Analysis: the separatists of Alberta are suffering a hard blow but the tension with Canada will continue

Analysis: Alberta separatists suffer a hard blow but the tension with Canada will continue - Author, Nadine Yousif - Reported from, Edmonton - Author, Jessica Murphy - Author Title, BBC News - Reported from, Toronto - Publication Date - Reading Time: 6 min It was a decisive result in a referendum that could have tested the bonds of national unity in Canada. However, according to projections, more than two-thirds of the voters in the province of Alberta sent a clear message: they want to remain part of Canada. It is possible that once the final result is counted, the rejection by a comfortable majority of voters to push for separation through a binding referendum may stop the separatist sentiment in Alberta dead in its tracks. This would relegatethe idea that was discussed discreetly for decades to political marginality. For the leaders of the Alberta separatist movement, although the result was predictable given the polls, it was disappointing after more than a year of campaign and pushing for a vote on separation. When the BBC asked him how he felt after learning the results, the separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre simply replied: "I am not happy." The result was celebrated almost immediately by the country's prime minister, Mark Carney, who declared that "the people of Alberta made a clear decision." But the leaders of the separatist movement claim that their battle is far from over and that the issue could dominate Alberta's politics for the next few years. Political Tension Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer from Calgary and one of the main spokespersons for the secession of Alberta, said that he and others "plan to regroup and work harder." Keith Wilson, another separatist, told his followers in Calgary that although the vote is over, "the conversation about the future of Alberta in Canada, our place in Canada, and our role in Canada will continue." The Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, who openly supported and advocated for the vote of unity, thanked the voters for the result. Politics have been criticized for running a "dangerous" risk by assuming that the independent campaign would likely fail, while granting their voting base, increasingly uneasy, what they desired. She reduced the number of petitions required for the public campaign to run for election. By declaring that the result of Monday was not binding, she managed to bypass a court decision that blocked the petition for separation because the indigenous communities whose lands would be affected if the province seceded had not been consulted. This gamble could test their leadership at the helm of the United Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2022. "They have lost the trust of the base (of the party)," said Rath. The inhabitants of Alberta who voted against an independence referendum told the BBC throughout the campaign that their motivation was to keep the country united, especially now that Canada faces the tariff threats from the United States, its former ally. They also feared that an independent Alberta could be vulnerable to external influence, or even annexation. Thomas Lukaszuk, a prominent activist for unity, said on Monday night to a crowd of sympathizers that the first results made him proud to be from Alberta. At a party to follow the election results in Edmonton, in defense of national unity, Lukaszuk directly appealed to the separatists, saying that "some of the issues they have raised are legitimate" and that the province must do the hard work of healing the divisions that this debate has revealed. "I do not want us to celebrate another referendum like this ever again," said Lukaszuk. Premier Smith told the CBC at the beginning of the week that she would not hold an independence referendum if the inhabitants of Alberta voted against it, while she remained prime minister. Some of the cracks cannot be easily fixed. Alienation of the West The separatist sentiment has its roots in the "alienation of the West," a term that some inhabitants of the western provinces of Canada have used for decades to describe the feeling of being ignored or overlooked by the federal government in the center of the country. Supporters of Alberta's independence, and many who defend unity, believe that the Canadian government has long been undermining the province's oil and gas industry, more recently through its environmental policies. This anger intensified later when some inhabitants of Alberta became frustrated with the response of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau to the COVID-19 pandemic and mandatory vaccination measures, considering them another example of government overreach. Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has worked with Smith to address some of these problems; for example, with the signing of an agreement that contemplates the construction of a new pipeline from Alberta to the Canadian Pacific coast. In his statement on Monday night, he referred to this, stating that his plan is to unleash all of Canada's potential as a global energy superpower, with Alberta as the central axis. But there are indications that there could be tensions in the future between Carney and Smith, a capable and a survivor, to date, of Alberta's turbulent politics. On Monday, Smith also put to a vote by the inhabitants of Alberta nine other questions, most of which seek to grant the province greater autonomy from Ottawa, even on matters such as immigration. The preliminary results suggest that many could be approved. Some of the people who voted in favor of a second binding referendum on separation said they were not seeking total independence, but rather some influence over Ottawa. Premier Smith pointed out that these other nine questions help her achieve precisely that. The example of Quebec Quebec, another province with similar sovereignist feelings, could offer clues on how the Alberta separatist movement might end. They held two secession referendums, in 1980 and 1995, both rejected by a narrow margin. Supporters of Alberta's independence do not hide that they are inspired by that French-majority province. They believe that Quebec has successfully used the threat of secession to gain significantly more autonomy in provincial matters. And, despite support for Quebec's sovereignty being at historic lows, the newly elected provincial government has committed to holding a third referendum on independence before 2030. Rath noted this while reflecting on his team's defeat. The Quebec Party, with a sovereigntist tendency, "just formed a government in Quebec with 28% of the votes," he stated. For Alberta separatists, "it is not impossible" that they could do the same in the future, he assured. This article was originally written in English and we used an artificial intelligence tool to translate it. A BBC journalist reviewed the text before its publication. 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