Iran War: No Uptake to Trump Plea for Help With Opening Strait of Hormuz; Israel Claims Assassination of Iran Security Chief; Iran Clarifies That Friendly Countries Can Transit; Strikes UAE Terminal at Fajarah, Trump Delays Xi Summit

[This Iran war post is even lighter than usual at launch because Links. I hope to have it done by 8:00 AM EDT, at worst 8:30 AM EDT] The sort-of-good news for the day is that Trump still seems to be stuck on his current rung of the escalation ladder in the Iran war. He has doubled down on whinging about how none of America’s putative (ex-Israel) allies are willing to bail him out of the mess he created, by sending naval assets on a suicidal mission to try to open the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. However, it is not as if that means he is interested in or able to retreat. Israel, in the face of more strikes by Iran, just claimed it has killed the Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. As we have seen (witness Hezbollah) and experts have confirmed, decapitation strikes do not stop anything other than trivial actors in a conflict. And Iran is not that. Mind you, Israel vowed to continue assassinations of Iranian top officials, including the Supreme Leader, so I do not see the latest attacks as escalation, as opposed to intensification. Others differ. The current Bloomberg banner headline: The rejection of Trump’s pleas for help confirm US isolation as its unprovoked, illegal war against Iran is already set to impose massive costs on the world, even if it were to stop now. But the Administration is successfully exploiting normalcy bias in its messaging, with investors and it appears a lot of public in the US and non-Asian advanced economies unduly complacent about how bad the downside could be. We’ll give some examples below of this syndrome. Even if Trump were to seek a way out (many have seen his recent confused messaging as proof that he is trying to find an off ramp), it’s not clear how he can. He and Pete Hegseth have been larding the armed services, who normally can and do check misguided civilian leader, which armageddon-loving Christian Zionist zealots. Hawks like Jack Keene and Lindsay Graham, who keep selling the line that Iran is on the verge of falling apart, still get plenty of air time on Fox. And Zionist billionaires are likely stiffening Trump’s spine in private. So the costs of the war, both economically and in further loss of what is left of the appearance of US primacy, will have to mount much higher before they could conceivably weaken the sway of these centrally-placed forces. Even though the Europeans have politely (or on the case of Germany, not so politely) failed to take up Trump’s request for support with forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, don’t expect them to do much in the way of applying any leverage to get Trump to climb down. Stanislav Krapivnik, in a new interview with former UK diplomat Ian Proud, explains how European weapons systems depend critically on US provided components. Given that the EU is committed to remilitarizing to defend itself against the marauding Russian bear, it can’t break with the US on anything as consequential as the Iran war, as opposed to engaging in mere passivity. Nevertheless, a surprisingly blunt subject line in the Politico EU morning newsletter: “EU to Trump: You’re on your own” Trump has also put off his summit with Xi. As much as one can make a case that it makes him look weak, it would be inappropriate to make such a trip in the middle of a big war even if it was going well. However, the flip side is that this cancellation shows Trump is not interested in finding a way out. China could conceivably broker an understanding (except for the wee problem that the US is totally untrustworthy and cannot deliver Israel either). Nevertheless, an official take from Bloomberg Trump Says He Asked China to Delay Xi Summit Due to Iran War: - President Donald Trump said he had requested China delay a summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for about a month, citing the need to oversee the Iran war. - Trump stated that he wants to be in Washington due to the war and has requested a delay of a month or so, adding that he has a very good relationship with China. - The decision to delay the summit may not be a major disappointment for Beijing, as China had previously proposed a later date to allow more time for preparations. Iran is working over the Gulf States mightily to destroy US bases and deter them from letting them be rebuilt later. Krapivnik reported yesterday that Saudi Arabia has told the US that it is on its own that they won’t even assist the US with evacuation when it comes to that. But that again is far short of standing up to the US. The UAE is being hit particularly hard. In the last 24 hours, Iran bombed Fujairah, the UAE’s big oil port. From the BBC: The attack on the Fujairah is a big deal. It appears to be in retaliation for the strike on oil facilities in Tehran, a de facto chemical weapons strike, that was launched from the UAE> From CNBC in UAE’s Fujairah oil trading hub targeted by a drone attack, causing large fire: A drone attack at the United Arab Emirates’ key oil trading hub of Fujairah triggered a large fire, authorities said on Monday, with no injuries reported…. Oil loading operations at the major oil bunkering hub had been suspended as a result of the drone attack… Fujairah, one of the world’s top hubs for storing crude and fuels, is located on the eastern seaboard of the UAE and serves as a key shipping hub for the wider region. Note that Iran has attacked the Dubai airport three times since the war began, each time with drone (at least one was only with a single drone; the latest flight halt was due to a “drone-related incident” that resulted in a fire near the airport). This is more than enough to rattle passengers and flight crews. As Iran is (perhaps only in retaliation) hitting Gulf oil assets, it is offering a carrot in allowing friendly countries to transit the Strait of Hormuz. It is already in discussions with Iran. From Reuters in Iraq in talks with Iran to allow oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz Iraq’s oil minister says Baghdad is in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the state news agency reports. Iraq is also working to resume exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey as it seeks to offset disruptions to shipments caused by the Hormuz crisis, after some vessels were attacked off the Iraqi coast during transfers. As you can see, Iran has let a few more ships though, including a Pakistani tanker, This image is a screenshot from Mercoglino March 16 presentation of Joint Maritime Information Center report; I was unable to find underlying document viaa short search: Similarly: Some ships are starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz because Iran appears to be allowing limited, pre-approved voyages. A few non-Iranian tankers, including ships carrying fuel to India, have made it through after negotiations, but overall traffic remains far below… pic.twitter.com/pV3P2R65N4 — Clash Report (@clashreport) March 17, 2026 And from Defense News: Two India carriers secure safe passage through Strait of Hormuz. This comes as the toll on Gulf States escalates rapidly. For instance, from a new Economist article, America’s war on Iran may bring Bahrain to its knees. Key sections: Even before the war began, Bahrain was on course to run a budget deficit of more than 10% of GDP this year, owing to the (previously) low oil price and rising debt-servicing costs. At 146% of GDP, its public debts are among the heaviest in the world. Almost a third of government revenue goes on interest payments. Bahrain used to host a thriving banking industry which, along with fairly modest revenue from oil and gas, sustained a comfortable prosperity. But those days are gone…. The oil and aluminium industries account for more than two-thirds of government revenue and around a quarter of GDP. Both have been hit. BAPCO, the national oil company, has halted some shipments from its Sitra refinery. Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA), which operates the biggest aluminium smelter outside China, has suspended exports… The main problem is not Iran’s bombardment, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That leaves no way to export oil or aluminium… There is a long-standing assumption in the Gulf that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will always bail Bahrain out, as they did, along with Kuwait, in 2018. That could well happen again this time. “But you can only bail somebody out if you have the cash yourself—and these countries are suffering, too,” says Khalid Janahi, a former banker. Bahrain has a further vulnerability that keeps its rulers up at night. With the airport closed, its only connection to the outside world is a 25km causeway to Saudi Arabia. More than 80% of tourists—mostly thirsty Saudis, visiting the closest spot where alcohol is legal—arrive this way. An Iranian attack on the causeway would be a “doomsday scenario”, says a businessman, which would shatter whatever confidence remains. Weirdly, that story omitted the oft-mentioned elephant in the room: that the substantial Shia population could overthrow the Sunni monarchy. YouTube already has shorts of pretty nasty-looking protests. Dubai also has a glass jow. From the New York Times in Could This Be the End of Dubai?: Dubai is on edge. Big banks asked employees to stay away from their office towers. People sheltered in underground parking garages or wherever they could find cover…. Those with means, many of whom had come to Dubai to work in financial firms, hedge funds, family offices, law firms and consultancies, scrambled for commercial flights and private jets out of the Gulf…. The attacks struck at the fundamental premise of Dubai’s model as a new type of global metropolis…less a rooted place with people and history than a blank slate for the exchange of capital. Its success has even spawned a term, “Dubaification” — the spread of the same malls and towers, restaurants, airport lounges and luxury brands that make places feel secure and, despite its proximity to Iran and the now blockaded Strait of Hormuz, out of harm’s way. What could ever go wrong when there are a Nobu and a Louis Vuitton boutique nearby? I first came to the Emirates about a decade ago to teach a course at New York University’s satellite campus in Abu Dhabi called The Global City, which met every day and used Dubai and Abu Dhabi as our classroom…. N.Y.U. Abu Dhabi has more than 2,000 undergraduates from over 115 countries who speak more than 75 languages — a campus that felt like a sped-up version of the city itself. The students were remarkable, and they were determined to show me a Dubai and an Abu Dhabi beyond the malls and the towers. They took me to the traditional markets, the old souks, the South Asian neighborhoods — the culture that had been there before the building boom and was now, in places, being overrun or erased. They were fascinated by that tension and wanted me to see it too. They pushed back when they felt Westerners judged the place without understanding how people actually lived there….. Nearly nine in 10 Dubai residents are non-nationals — by far the highest percentage of any major city in the world….Many are from the United Kingdom and the United States, but many more are guest workers who do the service jobs on which the city depends…Even a traffic violation can trigger deportation…. And the Dubai model is spreading. Other cities, including Riyadh, Istanbul, Miami and Doha, are all attempting to adopt some variation on the same basic formula to compete for the same class. But that duplication also means these cities can be replaceable. If one falters, another steps up to take its place. The elites can flit between them, because any real attachment they feel lies elsewhere. Economic Times provides a supporting data point via Emirates flying near-empty jets to Dubai as locals depart. One very remote possibility for a way out of the war sooner rather than later is for the Gulf States together to demand that the US and Israel stop. I do not see that as at all likely given that Bahrain sponsored what Russia and China correctly depicted as an unbalanced UN resolution that criticized only Iran and made no mention that Iran was the victim of an illegal war of choice. OilPrice nevertheless explains that the Gulf States do have the leverage. From What Happens If Gulf Producers Deploy ‘Nuclear Option’ To End Middle East War?: - The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded about 15 million barrels/day of Gulf oil exports, giving Gulf Cooperation Council producers major leverage in the Middle East conflict. - Gulf states could deploy an energy “nuclear option” by halting exports entirely, removing up to 20% of global oil supply. - Doing so, they could potentially force the United States and Israel to reconsider military operations against Iran. However, the Gulf States could be enlisted to help Trump save face, in making an orchestrated demand that would force Trump into a kabuki capitulation. Turning to the broader economic front, Yanis Varoufakis had an informative talk with Chris Hedges on how bad things might get. I differ with Varoufakis on parts of his commentary ex this war, such as what caused the 1970s stagflation (the big factor was LBJ refusing to raise taxes and running deficits when at full employment because a tax hike would have been seen as funding an already unpopular war). But his description of the extend of hopium and how second-order economic effects of the war will hurt the US are informative: I am also not confident of his prognosis that central banks will be able to stop hyperinflation, which results when there is a big loss of productive capacity. Volcker did not take his super high interest rate regime as far as he wanted to because it was starting to break the banking system. Central banks do not have unlimited freedom of action here. Brent is back over $100 and price pain at the pump in the US gets worse. From Bloomberg in US Diesel Tops $5 a Gallon as War Disrupts Supply Chains: US diesel rose above $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022, the latest sign of surging fuel price pressures menacing the global economy as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies. The nationwide average retail price reached $5.044 a gallon on Monday, according to the American Automobile Association. It has gained sharply since the conflict began…. The jump in US retail diesel prices is the latest surge among fuels that are key to the day-to-day functioning of the global economy. Jet fuel has soared above $200 a barrel and fuel oil — usually a product that trades lower than crude futures, but one that keeps shipping moving — is now close to $140 a barrel. Diesel is more important than most fuels. Across the world, it powers freight, agriculture, and construction industries. Any spike at the retail level will ripple through the broader economy. Prices have surged faster than most other petroleum-based products because Persian Gulf refineries are major suppliers. More on economic effects. From Oil Price in Jet Fuel Prices Soar as War in Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation: As the war in Iran spills over into other parts of the Middle East, energy experts expect the price of several oil and gas products to soar over the coming months, driven by shortages. This will likely affect flight prices, with several airlines warning of anticipated price hikes. Bye bye tourism, which is important to many countries and part of the US. And expect a hit to vacation home prices. And Insurance Business describes another vector of damage to shipping companies in Gulf conflict strands 20,000 seafarers – and tests marine insurance limits: If seafarers refuse to sail into, or continue operating within, the Gulf, owners could face claims linked to unsafe work environments. Where casualties occur, liability for death and personal injury will fall under P&I cover, but any gaps created by war exclusions or sanctions restrictions could complicate recovery and settlement. South Korea is in three-fire-alarm mode. From Korea Herald Lee calls for measures to handle worst-case scenarios over prolonged Mideast crisis: President Lee Jae Myung said Tuesday the government should prepare measures to mitigate the potential economic fallout under the worst-case scenario where the Middle East crisis becomes prolonged…. “From now on, we must prepare measures with even the worst-case scenario in mind on the premise that the Middle East situation may be prolonged,” Lee said during a Cabinet meeting held in the administrative city of Sejong. Some kinetic war updates. Forgive the producers for calling Hezbollah a proxy as opposed to an ally: And: 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Apocalypse Tel Aviv (Rishon LeZion) That orange hellscape you’re watching is Rishon LeZion Israel’s fourth largest city, 270,000 people, sitting ten kilometres from the heart of Tel Aviv. An Iranian ballistic missile just turned part of it into a wall of fire visible… https://t.co/M7B4IsmEG8 pic.twitter.com/fHzIj7MiE4 — THE ISLANDER (@IslanderWORLD) March 16, 2026 Hindustan Times is mighty keen to showcase how Israel is in a world of hurt: This is a further bad look in terms of US military prowess. Recall that it was the same Gerald R Ford that suffered from clogged toilets, which some speculated was the result of sabotage: A laundry fire that takes thirty hours to extinguish on a $13 billion carrier with the most advanced damage control systems in any navy on earth. That displaces 600 crew from their berths. On a ship designed to take battle damage and keep fighting. And the explanation is the… — Donald J. Gorbachev (@donaldgorbachev) March 17, 2026 Let’s speculate a bit. If Iran does not relent, and the Wall Street crowd, after having oil at $150+ for weeks or months, presents Trump with the incontestable fact that he fucked up and needs to get the country and the world out of the mess ahorita ya, what would Trump’s position become at that moment? Could it be that the US will have to TACO eventually? And would Trump survive that? Is there a possibility that he would resign rather than make such a face-losing decision? Could it be that he won’t make it to the mid-terms? Iran seems such an unmovable object at the moment, that the possibility of Trump himself breaking into pieces when clashing against it seems real to me. But JD Vance would be subject to the same evangelical, Zionist and nutter hawk pressures. IMHO things will have to get very bad before their hands are removed from the wheel of power. Palentir tech billionalre Peter Thiel was Vance’s mentor and largest financial backer – a record breaking donation – during Vance’s Senate campaign. Thiel is to Vance like Miriam is to T, imo. I have often repeated a theory that Vance has a powerful deep-state faction behind him (whoever Palantir (and the part of the CIA they are tight with) has turned, a load of post-neocon Mearsheimerish realists, and non Israel-first fascists from military/Spookdom). I think the long-term game is to break from the old model and go full America first (and ideally fascist). The Thielites do love Israel, but don’t seem bought/compromised. Also their brand of religious nuttery seems different. Also, the more the current US military is proven incompetent, the more impetus for the change Palantir/Anduril/saner generals want (meaning end to cost-plus & exquisite white elephants). Who knows how big this faction is, but I don’t think it’s small. I think this is a long term project since the early War-On-Terror days. It would take a deal with the dual-citizens, but maybe events on the ground make that more possible. I guess they don’t need to rush though. They can let the neocons destroy themselves and the Big 5s mil-tech reputation further. A good friend of mine always buys his gas at his semi-local Costco. When he purchased gas on Sunday they were raising the prices as he pumped. He spoke to the attendant who said they now raise them twice a day. Yikes, as it’s still early. Costco, and your local rando gas station, have no choice in the matter. if the local distributor changes prices twice a day, they have to as well. ‘ unprovoked, illegal war against Iran’ you forgot to include ‘full scale’, was that deliberate as there isn’t any ground invasion yet? Or maybe only Russia does war at full scale, I’ve never heard of Germanys full scale attack on Russia otherwise known as Barbarossa for example. No, this is only an air campaign. Calling it full-scale treats it as more of a fundamental threat to Iran than it is I was hoping you might feature Jeffrey Sacks’s peace proposal at Common Dreams. Perhaps in the finished version? *Collective security could be achieved in five interconnected measures. First, the US and Israel would immediately end their armed aggression across the entire region and withdraw their forces. Second, Iran would stop its retaliatory strikes across the GCC and resubmit to monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency under a revised Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which President Trump recklessly abandoned in 2018. Third, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen with mutual agreement of Iran and the GCC. Fourth, the two-state solution would be immediately implemented by admitting Palestine as a full member state of the UN. Israel would be required to end its occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem and to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and Syria. Fifth, the UN recognition of the State of Palestine would form the basis for a comprehensive regional disarmament of all non-state actors, verified under international monitoring. The end result would be a return to international law and the UN Charter.* This is important imo because it’s the type of deal Iran might accept. One thing is missing. Israel will have to forgo its nukes if Iran has to. No, I am not featuring it because this is unadulterated hopium. There will be no negotiated outcome. Both the US and Israel have demonstrated that their word means nothing. Realist John Mearsheimer has said that Iran has, like Russia, concluded that this war will be settled on the battlefield. And contrary to widely touted misinformation, many wars end without an agreement. https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-ceasefire-or-stalemate-how-wars-end-and-road-ahead-ukraine Iran has no reason to negotiate. It is winning and the belligerents are not even negotiation-capable, let alone agreement-capable. Are there good reasons to not kill Netanyahu and his Naz… Zionist-leadership (say top 5 layers) yet/at all? Are they running Israel into the ground just like the cocaine-clown and his Zio… Nazi-gang in Kiev are doing? Are there more competent leaders behind Netanyahu and his Naz… Zionist-gang that would be a stronger and more destructive force in the region? It hard not to think that, ex escalation to nuclear strikes, prolongation of the war serves Iran’s interests in damaging the State of Israel. If that’s right, leaving in place BN, who presumably has personal reasons for prolonging the state of exception that is delaying his court cases, is the simplest path toward Iran’s goals. Given that we are witnessing the destruction of expensive U.S. weapons by Iran’s inexpensive drones and missiles in real time, are EU leaders really so naive as to still want access to American weapons? From Breaking Points, utube, ~24+ minutes. Missile HITS Israel As Interceptors RUN LOW https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKA7AvxvoTI Just reading the account of how two Indian and a Pakistani ship were allowed safe passage out to sea, a point occurred to me. We know how many ships are bottled up right now but I have never read anything about the actual destinations of any of those ships. Would Iran be able to set up a system so that ships heading to Global Majority nations and others such as China would be allowed free passage and nobody else? It would serve to get Iran support from all those countries and underline the point that ships from unfriendly countries would be there for the duration. >>> displaces 600 crew from their berths. (this was not some lint catching fire) 1. this is face-value honest as the PR says: a laundry accident. ok, the Captain needs to be relieved for incompetence/negligence….unless it was a equipment malfunction 2. this is a self-inflicted equipment “fragging” that got out of control. 3. this is combat-related, the IRGC didn’t lie I dunno what to think. Alex Jones, you were right all along, lmao