Missing US Trade Report Data

Balance of trade data is a key component of GDP. It’s temporarily suspended. We are still having serious delays with reports long after the government shutdown ended. Trade reports are hugely lagging. I went to update my charts today on advance trade data but no go. Grok created the lead graphic for me. Thanks Grok. That explains the word change on the lead chart from your to my. I am closely following trade data because I think March, and perhaps February will be disasters. January Trade Data My view is that January trade data, especially imports, were weak because importers held back waiting for the Supreme Court tariff decision. On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled against Trump. Then the International Trade Court mandated refunds. I now expect a surge in imports reversing the January numbers. Given typical 20–36 day ocean transit + clearance, the real “mad rush” import catch up lands mostly in March data. This Friday, we see advance trade numbers for February. Nothing will surprise me here. But GDPNow will not use that number On April 1, we have the full international trade data that GDPNow will look at. That data is for February. So take any GDPNow change on April 1 with a big dose of salt. I expect the full brunt of imports to hit in March with perhaps a bit of spillover into April. Thus, I expect GDPNow to be skewed on the high side until the full March trade data release. For discussion and graphs, please see GDPNow First Quarter GDP Estimate Sinks to 2.0 Percent. Still Too High? Will imports be dampened somewhat by the Hormuz strait being closed? Oil over $100 now will certainly do it. What is Trump going to say at 3:55pm EST to spike da ma-kets? Whatever it is, it will be like nobody has ever seen. And nobody believes. I read where Joe Biden was quoted as saying, “thank goodness for trump.” They called him Sleepy Joe because you could sleep at night when he was president. You choose: 1) Trump admin isn’t competent enough to provide these standard reports 2) They have not made up the fake numbers to their satisfaction, we’ll get the report when the ink of their lies dries they sure are competent enough to do this: Trump State Dept. Accused of ‘Largest Fee Fraud in History’ of US Immigration System An immigration researcher at the Cato Institute found that the Trump administration is “raking in billions of dollars in immigration fees and not providing the adjudications that applicants are entitled to.” https://www.commondreams.org/news/immigration-fee-fraud-state-dept FBI director (of all people) using a Gmail account?…that’s what happens when you hire low IQ individuals BREAKING: DOJ Confirms Iran-Backed Hackers Have Breached FBI Director Kash Patel’s Personal Email, Are Publishing His Private Photos and Documents jimmy dore has amazing Patel voice impersonations . listen if you did not!! google tube hilarious as shi11t Kash, the poor man’s Pete Kegsbreath Temu Kegsbreath Patel was using a non-government account, presumably to avoid having to disclose information in response to FOIA suits or otherwise having to comply with law. Same reason HRC was using the infamous “bathroom server”. The cabinet fits neatly on a short bus. Guess what time it is goys? Yep, time to head to Lebanon, out “Greatest Ally” ™ is getting tired. Israeli Defense Forces Chief: IDF Could Collapse Due to Lack of Manpower they lie! all military man lie! Except for Putin, right? LOL is there putun in the room right now? or in your head seek doctor, you need one I don’t need to see any trade data. WTI at $98.65 Brent at $111.46 10 Year at 4.414 and Trump at IQ 52 tells me everything I need to know! We are well on our way to the Trumpocolypse™ right on schedule. Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™ That’s good enough for me… …sell Mortimer, SELL we are already past that moment now it is ====== F11uck him! Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now! Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!” === and trump is having heart attack. YOU FORGOT MOST important! 1 year USA gov deficit as today is $2.8 trln debt is 39 trln and USA wants put boots on ground in iran. The most important is the demographic death spiral this country has and the 80m geezers suckling at the government teat. Sending off young people to die in a pointless war will exacerbate the problem. =80m geezers suckling at the government teat. they paid taxes all life! do you really live in USA,? or just blathers bu11llshit? “The federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 totaled approximately $1.8 trillion, which was a decrease of about $50 billion from the previous year.” I don’t think the $2.8 trillion even factors in the tariff refunds. So after all Trump’s cuts to try to save money, he winds up spending a trillion above last fiscal year. “The federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 totaled approximately $1.8 trillion, which was a decrease of about $50 billion from the previous year.” === obv you have no idea about macroeconomics in USA fiscal year 2025 ended on nov 1 of 2025. now it is 2026 fiscal year! ===== you are using grok or something ! which is based on monthly reporting of USA gov, which is fake! dont ask me why. too long to explain you just need to google “debt to penny”, and compare debt today and 1 year ago it is 2th grade math operation. called subtraction. TRY ONE! Steven Miran still voting for cuts at every meeting It’s filed under the epstien File. Do not open till 2525 You transposed the first two digits Banana Republic here we come!