Labor Market Turnover Increased all Year, Bouncing Off Late 2025 Low. What that Means

Another sign of underlying strength in the labor market. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The trends in the number of job openings, in the number of quits, and in the number of hires — trends of labor market “turnover” — bottomed out in late 2025 and then wobbled higher, another sign of underlying strength in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data today by the Labor Department tracks this “turnover” in the labor market in June. It doesn’t track employment growth, unemployment, etc.; the jobs report for June (released July 2) did that. Labor market turnover is a function of slots left behind by people who quit their jobs; by people who were laid off or fired; and by people who retired or separated for other reasons, such as died while employed. Those left-behind slots become “job openings” when employers try to fill them. Growing job openings mean mostly growing turnover in the labor market. Job openings in June dipped a little from the spikes in April and May, to 7.36 million, still the third-highest since January 2024, behind only April and May (blue line in the chart). The three-month average, which irons out the month-to-month squiggles and includes the revisions, rose by 157,000 in June to 7.49 million, the highest since July 2024, matching the prepandemic record in 2019, having now increased month-to-month every month this year – a meaningful improvement of the trend (red line in the chart). Year-over-year, the three-month average is up by 4.0%. The data is based on a survey of the HR departments of 21,000 business locations, not online job postings. A job is “open” only if it meets all three conditions: - A specific position exists, and there is work available for that position. - The job could start within 30 days. - The employer is actively recruiting workers from outside the establishment to fill the position. Excluded are positions open only to internal transfers, promotions, demotions, or recall from layoffs; positions for which employees have been hired but have not yet started; and positions to be filled by employees of temporary help agencies, employee leasing companies, outside contractors, or consultants. Voluntary quits rose in June by 79,000 to 3.23 million, the highest in a year (blue in the chart below). These people quit their jobs voluntarily, such as to take a better job somewhere else, but do not include people who retired, died, etc., who are tracked separately. The three-month average rose to 3.14 million, the highest since January, and both were the highest since July 2025 (red). Higher quits indicate that workers are more confident they can find a better job, or that they already lined up a better job. Quits are the biggest source of the labor market turnover and account for 60% of total separations. More quits mean more job openings left behind, and therefore eventually more hires to fill those newly vacated jobs, and more turnover. Layoffs & discharges remained roughly at 1.77 million in June, down year-over-year by 77,000. Getting fired for a variety of reasons, or for no reason, is a standard feature of the US labor market. The three-month average declined by 39,000 from the prior month to 1.73 million. These levels are at the lower end of the range of the prepandemic years. Layoffs and discharges accounted for 34% of all separations. Retirements and other separations (including deaths while employed, etc.) rose to 353,000 in June. The 12-month average, which irons out the huge month-to-month spikes and plunges, rose to 308,000 in June. It has been coming up from the 25-year low in 2025. Retirements from federal government jobs play a role here. Since January 2025, the federal government has shed 324,000 workers, or nearly 11% of its workforce, and quite a few of them eventually switched to retirement. When people were still on severance pay, they did not count as retired, but as employed. When they come off severance and retired, that’s when they count as “retired.” Retirements and other separations account for about 6% of total separations. The number of hires rose by 96,000 in June to 5.35 million. The three-month average dipped a hair to 5.27 million. But this is not a measure of changes in payrolls (such as job creation), but mostly of “labor turnover,” and the number of hires is mostly a function of slots left behind by separations (quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations). Nearly all of these 5.35 million hires filled slots left behind by separations. Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how: Trying to donate to your firm but it keeps telling me to use PayPal I don’t use PayPal Sorry for your troubles. PayPal set this up to be confusing, and you ended up clicking on the wrong button. Please follow these instructions: 1. go to my donate page either by clicking on the picture of the wall or on this link directly: https://wolfstreet.com/how-to-donate-to-wolf-street/ 2. on my donate page, click on the yellow “Donate” button, which takes you to my PayPal page 3. On the PayPal page, FIRST, enter the amount where you see “$0” at the top; SECOND, click on the WHITE button (“Donate with Debt/Credit Card”). Do NOT click on the yellow button. This WHITE button takes you to the PayPal page where you enter your credit card info and make the payment. No PayPal account needed. What’s the labor effect of the estimated 700,000 people taken into ice custody since Trump took office in 2025. Is it to small of a number to show up anywhere or are they working under the radar. I talked to a recently deported about 25 years old who said he was doing landscaping, installing sprinkling systems, and he could frame a house and he was a good welder who could weld anything. Those deported and the ~2 million people who “self-deported.” Back in July, I already reported that the labor force declined for those reasons: https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/02/labor-market-tightens-despite-tepid-job-growth-as-labor-force-declines-further-amid-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration/ “Over 4.7 million students graduate from U.S. colleges and universities each year, including roughly 2.17 million who earn bachelor’s degrees”. These represent people with formal education.” “…data shows roughly 1.5 million students enrolled in formal trade schools and an additional 2.5 million students participating in broader technical or vocational education programs. Because most trade programs last between 6 months and 2 years, hundreds of thousands of certificates and credentials are completed each year across the country’s roughly 7,600 technical and trade institutions.” I suspect there is plenty of worker supply (both formal education and trade educated) to pick up the slack. Now, service workers and people doing the “dirty work” that most people refuse to do….thats a different story. I spent a summer from college working in a institutional kitchen washing dishes using the large machines. It was hot, humid, sickening work. I swore I would never do it again. That type of work will go hurting for labor. Cool. He shouldn’t have a problem getting a job back in his home country Anybody worried about the Labor Force Particpate Rate continuing to plunge? Asking for a friend Amongst 25-64 it is stable and still above pre-covid levels Hi Ryan, I was 15 when I got my first real job in 1961 washing dishes at Arthur’s Big Bend Drive-In. Arthur’s starting wage was sixty-five cents per hour and he had two ironclad rules. If you’re late to work you’re fired and if you’re at work and take a break you’re fired. I worked there for two years. I only left because I got a better paying job teaching swimming and lifeguarding at the YWCA. My point being that if you’re motivated and hungry enough and there aren’t any other immediately available options those conditions you describe don’t seem that onerous. And for the record, after VN, I finished school at MSU and paid for it by working at the University Club’s kitchen doing exactly the job you describe supplemented by the GI Bill’s $200/month. Lastly, Drewman I don’t worry about the participation rate. Why should I? I guess if I saw green tracers snapping again my head again I might be worried but otherwise, I’ll leave the worrying to my wife. She’s really good at it. I am curious however. If you worry about the participation rate, why? Best regards to all. PS- Wolf I’ve got the tracking number. If the two dollars I sent don’t should up in a week or so, drop me a line. Gone are the days when you can pay for your life’s essentials with low paying jobs. Have you looked at the wage hike vs cost of living esp education in the last few decades. That American dream for masses died long time back due to financialization of all things forced by financial repression of FED and Gov’s policies. Drewman Group The overall Labor Force Participation Rate rate has been dropping for 15 years because BOOMERS, that huge generation, have been retiring out of the labor force. I re-explain this every month when the jobs report comes out. The Prime Age Labor Force Participation rate, 25-54 year olds, which exclude said boomers, has been at multi-decade highs for years. A tight labor market. All you have to do is read at least one of my jobs report articles, rather than dragging internet BS into here: https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/02/labor-market-tightens-despite-tepid-job-growth-as-labor-force-declines-further-amid-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration/ Wolf, where are the data that show hires due to the expansion of jobs? Or is that in these hires, but so minimal it can’t really be seen? The jobs report (last one Jul 2, next one on Friday) shows net increase in nonfarm payrolls. That net increase in payrolls is the number of jobs created and filled. That’s the data that answers your question: https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/02/labor-market-tightens-despite-tepid-job-growth-as-labor-force-declines-further-amid-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration/ This data here today is about labor market turnover. If I click through the ad to support Wolf Street, is it possible to set up a recurring monthly tip to keep the paywall away? Thanks HMFIC Yes. If you click through the ad, you get to my donations page, where you can see the different options of how to donate. You can set up a recurring payment on PayPal using your credit/debit card (no PayPal account needed). Many people do that. If you use Zelle, you may also be able to set up a recurring payment (depends on your bank).