'm pretty excited to see that Bourgault and Case should be able to integrate their technologies now much easier because that was always the complaint from the past producers, right? Mm-hmm. Yeah, Lyndsey, I think we're going to see more of it. Like, we've talked a lot about how during downturns, you know, this is when we tend to see a lot of consolidation, and this is kind of, I think, a nice step that gets out of, like, you know, Bourgault sold. Obviously, it's a part of the Linamar family, which is a large conglomerate that has multiple other brands as well. So this, it'd be interesting to see if Salford Which is also owned by Linamar. Yep. Somehow works its way into that. I don't know. I'm making stuff up. That's not something I've heard, just so everybody knows. I'm not trying to— Yeah, let's clarify here. But I think this is a good mid-step. Well, yeah. And to Evan's point, it does feel sort of more along the lines of like companies looking strategically at where maybe another company fits, where they are, maybe not, I don't want to say behind, but maybe like where they want to leapfrog forward. Why start from scratch, right? Like, why not make a strategic partnership, not a full-on purchase or those sorts of things, which, what's the saying? I mean, John Deere would have just bought them and put green paint on it and said they did it. Anyway, we love John Deere, don't worry. Anyway, but it really to me makes a lot of sense for that strategy of, as you mentioned, Bourgault expanding into areas with that dealer support. They don't have to recreate the wheel there. And of course, Yeah. Case IH and New Holland can leverage the added technology without again having to go back to the drawing board. So to me, this is like, is it truly consolidation or is this just really strategic as far as leaping both companies forward in areas where the other excelled? I think it's really smart and maybe this is what we see more of versus that full-on taking on some other brand and it disappearing and just sort of getting worked into the mix. So yeah, we'll see. And just judging by— I'll use X as an example where everyone tends, seems to be very negative about a lot of stuff. This one got a lot of more positive responses from farmers, at least in my feed. I'm probably— that's not 100%, but at least what I saw in my feed. Okay, we're gonna take a break. We've got more coming up here on the RealAg Issues panel. Kelvin Heppner, Lyndsey Smith, Evan Shout, Back right after this. It feels good to get the last of the crop in the bin. Sure does. And next is figuring out our grain marketing plans. Lately I've been hearing a lot about a CCGA cash advance and how we can use it for cash flow on the farm now so we don't have to rush to sell our crops. This year we can get up to $500,000 interest-free. Hmm, a CCGA cash advance could be a good idea. I'll give them a call in the morning. Visit cCGA.ca for details. Cash advances are made under the Government of Canada's Advanced Payments Programme. It's summertime and you've got a lot of important decisions to make when it comes to your corn crop. Let the Corn School on RealAgriculture.com help guide you through those big decisions with input from leading experts in the field. If it's spray timing, disease identification, or any other field issue, The Corn School's got you covered. The Corn School on RealAgriculture.com, brought to you by BASF and Pride Seeds. Peter Johnson @WheatPete, RealAgriculture.com. I'm the host of The Word, and I love doing The Word. I love the questions. I love the challenges. I love having to apply agronomics to all over the globe and areas outside of my normal jurisdiction. Also, I love the feedback the most where growers challenge me, tell me about their plot results, help me to learn. The word, absolutely the best part of my day. And we are back here on RealAg Radio here on this Friday, Rural Radio 143. I know I slipped on Wednesday and some of the members of the audience Gleefully texted me rubbing it in that that didn't last long, that I wasn't gonna screw that up. So we are on Rural Radio 143. Make sure if you do talk to some of your neighbours and your friends, they're like, hey, I think they took Rural Radio off the air. No, they did not. We are on Rural Radio 143 on SiriusXM. Okay. Hey, this weekend I'm very excited because it is the opening for college. It's week 1 for college football. I know Lyndsey is also very excited. I plan to crush some real games. On TV, but why not also crush it with Maizex canola? Maizex Seeds is 100% focused on Canadian farmers and is your source for high-performance grain, silage, and grazing corn, as well as soybeans and canola. Visit maizex.com to find your local Maizex representative. Okay, we got a new Minister of Agriculture in PEI. Kelvin, what can you tell us about it? His name is Hilton McLennan. He's the new Ag Minister. There was a cabinet shuffle by Premier Rob Lance this week, and so I don't know a whole lot about Hilton McLennan as the new minister. I understand he's a former dairy farmer, also worked in the feed sector, but it also means that one of our longest-serving provincial Ag Ministers, Bloys Thompson, has moved on. And so, yeah, he would have been one of the more senior voices around the FPT table over the last couple of years. I believe going back to 2019, he was the Ag Minister. Okay. Minister in PEI for most of that time. And so, Blois Thompson moving on, the new Ag Minister representative for PEI, Hilton McLennan. You know, the only other Hilton that I know of as a first name, because I know, Lyndsey, we were talking about this, Hilton Ruggles, who Bernd Tobin on the Real Agriculture team very much knows who that is. One of the, I think, all-time goal scorers in the British Elite League ice hockey. So yeah, There is that. Scottish or Irish, what would the background be? I would think so. What would the first name be? Scottish. Well, I was just going to say we have Heath MacDonald now on a federal level, this is a MacLennan, and then of course we have MacAulay before. Are there any people in politics without a Mac last name in PEI? I would love to know. Please send it along. And PEI has an outsized, I'd say punches above its weight in terms of influencing our Our ag politics in Canada too. Yeah, I would think so too. What is going on with that red dirt? It's Anne of Green Gables all over again. Anyway, I like, I like that Kelvin actually brought it back to something outside of names here. To something important. There's real analysis going on. Way to bring that around, Kelvin. I appreciate that. Well, it segues into by-elections if we want to talk about that too. So it's been a busy week. Yeah, so yeah, very much so. We had 3 by-elections This week at the federal level, it was, yeah, on Monday, the Liberals swept all 3. There was one in Quebec, one in Toronto, and one in North Vancouver. The one in Quebec was probably the one that got the most of the attention because Liberal Danielle Gobeil won easily in that riding. What's interesting is that riding was held by the opposition Conservatives. Gobeil. Gobeil. Gobeil. Gobeil. since 2018, and the Conservative finished in 3rd place. The region is home to aluminium producers, dairy farms, and other industries caught in the escalating trade war. And he also had— sorry, go ahead. He was the leader. He was in charge of dairy, wasn't he, Kelvin? Yes, yes. Yeah, he's the head of Quebec's dairy farmer org and vice president of Dairy Farmers of Canada. Yeah, some people made a big, a real big deal about that. It is, I think, kind of common to move from farm politics into more mainstream politics. We've seen this quite a bit. Lyndsey, I guess the question is, Conservatives lose all 3 of these by-elections. What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre? What's your thoughts? Well, I mean, you could make a huge big deal out of it. I think that it probably lands somewhere in the— it's probably something, but I don't think it's a huge deal. 2 of these were not a surprise. It is the Quebec riding that maybe is a bit of a surprise and brings some things into question. It's a by-election though. It is not, you know, a federal election, etc. However, and this is not news to anyone listening, To me, the Conservative Party has a leadership problem. This leader in the current context, and I say that very, like, that's the important part here, just, is it the Carney effect or is it Pierre Poilievre? Is it a bit of both? I don't know, but I would have to think the Conservative Party is looking at their leadership with a critical eye. And has to at least think about, there are other by-elections coming up, and if this trend continues, then I think we've got something really big to talk about. This one seat really, maybe not necessarily a huge issue given the context of exactly that, Quebec, aluminium, dairy, trade war, all that sort of stuff. Okay, cool. But we will have more by-elections, and I think how those ones turn out maybe starts to indicate whether or not— And let's face it, if, if they're, if the Conservatives are going to change leadership, I feel like sooner rather than later is probably their best idea if they have any intention of actually winning an election, which is up for debate at times. Let's be honest. You know, it's, it's, it's interesting though, like Nick Nanos, he, you know, when he was on the show going back to July, his perspective is, is that the Conservatives need to just be patient. And, and so internally they may be more, Of the mindset of the one, there's nobody really wait, you know, sitting and waiting and pushing for that. You could argue maybe that Jamal Javani is somebody that is kind of indicating interest in how, in, you know, where he fits in the caucus is, I think, kind of an interesting discussion. But, you know, Nanis's opinion on the show was, is that you just, there's, it doesn't matter who the Conservative leader is right now at this time, at this moment, this is the outcome because of Canadians, majority of Canadians view that Carney is this fit to deal with the President Trump issue and the trade war. Evan, what's your thoughts on that? I probably got 2. I got, A, perception matters more than what's actually going on. So I think you're correct. I think Carney's seen as perception-wise the guy that's going to fight this, whether he's winning or not or coming out ahead, I have no idea. But perception-wise, I think is kind of that's where it sits. The other side is on the Conservative side. I haven't heard a policy. And what I mean by that is we spent so much time politicking. I get the whole let's hate the Liberal side, and that's what we're pushing. But I would really love as a voter to actually hear what I'm hating against, because I don't actually hear policies. And I haven't heard an ag policy. I haven't heard any policies, to be fair, lately. I just hear the negative side against the government we have. I would really appreciate if I could actually hear what's, what's going to change if we do change that government, right? You know what's interesting? So as you say that, in some weird ironic way, the Canadian Conservatives and the US Democrats have the exact same problem. They are policy deficient. Let's go ahead, Kelvin. Well, it is— that's the classic problem for opposition, for non-governing part, the runners-up, because the thing that unites them the most is that they don't want the party in power to remain in power. And so that's what brings them together. But yeah, I agree with Evan. Let's hear some policy. But I think that's where Poilievre is really between a rock and a hard place. It's the issue that is putting all this wind in Carney's sails right now is also a wedge in the Conservative Party at the same time. It's, it's this, the affinity for the US, the Trump administration, what people, where people stand on Canada's relationship with the US is dividing the Conservative Party right now. Meanwhile, it's giving Carney sky-high support, and the by-election results this week, I think, show that we shouldn't expect him to back down anytime soon in terms of the rhetoric because of how politically beneficial it is for him domestically. And so That's where, yeah, it's, you're right to draw the parallel, I think, Shaun, between the Democrats in the US and the Conservatives in Canada on that front, because there's what, what if they come forward with a policy, it's, it's gonna split the tent in some way. And so the one thing that unites them right now is, is not wanting the GOP, not wanting MAGA in power in the US and not wanting the Liberals in power in Canada. Yeah. Okay. We're gonna take a break. We've got more coming up here on The RealAg. Issues panel, Evan Show to the Truth About Ag podcast, Kelvin Heppner and Lyndsey Smith of RealAgriculture.com, and your host Shaun Haney back right after this. All right, I'm good to sell my grain. Just send over the contract. Bye. Dad, seriously? It's 2026. Can't you do that online? Well, yeah, I can with G3 SmartSell. I just haven't tried it yet. What's it all do? Basically, I could sell grain from my phone with a few taps. You know they make things easier for a reason, right? Besides, I'm sure you can still talk things through with your rep when you need. Who raised you to be so smart? G3, always moving for you. Get started at G3Smarter.ca. Get all the information you need to keep your pulse crop healthy and profitable with the Pulse School on RealAgriculture.com. The Pulse School is a free YouTube video series covering agronomy, research, and more across a host of different pulse crops. It's also available as an audio podcast wherever you download or stream your favourite podcasts. Cheque us out on YouTube or visit RealAgriculture.com/ThePulseSchool, brought to you by BASF Canada. I'm Lyndsey Smith, host of The Agronomist, and I want to thank you for tuning in for over 200 episodes of our beloved little programme. Join me Monday nights, 8 PM Eastern on YouTube for our live and interactive agronomy Q&A. Each week, our guest panel will handle some of your toughest agronomic questions live streaming on YouTube, Facebook, X, and RealAgriculture.com. Tune in Monday nights or go to RealAgriculture.com/agronomist and sign up for our email notifications and don't miss an episode. And welcome back to RealAg Radio here on this Friday. Shaun Hey, I'm Darren Heide, your host, joined by Evan Schout, host of Truth About Ag podcast, Maverick Ag, and farmer coach. Also Kelvin Heppner and Lyndsey Smith from RealAgriculture.com. Farmers seeding into strip straw and heavy residue need equipment designed for those kinds of conditions. You just can't do this with any sort of drill behind you. The Kayhart Spider Disc Drill is designed to place seed into moisture with minimal soil disturbance. Learn more at Kayhart.com. Find out more at KayhartIndustries.com. We've been talking to some of those SPYDER customers as of late here on the show. It has been really fun, really interesting to see how their mindset around the connection of harvest to the spring and how they deal with some of that residue, not trash, I've learned this, it is residue. Lyndsey has also corrected me in the past as well. Find out more by going to KayhartIndustries.com. Kayhart Industries. Okay, Kelvin, we got some jobs numbers out for Canada and the US. Canada's not so hot. Yeah, Canada, the numbers down 42,000 in August, so reversing the gain that we saw earlier in summer. I believe it was like 180-some thousand positive before August. Now we're down 42,000, leaving year-to-date job growth at around 27,000. So It also means, well, unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%, which is still elevated, but yeah, no change in August on the unemployment rate. So yeah, less positive. And this kind of follows what some people have been saying in terms of GDP as well. Last week we talked about positive July GDP numbers or second quarter GDP numbers. Expectation is that Q3 is going to be not as positive. Yeah. And in the US, the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Analysts were expecting 53,000 jobs and they posted a, you know, the Wall Street Journal lists the title as US adds a whopping 162,000 jobs in a bright, which is a, in a bright spot for the economy. Would be interesting to see because up until this point, Canada has been adding more net jobs than the US. I'd have to do a recalculation on where all that is at. And Kelvin, the bond market continues to get so much attention. Oh, and as it should with the way the US deficit has increased and is continuing to increase, other countries too, and borrowing costs. I expect— I haven't got the tattoo yet, but inflation is a word that we're going to be using a lot more in the future. It's inevitable at this time, at this point. Yeah, I've said this on the show previously. If you want to know who rules the world, it's the bond market. And yeah, what they're saying— Interesting. I heard a whole discussion yesterday on Bloomberg Radio about, you know, the question that some economists are asking though, is the bond market getting too far ahead of itself pricing in rate increases because there is such a gap between the 10-year versus where we currently are with the Fed rate. And there was a pretty good debate back and forth and 2 sides to that argument for sure. But borrowing costs, considering the level of debt that we have in the industry of agriculture, Evan, I think carrying that debt load is something that definitely needs to be something that individual farms are looking at because that cost seems to be going up as we start to see the Bank of Canada raise rates, which is expected the next meeting. And also, we're going to see it in the US. Yeah, I think we're starting to see it on producer farms a little more closely now. And part of it is, I mean, the Bank of Canada held. So I mean, the variable rate's been sticking tight, but the long-term fixed and swap rates obviously follow more of the bond market. And in the end, I think, I mean, 2 things. One, your jobs report, we're probably going to continue to see high cost on fertiliser and equipment coming into Canada. And I mean, that's a guarantee. So that one's pretty clear. And then on the other side, the revenue side, as the exchange rate stays where it is or gets worse based on that, We're going to see obviously top line revenue sit high. But on interest rates, I don't have a lot of producers looking at long-term financing right now when it comes to equipment or land, they're probably sitting more idle than they have in the past, probably going to force guys out of new equipment into used equipment a little more just based on the amount of debt load that they want to carry or that they're comfortable with. And then the last part is you're going to see a lot more creative financing from probably the retail. So the John Deere Finances, the CNH Capital, you're going to get some 0% out of them probably just to buy you know, certain deals where the banks won't be able to compete with some of that just based on this data. Producer Jay, do you have the Canada-US dollar exchange rate chart? I love that we're bringing Producer Jay into the mix, everybody. Yeah, so this is, you know, for those of you watching on YouTube, this is the last year and we can see that we've moved anywhere from You know, south of 70 cents to just over 74 cents. Lyndsey, I, I, based on a lot of the discussions about the weakness going forward potentially for the US dollar, paying attention to this currency exchange based on the amount of export Canada does, but also the amount of purchases Canada does out of the US on, on, on obviously equipment and Never mind the tariff issues, that gets a lot of oxygen of course, but I think we need to be paying a lot of attention right now to exchange rates. Well, and so this is one of those topics that I think for many people it does sort of drop down the list of interest or time spent looking into it or whatever. Yes, largely because I mean there's not a lot that we have as far as control over it, but I think like to Evan's point, It ends up factoring in way more than you think when it comes to exactly that, purchases and our exports and all those sorts of things. So as much as we have zero control over where it goes, where the Canadian dollar is trading at has a huge impact on so many big picture decisions that end up happening on the farm. So it is not my favourite topic, I'll admit it, but it is one of those that, especially over the years, I realise and recognise just how important it is. So it pays to pay a bit more attention to not only what it's doing, but where we might be headed, because it does end up trickling into so many other things. Also, before you go on to the next person, I just want to ask Kelvin if the inflation tattoo is a neck tattoo, or is it like across the back, or is it like the full chest? Oh, neck. Get neck. Like forehead. Right. Oh, forehead. Even better. Okay. I was going with neck, but okay. All right. Carry on. I am always amazed at the commitment that people have when they do get like a forehead tattoo. That is commitment. Or bad decisions. I was going to say commitment's not the word I would have used though. I'll keep it inside though. Yeah, Lyndsey, if you don't like currency rate discussions, you would have not enjoyed dinner conversations at the Haney house while Shaun was a young teenager because I'll be honest, my dad a lot of times would lead with, you know, his conversation starter and is like, what do you think about the Canadian dollar? You're like, I don't know, Dad, I'm trying to get through grade 7. So I grew up in a feedyard environment where a high majority of feedyards are hedging the Canadian dollar versus the US. It's a part of the risk management, okay, the use of futures and options and just trying to manage that because of the, you know, the live cattle futures in the US and the currency rate exchange. Impact. Evan, I think if we looked at agriculture across a broad spectrum, we know that the currency exchange is a factor, but I would assume that there's not a lot of hedging going on when it comes to that exchange rate. No, and I think it probably ties back when I was on a couple of weeks ago, Shaun, and we were talking about all the other things that guys are trying to manage, right? Your input costs over the last 24 months, your commodity grains, your diesel, your land, your interest rates, I think we're just throwing more stuff on top, right? And don't get me wrong, the top producers probably have this bar chart somewhere on their analysis every week, or at least to watch it. Are they hedging it? I hope not, because to be fair, the majority would not do well in hedging markets we've seen in the past, but they're watching it, let's put it that way. And between that or they're hedging oil on fuel futures and natural gas on nitrogen, there is a significant gap on that side of the business side of agriculture, I think, where you have a few percentile that are doing all of that. Yeah. Like you said, the feedlots, they concentrated on a little more on the grain side. I think it's rather new for guys to watch it and there won't be a lot doing it. I was talking to a farmer last night who, because of the added liquidity that's in the soybean oil market and how closely— Evan, you and I were talking about this earlier yesterday, how closely tied canola is right now to the soybean oil future. They've been using soybean oil futures to do some of their hedging relative to canola because of the added liquidity. Now, Producer Jay, quick, do you have the 5-year chart as well that you could put up of the Canadian dollar? Because I think this proves a little bit more of the point in the volatility. Whoa. Yeah. Wow. Sorry, this is more than 5 years. This is going back to pre-2005. That's 20 years. Yeah, that's okay. So I think it shows you though where we have been and where we are, relatively speaking, the duration, you know, that x-axis of a chart. Can make a real difference on how you view volatility. Wow. I want to ask Kelvin a question, Shaun. Is that okay? Yeah, go for it. What would the price of canola be if we were in 2010 at $1.05? Back of the napkin math. Yeah. Yeah, it would be a substantial— it would be a fraction of what it is now. But I think in the long term, Canadian-US dollar relationship will be relatively steady. It's more in the short to medium term because the Bank of Canada can't have our dollar return to a dollar— can't— we can't return to par for our economy's sake. So I, I think the man— as much as central banks can manage it, they're going to try to have the Canadian dollar maintain it. Not— no dramatic changes in the, in the medium to long term. It's the short to medium term blips that are going to be where we got caught on the currency issue, I think. Yeah, it's, uh, I was just thinking, what would fat cattle be worth if we got back to a 1-to-5? Not enough. Wow, not enough. That's my very qualitative answer to Evan's question. And Evan and I were talking about this yesterday, is If we, you know, just because the US dollar, if it does decline and depreciate, it's weak, it doesn't mean the Canadian dollar is an inverse relationship, right? The US dollar trades against all major currencies in the world, so it could hold the range of 70 to 74. It just may be massively more expensive for Canadians to go, you know, to buy euros or pounds and things like that. Yeah. So just, that's an important— sometimes I think we get trapped a little bit in like this, it's always this It's inverse, US dollar weak, Canadian dollar goes the other way. It's not necessarily— That's what I mean. I think it's gonna— Canadian dollar has to follow the US, whichever direction the US heads. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, we've got more to discuss here on the RealAg Issues panel. We're gonna take a quick break. We're back talking about what is going on at Churchill. Is this the promise? Is it going to deliver on the promise that a lot of people are making, as we saw Some shipments out of Churchill here recently. You're listening to RealAg Radio, Rural Radio 147 SiriusXM. I said 140, 143. Back right after this. Get ahead for next season and get rewarded for planning early. Buy and take home Vantage Ag products by October 12th and save 10% off current suggested retail prices. Then buy with confidence with our best price protection programme. If prices drop later, we'll rebate the difference, guaranteeing you this year's best price. With nutrients delivered directly to the plant, Vantage Ag helps you use less, pay less, and get better results. Lock in your savings by October 12th at vantage.ag. The Canola School on RealAgriculture.com is your one-stop shop for everything a canola grower needs. Cheque out our free video series on YouTube For all the latest in canola agronomy, research, marketing, and more. Don't have time to watch? Download the podcast version of The Canola School on RealAgriculture.com or anywhere you download your podcasts. Stay on top of all things canola with The Canola School on RealAgriculture.com, brought to you by BASF and InVigor hybrid canola. Really encourage everybody to cheque out this past Tuesday's episode of the show. We did the interview with Ken Forth, who is one of the inductees into the Canadian Agricultural Hall of Fame. Really enjoyed my discussion with Ken. I had never met him prior to that discussion, and it was really inspiring. Somebody that's really stepped up and participated in farm politics, farm policy, heavily involved when it came to the Temporary Foreign Worker Programme, which obviously has a benefit in the horticulture industry where he's a blueberry farmer, where his background is, but also a whole bunch of different sections of agriculture. I encourage you to go back and listen to that. Why I mentioned that is there's an opportunity here in Saskatchewan. Are you interested in making a difference in Saskatchewan's agriculture? Saskatchewan Pulse Growers and SaskOilseeds are looking for producers to bring their voice to the table and serve on their boards. Nominations close September 11th, that's coming up very quickly here everybody. Director nomination forms are available at saspulse.com and saskoilseeds.com. We've got more of those Canadian Agricultural Hall of Fame interviews coming up here in the next few weeks. Brian Rossenagle, a famous plant breeder in Western Canada, is one of them. I think you're going to enjoy them, I know I've enjoyed recording them and so I hope you enjoy listening to them. Just as much. Kelvin, we had news on Churchill, and I'll be honest, it is a little bit confusing on how excited we should be. Crews at the Port of Churchill are loading the facility's first grain export vessel since 2020, preparing to send approximately 30,000 tonnes of Western Canadian durum wheat to Europe for AGT Foods and Ingredients. So, Calvin, I guess, is there a signal here or is this noise? How do you view the Churchill loading this vessel? Oh boy, that's the big question and this has kind of been a dream and an idea that makes a lot of sense in theory for a long time and yet to see follow-through and this is the latest, I'd say, attempt at kind of proving the concept. Yeah, that's a great concept. And so AGT has a long history ties to Churchill. AGT was actually one of the— a part owner, a 50% shareholder in the port and railway from 2018 to 2021. Now that the port has received some federal and provincial financing to get back in shape for handling grain, they're the first company that's moving grain. They're planning to load 3 ships through Churchill this summer. There is also talk about this being the most diversified shipping season for Churchill in its history, as they're also shipping some zinc concentrate minerals and also The first-ever export of potash fertiliser mined here in Manitoba later this shipping season. I don't know, it's one of these things too where, sure, in the short to medium term, I'm not sure how much sense it makes, but in the long term, there's been a couple studies done this summer. They were released a couple weeks ago and the federal and Manitoba governments had a big press release and statements celebrating these reports, which said that the longer shipping season as weather changes and as there isn't as much ice up north, They say these studies found— one was done through the University of Manitoba, there's some other academics involved— saying that Churchill navigation is possible with ice-capable— so these are reinforced ships, but you don't actually need icebreakers in the future to get to Churchill. And so that opens up year-round shipping, which is a game changer for the Port of Churchill. You still have to deal with the permafrost and the muskeg and the shifting ground underneath the rail line getting up there. That's always going to be a major factor. I'm sure engineers can solve it, it's just a matter of how expensive it is. And so this is all part— like, we've seen the Carney government highlight Churchill, the Churchill Plus project they're calling it, as part of the, the Major Projects Office list. Uh, so it is something that the government's certainly leaning into as the north and the Arctic becomes, uh, more developed and becomes more important in terms of geopolitics and that type of thing. Certainly Churchill is a strategic port for that reason as well. A lot of the shipping, when you look at the distances on a globe from Churchill to Europe or to some key Canadian export markets, it is a much shorter distance, much more efficient than going through the St. Lawrence or going through, going across the entire Atlantic Ocean. And so it makes a lot of sense in theory, but yeah, it's— there's some pretty big realities and engineering things and costs that add up in terms of tapping into that. And so I guess this is the latest proof of concept that, as they're trying to prove that it is potentially viable. And to be fair, you know, I just finished The National Dream by Pierre Berton. You know, some of the constraints when they were, you know, trying to figure out how to connect Eastern Canada to British Columbia and have a national railway, there was the same kind of barriers. Like, you know, how would we ever get through the Canadian Shield, never mind the Rocky Mountains, but, you know, how do we actually get through These, you know, the miles and miles and miles of rock, we overcame that. This is a different issue, but Evan, we also have challenges at other ports, never mind Churchill. We've got other issues at ports like Vancouver still. Yeah, I think, and I mean, Kelvin only said in theory about 10 times there, so we're good. Theoretically, yes, this is a good thing. I mean, we We get some year-round reliability on it might be the issue, right? We're getting seasonal capacity to run through Churchill, which then does take some of the, let's call it the back leg off the other ports. But again, as you said, Shaun, we've got enough issues on the other ports that probably need enough investment into the infrastructure to get it moving. We know how unreliable and how inefficient we have on the Port of Vancouver. And so, I mean, when we start looking at stuff like that, is this a great thing in the long run if it works? Yes. But again, scepticism is probably there. It will improve basis numbers. It does give us another route for northern Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba farmers probably to move grain that way. It does relieve the bottlenecks. And the last one probably is if we could, I mean, if we can get it to that point, it takes out some of the volatility we've seen lately between mudslides, rail strikes, all that stuff on that side of the country. So it is a great thing. If theoretically it works. Lyndsey, I know you love trains. I do love trains. Here, go ahead. I do love trains. I will qualify that with I don't love railways necessarily, but I do love trains. They are super cool. I think moving things by rail is brilliant, and exactly that, if we can solve some of the issues in an economical way, like that's part of it, right? Like to that theoretical and, you know, on paper kind of thing. I mean, we can do amazing things depending on the cost. I mean, if money is no object, oh my gosh. Money is an object, right? We can't necessarily just do everything because we want to. We still have to think about the economics of it all. But I do love trains. I have never actually done the train ride up to Churchill. Probably should at some point. I don't think I love polar bears enough to go and do it. My parents have done it. They said it's beautiful. I know many people who have, so there you go. Probably something I should do. But I will say, just to Evan's point of having other outlets, I mean, same thing with like Thunder Bay and through the Great Lakes and that sort of stuff. Like, the more capacity we have as many directions as possible would be a good thing. So that's great, but at what cost? So here's the thing though, if we feel confident in it and it fits into the USMCA+ strategy, increasing trade diversification growth going forward, should money be the barrier? Like, should we— is this like a strategic asset for Canada where money shouldn't be an object? Can I double down? Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah. I would argue more, is that the right place to put it? Or do we put it into the existing system and fix the inefficiencies we currently have? Is that a better investment? I don't know the answer. But that would be more my question is more resource allocation. Does it go towards getting Churchill to be year-round? Or should we be fixing the inefficiencies that we know are already there? And maybe we can't fix those. But I think I'm just not sure where the resource allocation should go. Well, when I was— if you look at— go ahead, Calvin, go ahead. One factor to consider there, if you look at growing markets around the world, they're more on the Pacific side of the ocean than on the European side of the ocean, probably. Yeah, that's a good point too. Could be an opportunity as well for farmers in, say, like North Dakota, go north on the BN into Winnipeg, and that's an access for the Northern Plains into Europe too. I said that on RFD-TV yesterday, which is an interesting— there I go again thinking more North American. I know that's not in vogue, but hey, Lyndsey, announcement from Pioneer. Oh yeah, seeds per bag. Seeds per bag. Now they are not the first to do this by any stretch of the imagination, but they're getting in line with everybody else. Yes, and I think that's the important point here, and I do like the way we're going. So this is for canola. This will be for the 2027 season. Farmers who buy the Pioneer brand canola will see that seeds per bag, and so one bag will do, I think it's 10 acres. They've got some resources out there to help you figure out your seeding rate and all those sorts of things. There are some tables there on seed size, etc. I think that this exactly that, it gets us more in line where there's some consistency across companies. on apples-to-apples comparisons on pricing or how you're going to plan your canola seeding rates, etc. Still did hear, so overarching the feedback was positive from people, exactly that, saying, hey, it's about time, glad to see it, but then there were those who were like, oh, this is just another way to sell small seed, etc. And I have to, I would like to point out for factual sake That seed size is actually not terribly related to seed vigour and/or how well those seeds germinate. We can, I mean, yes, okay, there's extremes on either end of way too big or way too small, but we do have other ways to test to make sure that the seed germinates as it should and grows as it should. So I did want to put that one out there because people like to complain. But anyway, I mean, it's nice to see. I just hope more people are doing things like seeds per acre in their decisions versus bushels per acre when it comes to deciding how to seed things. So I think it's good. Yeah, please. My agronomic may not be at the top end, but I, I'm on you on that one for sure. Yeah. Hey, we've got one more segment and a bonus coming up here on RealAg Radio. We are back here on SiriusXM right after this. Built on over 100 years of seed innovation and unwavering commitment to farmers, Pioneer 100 Series canola hybrids deliver a step change in yield performance and agronomic traits. This isn't just better canola, it's different canola. Pioneer 100 Series. Contact your local Pioneer sales representative or visit pioneer.com/100series to learn more today. Hi, I'm Bernard Tobin, host of the Soybean School on RealAgriculture.com. Throughout the year on the Soybean School, we'll bring you timely agronomic video content from planting to harvest, from the latest agronomic research to the latest in production technology. Cheque out our massive video library on YouTube, RealAgriculture.com, or download the audio podcast versions wherever you get your podcasts. The Soybean School is brought to you by Maizex Seeds and Lallemand Plant Care. And we're back here on RealAg Radio, Rural Radio 143, SiriusXM. It is of course Labour Day weekend and it is kind of the last weekend of kind of summer, how a lot of people look at it. And typically not a weekend where farmers look to do much camping and it's kind of always, this is kind of usually a busy weekend when it comes to Farming. Some of the rain probably has put a bit of a damper on that for a lot of people. Kelvin, any big Labour Day plans? No big plans here, no. Our kids here in Manitoba only go back to school this coming week, so I know a lot of provinces and states, kids are already back in school, but here, this is our last weekend with the kids at home, and we get into hockey season here in the thick of it in a hurry as well, so this is the last weekend to kind of get things in order at home. Lyndsey, what are you doing? I'm going to fly to Winnipeg for a family wedding, so I'm super pumped. I'm off next week, you're gonna be in Manitoba all week. My nephew gets married on the Monday, on Labour Day, so I'm super pumped. That's— I would not think that's a big weekend, or a big weekend for weddings. You know what, but I'm loving it. It's fantastic. They're getting married on a Monday, probably save some money, which I'm all for. And yeah, and it's a great week to go visit because Chris is coming with me And he does not like Winnipeg in December. So September, way better. I know, I can't imagine why he wouldn't love it in December. We were talking about PEI earlier. That's how I feel about PEI. January, no thank you. July, yes please. Yeah, exactly. Evan, besides punching numbers into your calculator, what are you doing this weekend? You just said it, actually. Holiday Monday is my favourite day because I can come in the office and it is quiet. And especially in September, I mean, it's raining, which might put a damper on it, but if it's not raining and they're in the field, it is just a quiet, relaxing day to punch numbers into my calculator, as you said. There you go. Holidays can be a nice day to catch up. If you have any feedback on today's show, send me an email, shaney@realagriculture.com. Have a great weekend, everybody, and we'll chat with you again next week. Cheers. You're supporting this RealAg Radio podcast brought to you by CropPlan. Found your Golden Ticket yet? It's your ticket to trusted genetics, high yield potential, and strong disease resistance, plus the chance to win up to $25,000 in free CropPlan seed. Cheque your CropPlan bag, scan the code, and see if you're a winner. Go to goldenticket.cropplan.ca for more details or ask your independent ag retailer. And we're in the bonus. Here we are. This is the bonus segment for everybody that watches on YouTube and listens to the RealAg Radio Podcast. We've put the SiriusXM away and here we are in the raw where things can get a little bit heated from time to time. If you listened to last week's show, you definitely heard that Kelvin thinks I spend too much time trying to be right. I think that's what he had sent me a text about. That's fantastic. Yep, that's what I said, yeah. That is pretty close to what you said. Sounds about right. One of the things we didn't get to, and at the time of recording, that meeting at the White House has not happened on cattle. For avid listeners of this show, people that get those RealAgriculture email updates, we've been talking about mCool, and it is something that has very much resurfaced I really picked up on this and got the vibe when I was in D.C. going back to April, and at the NAFB meeting we got a chance to listen to some speeches from different members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. There was a lot of talk about support on mCool at that time. It was not in the House version of the Farm Bill. It is likely to be in the Senate version. At committee, it was passed by committee 17 to 6 vote, although The Senate version of the Farm Bill has not moved yet to the Senate floor. It is still at committee. We are going to see a meeting at the White House today. Secretary Rollins, who has shown verbal support for MCOOL in the past and again this week. Lyndsey, it really feels like MCOOL is a reality that Mexico and Canada are going to have to be dealing with, WTO compliance or not. Well, and that is, I guess, one of the points that we'll have to navigate is I'm not sure what WTO-compliant Emcool looks like. Do they actually care if it is? I'm saying the US here, I don't know. And also, does it achieve what they wanted to achieve? I mean, maybe politically speaking it It gets them some pull as far as the administration goes, but ultimately reality is still reality, markets are still markets. mCool will add costs, it's not going to bring down the price of beef, that's for darn sure. And remember, this also would impact pork, and we heard from the Manitoba Pork Council on this this week too. So politically, I guess it's popular, and frankly, after the Bringing in however many thousand tonnes of beef from some mysterious source the other week, they probably need to buy some of those votes back from their rancher base. So yeah, I mean, from a Canadian-Mexican perspective, not good news. But I don't know that any of us really— I don't know, do we figure we could make a significant change like stopping something like M. cool because it is predicated so much on a North American market of this idea that M. cool doesn't serve the North American market? I just feel like it's a bit of a lost cause, to be honest. But yeah, that's my sense. The argument— yeah, so I think the argument that Canada and Mexico used previously to repeal the legislation or get the U.S. to repeal it, I don't think that argument holds up in today's environment with this administration. And I kind of think, you know, that from Congress's standpoint, the WTO compliance has been kind of a caveat for those that are supporting it. It must be WTO compliant. Kelvin, I just don't think that— well, there potentially is— I don't know, I would— we can get creative, I guess. I suggested that maybe we need to move to more of a North American label. That probably— I'm not exactly, you know, I think that's going to be a hard sell. Mexico, you know, what I heard from some people in the beef industry in the US is that A US-Canada label is much higher potential. Mexico is more of the challenge there when it comes to that kind of idea. I just think this, it kind of feels like a foregone conclusion. I don't know, maybe I'm getting too far ahead of myself, but— And this would be the Trump administration style to implement something even by executive order and ask for Congress to back it later, or not even like to go ahead with something, whether we're talking about invading another country or that type of thing, or something like labelling meat in the grocery store, it wouldn't be unprecedented for President Trump to sign an executive order of something that in the past Congress would have— it would have had to go through Congress. So that's where, to me, the idea of it being WTO compliant, though, means that there's no discrimination, no segregation required of Canadian and Mexican cattle. And I'm not sure how this can be done without having some sort of discrimination or segregation along the way. And that's where Canada does still have that WTO ruling. Right. That it can hand out if it would, like, in terms of putting retaliatory tariffs on. Canada still has that card to play. And then you get into the context of this trade war and the counter tariffs coming into effect on Tuesday, and J.D. Vance saying that the U.S. isn't going to take that without hitting back again, and that type of thing, and looking at banning products. Is this— how does this all factor into that whole thing as well? And we are maybe getting ahead of ourselves here in terms of anticipating this announcement today actually is MNP. We don't know that at this point, whether they're going to be announcing as specifically as what we're talking about here. And Lyndsey, I'm not so sure that pork is going to be involved. This is one of the concerns that everybody has. The Farm Bill, what the Senate or what the Senate Ag Committee approved in the draught Farm Bill is not for pork. It's just beef. Yeah. I would just like to point out that lamb is also like still in like a BSE mess. So like, Not all the proteins get treated the same across the border anyway. Okay, but on that point though, there's a bit of a signal there. So earlier this week, uh, when Secretary Rollins put out her, uh, the programme, you know, trying to encourage ranchers to retain heifers, they mentioned sheep in that. And I think that's a bit of a tell because that is a— that tells you that R-CALF has high influence in this because they represent cattle and sheep. Well, and R-CALF is bringing along— they've also right now there's a push to— so this is where it comes full circle though. Right now there is an ITC hearing on tariffing imports of lamb from Australia, New Zealand, etc. So, and that's all R-CALF. So yeah, all in the same mix. I can also tell you that the Canadian livestock sector is very concerned about the Product of Canada label and some of its rules. People have said to me, we're not all lily white and clean here, and so we're talking out both sides of our mouth. There's concerns about some of the challenges that label presents in trying to battle this new potential labelling issue in the U.S. Remember, the Product of USA label that is already in place is a voluntary label. There's not been a lot of uptake. There are a list of packing houses that are focusing on this label, but not all are because of the restrictiveness of that label. Born, raised, fed, slaughtered, packaged, you know, every— the whole gamut from soup to nuts. Being US-based. So there hasn't been a large uptake, and because there hasn't been a large uptake, and the fact is, as Lyndsey indicated, the 300,000 metric tonnes that President Trump did a side deal with, you know, Wall Street— US Farm Report said it first, Wall Street Journal reported it this week— it was a side deal that was done directly with the Batista brothers that own JPS. And, you know, as Tyne Morgan, host of US Farm Report, pointed out also, the Batista brothers also donated a lot of money to Melania's movie, so there's a connection there. And, you know, anyway, okay, Evan, I want to talk to you about prices. And yes, okay. Thank you for switching gears, Evan. You know, what's interesting is that the Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index, the only positive number through the entire year has been farmers being bullish commodities, and they've been right. We have seen serious price appreciation in these markets. We've got canola right now trading above $8.20 a metric tonne. If we look in the last year, we've got corn up 29%, soybeans up 29%, canola up 33%, Spring wheat up about $25 and cotton up $35. Those are some pretty strong pricing numbers. Does that mean higher profits? I'll give you the easy answer. I believe it does, and for a couple of reasons. One, we talked earlier about the yield demographics right now, especially in Saskatchewan, much rather Western Canada, we're probably looking at average to slightly below average. But again, last November, we were looking at $12.50 canola, and all of a sudden we are in the $16, $17, $18 range. Even at these yields, those prices do work on most farms. Obviously, the high cost of production guys will have a little more trouble, but I think, let's call it a false sense of security. And what I mean by that is we dodged a bullet that we probably didn't know we were going to dodge this year. We expected '26 to be a bad year. Prices did what they did. I'd be more interested on your segment if the bullish comment was based on they thought supply-demand Or they knew that the amount of war and geopolitical was coming. Theoretically, we still don't have a real commodity market that follows the supply-demand metrics as closely as we probably want it to be. So I've got a lot of guys that hedging losses, I mean, margin calls, guys got it wrong on the guesses, let's call it. So in that term, I think we have this false sense that all of a sudden we know that supply's low and that's driving prices. And I don't believe that's the main or the most legitimate factor. I have a thought here. Go ahead. I think farmers, we just have a baseline optimism that the market needs more of what we're growing. I think that's just inherent in farming is that we think the market, there isn't as much of this as what they're like. It's just part of the optimism of farming is believing that your product that you're growing demand is higher than what, and that prices should be higher. I think that is part of, it's just a baseline natural instinct that we have, or way of thinking perspective that we have. Shaun, Kelvin does not spend enough time on social media because he just said optimism and I must have missed those posts. I must have missed those posts, Shaun. Oh yeah, I guess. Okay. There is fundamentals though. Okay. So like you look at canola, okay. Strong, strong demand for canola oil tied to the US biofuel market. Tight supply. The balance sheet is very tight. You look at corn, for example, which, that's the commodity we need to lead us higher. We don't need wheat. Wheat is fake. We need corn to lead this entire commodity complex higher. And the corn balance sheet in the US is not exactly really abundant. Right. Exports have been very strong, ethanol grind has been very strong, and yields this year, if you look at the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, they've got a 172 and change. Now we're going to get a USDA WASDE report next week. I don't think expectations are going to be there, be all the way down to the Pro Farmer number, but I was talking to Chip Forrie yesterday who was on the western leg of the tour and there's real concern about some of— because last— Dan Bosse was on AgriTalk yesterday from AgResource. There's 2 things that stuck out to me. He said that if you look at last year's record yield, it was really led by the fringe states, North Dakota for example, where there is 4.5 million acres of corn, which is more than the Canadian crop in total, but in U.S. terms, it's a fringe state from a corn production standpoint. That crop is not there this year. It has been immensely dry through North Dakota, so he doesn't believe that We're at some of those previous $180 numbers either. The other thing that he pointed out, that Dan pointed out, to your point, Evan, he was really recommending calls because he didn't think this is a time to be in the futures market because people won't be able to handle the margin calls and the volatility that is in front of us. His recommendation was sell some crop, buy some calls, be long on paper still, but take advantage of some of these prices that are out there with your physical crop was what he was talking about. What are your thoughts on that? Well, and I think you and I talked about it yesterday when we were doing a recording that's coming out on The Truth About Ag and the Future. And it was, we talked about, I would love to do some of that stuff on next year's crop, but I believe there's a whole bunch of margin calls in between then and now, and I'm not sure I want to spend my operating credit on some of that. So there's a significant, I think there's still significant volatility. I mean, go back a month and a half, we had 23 million acres of canola and everybody thought, okay, Now all of a sudden, the price is going to go down, we got more canola than we've ever had. Well, now we didn't get that rain in July. And all of a sudden, we're seeing now it's the other way. So yes, supply demand is that perception. But I still think, I mean, the 17 million going to the new crush, and like you said, the biodiversity, those are all driving factors on supply. But canola has gone up and down throughout the last 3 months. There is no constant. And if you were looking at supply demand, Once we knew what the average, let's call it the average yields are right now, I would have assumed we'd had a more constant steady growth rate. Yeah, and when we have a higher VIX when it comes to some of these futures markets, that does present opportunity, right? Like in the most, in the highest VIX kind of markets, that's when we do need to be more on top of this kind of stuff to the downside and to the upside. And Evan, you and I were talking about this yesterday, paying attention on the combine, Not thinking about this stuff post, you know, harvest being completed, multitasking on some of this stuff is critical. Kelvin, were you trying to say something? Well, I just, we're talking about fundamentals here and justification for prices being higher, but a lot of this is also being driven by managed money coming into our futures, into some of our ag commodities, into the corn market right now, and I'm curious what's driving that because that's something I don't under— I'm wrestling with how, why the managed money is flowing in, if this has to do with inflation concerns and again about whether there's, whether the thought is as the US dollar gets devalued, that's good for US ag exports. Is that why the managed money is coming into, into our— I think it's coming in, well, I think that's a part of it, but I think part of it is the fundamental storey on corn. For listeners of, okay, yeah, like I think on, if you, from an AgriTalk perspective, I think Chip and I and Jim, we've been talking about how being long corn going back months, right? Things lining up from that perspective there. Jim has even talked about how he's been hearing out of USDA some concerns about how tight the corn balance sheet is going to be domestically because of some of those strong export numbers and things like that, which this does create some havoc from a livestock perspective because corn is obviously the main feed crop. And so Tough for feedyards right now. Like, we talked about the profit, and we've got a storey that's going up on RealAgriculture.com today, the difference in the financial situation now and looking forward between crop farmers and livestock producers. Okay, that— but that's mainly tied to the ranch. That is not cattle feeders. Cattle feeders are really on a— they're in a— you want to talk about risk environment, they are on a risk like The risk for cattle feeders is like beyond maybe anything we have currently, right, right, right now. The one thing we didn't talk about, we went through a whole show and didn't talk about tariffs. We didn't. September 8th. Yeah, I mentioned it before, the counter tariffs coming into effect on Tuesday. Yeah. So are we gonna see those counter tariffs on Tuesday, Kelvin? Yeah. Yeah. Lindsay, what do you think? Yeah, unfortunately. I don't agree, but yeah. You don't agree? Expand on that. Like, I don't agree with counter tariffs, but I think, yes, I don't think we see any movement between now and Tuesday. Absolutely. Evan, what concerns me is this idea will not go away of this idea of putting export duties on energy and potash. Yeah, I think we have an unrealistic expectation of what happens when we do that. I mean, we've got a whole perception that that would be awesome and it would really hurt the US. Do we know where the rest of our fertiliser that we utilise comes from? Because I think some, you know, some society and maybe even some producers believe that that is a trigger mechanism we should use because potash is so important. I would argue that they've got a lot more resources that we need in the same facet, let's call it. So I'm not positive I want to see that, but I'm with them. I think come next week we're going to see counter-terrors. Yeah, it really seems like there is not— there's no open communication happening on the— on like in public. Doesn't mean there's not back-channel talks happening. We don't know about that, but there really has not been a lot of change in the relationship. And, you know, it seems like Prime Minister Carney— and I'm really paraphrasing, putting words in his mouth— but it's been kind of like, until the US decides to grow up and actually want to negotiate, we're just going to stay where we are. And the US, the members of cabinet, Treasury Secretary Bassett, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, are very much on this offensive that, you know, This is basically Prime Minister Carney deciding to bury his own economy. And so we're kind of still in the messaging, like the positioning, like trying to justify what happened on that Friday afternoon. Sorry, go ahead, Lyndsey. Well, no, and I was just going to say, like, in my mind, and this is probably not a terribly popular opinion because I get that everybody wants to be like the whole, we have to hit back, we can't just do nothing. And I don't entirely disagree, or I understand where that comes from. But to quote, and it's not his quote, but my new favourite economist, Justin Wolfers, our own tariffs are just putting rocks in our own harbour, right? In my mind, I have 3 kids. When somebody has a tantrum and is being ridiculous, honestly, sometimes just walking away is the best thing to do and then letting them sort themselves out. I just feel like adding counter-tariffs and all this sort of stuff just gives it undue attention That honestly, with this administration, I don't think that it really serves our purpose. I think like exactly that, there's back channels still open, etc. I would rather the least amount of attention paid right now would be the best thing. At the same time, politically, I understand where from a Canadian perspective it's like, well, you have to do something. And I just, I don't know, I'm, I, I just think it's going to hurt us too. Yeah. And right now I would rather just focus on not hurting us and move on. But anyway, it's unpopular. The best thing I saw come out of this is I saw somebody ask Grok the other day how long it would take the US to invade Canada, and it was within hours. Who was asked what? Who? They asked Grok. Oh, they asked Grok. Oh God. If the US invaded Canada, how long would it take? And it said within hours. Okay, hang on, they have to find it first. And then, yeah, they gotta know where it is. Like, come on, they have to actually know where it is. And it's further than— There was, there was a US military, uh, I can't, I don't know, I can't remember the, the, the rank, um, but he was asked that question by the media, should Canada be preparing for an invasion? And he had said, uh, he just like just said he was honestly offended by the question. About the ridiculousness of it. He really pushed back on it. Yeah, I thought that was a— his answer was good. He made some comment about 2 submarines, I think. No, that was Treasury Secretary— that was Vicente. Oh. Which was pretty good Canadian knowledge, the fact that he knew that the West Indian Timor has 2 submarines. I've been in them. Not anymore. They're a little bit older now. They haven't had them in a long time, Shaun. That's like from the '90s. He didn't mention the— yeah, he didn't. Anyway. They're not there anymore. The water slides. The water slides were great at West Edmonton Mall. That's a really good roller coaster. Remember when people got trapped upside down on it? I don't, I don't do roller coasters. No, I do not do roller coasters. Producer Jay, have you been on that roller coaster? I certainly have. And did you get caught upside down? It's the only roller coaster I have not been queasy on. Oh, no, I don't do roller coasters. Yeah, here, uh, our, our friend, uh, the Google AI overview says the submarine stopped operating at West Edmonton Mall in 2005. They ran from 1985 to 2005. Oh, I didn't know that. Not up to date. Oh, quelle surprise! That's French for what a surprise. Anyway, the, the, the one geopolitical issue that may put a little bit of a damper On the commodity markets here in September is this September 24th meeting between President Trump and President Xi. I was reading earlier this week the US has it on its calendar. The Chinese government has still not confirmed that meeting happening. That may be a little bit of a— could be a bit of a volatile week when it comes to something like the soybean market for sure. So keep your head up on that. This has been great. Oh, go ahead. I was going to say, we haven't also talked— another big thing coming up on the Canadian economy radar is this investment summit. A bunch of companies, big names from around the world coming to Canada in the middle of September here. It actually looks like— last week we talked about whether there's going to be a chill on this investment summit because of the Trump administration and the trade war. It actually looks the opposite where the rest of the world is almost rallying to want to invest in Canada right now. At least that's the narrative coming from some parts. So it'll be interesting to watch the results of that as well. And we did also see StatsCan numbers talking about exports a number of times during the show today. We saw StatsCan numbers this week for the month of July. Non-US exports are up 56% in the last year and a half from Canada, but at the same time, the share of exports from Canada going to the US are down only to 66% versus 73%. So it's still 2/3 of our exports from Canada are going to the US. Yeah. Puts things in perspective still. Yeah, there's an updated U.S. ag trade deficit up until the end of July, and the entire agricultural trade deficit is Canada and Mexico. That's likely to be, you know, in aggregate used to be as leverage in these negotiations that are happening, but again, the aggregate number is dangerous because Canada buys per capita 6 to 7 times the ag products that the US does. And so per capita, yeah, you get back to this misconception that Canada has equal population. It's a country of 40 million people. It is one of the biggest misunderstandings from Americans towards Canada. They think that they don't understand it's only 40 million people. So lots to talk about there. Okay, Evan, I hope it stops raining sometime soon there. Me too. I'd like to get through harvest here sometime with a, let's call it a 9 in front of the month. So Yeah, and not December 9th. You mean like the actual month? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean September. I get you. I get you. Okay. Well, Kelvin, have yourself a great weekend. Thank you. Cheering for those Blue Jays playoffs. They're half game out. Half game out. And Vlad hit a home run this week, which is one home run. It tells you about his season when we're excited about one home run. I was listening to the Guardians broadcast and it was a great call where he's like, there's the pitch, there's a swing. Oh, that's headed to Lake Erie. That was a big one. Lyndsey, enjoy all the college football on TV this weekend. I'm not watching one college football game. I'll just have everybody know. No offence to college football. What is wrong with you? But I have no intention. What are you going to do? You're going to a wedding. That's right. Yeah, we leave Sunday morning in Winnipeg, so I will be doing laundry all of Saturday. Thanks for asking. Anyway, carry on. I will have to tell my wife that I have to watch your share of all the college football. Oh, okay. I'm sorry, Justin. Hey everybody, if you do have any feedback, the feedback line is 855-776-6147. Also, my email address is shaney@realagriculture.com. Have yourselves a great Labour Day weekend. And we'll be back on Tuesday. Cheers. Cheers.