One month of war on Iran, swirling tensions in the Horn, and global drone proliferation: The Cheat Sheet

Share & more Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe. On our radar Counting the human cost of the US-Israeli war on Iran As the US-Israeli war on Iran heads into its second month, President Donald Trump extended his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants until 7 April, while The Wall Street Journal reported, citing Department of Defense officials, that he was mulling the deployment of an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region. According to Iranian authorities, at least 1,900 people have been killed and 20,000 others wounded in the first four weeks of the war. The Norwegian Refugee Council says 2,700 people have been killed across the Middle East by US, Israeli, and Iranian attacks. Unofficial reports suggest the US and Iran have used Islamabad to pass messages between one another, but the status of any Pakistan-mediated talks remains unclear. Iran, meanwhile, has not stopped its barrage of missile and drone attacks on Israel and its Gulf neighbours, with at least two people killed in Abu Dhabi by falling debris. Iran has maintained its stance that commercial properties in the Gulf, including hotels, housing anyone tied to the US military will continue to be targeted. In a sign of the widening and escalatory nature of the war, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan issued a joint statement on 26 March, demanding that Iraq end attacks by Iran-backed forces coming from their territory (see the Iraq item below for more). And what about Lebanon? Israel said this week that it will establish a “defensive buffer” in south Lebanon, sending more troops into Lebanon as it continues its campaign of bombing against Hezbollah that has killed more than 1,116 people and forced more than 1.2 million people to flee their homes. After a month of violence and Israel’s recent destruction of five bridges on the southern Litani River (cutting off an estimated 150,000 people and limiting aid), Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said displaced Lebanese residents won’t be allowed back into the so-called buffer zone until residents of north Israel are safe, while Hezbollah has vowed to keep fighting “without limits”. As with the last massive forced displacement in Lebanon, while many people need safety, shelter, food, money, and basic healthcare, mental health is also emerging as a key issue. The International Rescue Committee and others have warned that frequent airstrikes, repeated displacement, and anxiety about if and when people will be able to return home are taking a serious toll. Blue Nile attacks raise tensions even further in the Horn We warned earlier this week about worsening relations between Sudan and Ethiopia, and the risk of the world’s deadliest recent conflicts merging. That risk has continued to materialise in recent days, as the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces and the allied Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North launched fresh attacks in Blue Nile state, which borders Ethiopia, capturing the town of Kurmuk. Army-aligned Sudanese officials accused Ethiopia of aiding the offensive, reporting combat vehicles crossing the border. Earlier this month, Sudan’s army said drone attacks (see below) had been launched from inside Ethiopian territory, while a Reuters investigation in February found that the UAE has financed the construction of a military camp in Ethiopia to train RSF fighters. Ethiopia is a key UAE partner in the Horn of Africa and received extensive Emirati support during its war against Tigrayan forces from 2020 to 2022. Rising tensions between Tigray and the Ethiopian federal government suggest that conflict could soon reignite, potentially prompting the Sudanese army to deepen support to Tigrayan and other anti-Addis Ababa forces. Read our full analysis for more: Regional mega-war? How renewed conflict in Ethiopia could pull in Sudan Deadly drone strikes in Sudan, Ukraine, DRC, and beyond A 20 March drone strike on a teaching hospital in East Darfur killed at least 60 people, including nurses, doctors, and children, the UN and humanitarian agencies said. Sudan’s army reportedly denied carrying out the attack in El Daein, which is controlled by the rival Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. The strike is another sign of how drone tech, relatively cheap and widely available, is reshaping battlefields in Sudan and in conflicts around the globe – one of the 10 humanitarian trends we flagged to start the year. Just before the strike in El Daein, a tally by the UN’s rights office, OHCHR, found that drones had killed at least 500 civilians in Sudan from 1 January to 15 March. Drones are also extending conflict’s front lines: An 18 March drone strike blamed on (and denied by) the RSF killed at least 17 Chadians in the border city of Tiné. The city is also a key humanitarian corridor. Civilians in Ukraine continue to face “waves” of drone strikes, the UN’s relief chief warned. This included a Russian attack that killed two people amid a humanitarian evacuation. A drone strike killed a UN worker in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where analysis group ACLED recently recorded the highest monthly total of air or drone strikes in the country. And in the wake of the Israeli and US attacks on Iran, Iran is unleashing targeted drone strikes across the Gulf region. Humanitarian groups, meanwhile, are still struggling to adapt to the threats posed by drones – and to the more sophisticated AI-assisted and autonomous weapons systems coming down the pipeline. Security aid leads Ukraine’s new diplomatic engagement with Africa As part of a new strategy for Africa, Ukraine is offering Mozambique military support in its conflict in the north with jihadist insurgents (where Russia’s Wagner group were earlier humbled) in return for gas supplies to ease its energy crisis. Ukraine’s security prowess is a selling point in its new diplomatic initiative. Earlier this year, it negotiated a defence agreement with Ghana to supply drones and border surveillance equipment. Yet the risk is a perception that Africa is simply another battleground for its rivalry with Russia – a concern sharpened by Kyiv’s earlier military adventurism. Ukraine’s special forces have been active in Sudan, targeting Wagner in support of Khartoum. Ukraine also helped Tuareg rebels last year in an ambush in northern Mali that routed the pro-government Russians but also killed several Malian soldiers – causing anger in African capitals. In UN votes, African nations have tended to be non-aligned – uncomfortable with Russia’s invasion, but critical of Western double standards. The rise in food and fertiliser prices as a result of the Iran war may give agriculture-rich Ukraine a warmer reception. Weekend read Cleared: How Assam demolished the homes of 20,000 families How Assam’s mass eviction campaign has displaced more than 100,000 people since 2021 — and where the cleared land goes. And finally… Ted Cruz, TNH, and the right to seek asylum On 24 March, the US Supreme Court heard arguments in one of the most consequential cases related to immigration on its current docket. The case is called Noem v. Al Otro Lado, and the decision the court makes will have significant implications for the right to seek asylum at the US-Mexico border. Our Migration Editor, Eric Reidy, was shocked to find out that Senator Ted Cruz – a Republican with a long track record of supporting hardline immigration policies – cited one of his articles, distorting his reporting, in an amicus brief to the Court in support of the government’s argument. The central question in the case is whether the government can physically block people escaping persecution from seeking protection at ports of entry along the border. As The New York Times reports, the majority of Supreme Court Justices appear poised to give the government that power. In an op-ed, Eric has laid out what Senator Cruz and the government get wrong in their arguments and what is at stake in the case. As he writes in the piece, “[this] is far too important of a decision to be made based on a wilful distortion of the facts”. Read his rebuttal here: Excuse me Ted Cruz, I need to set the record straight.