Ukraine relies on a moment of surprise

According to the US think tank ISW based in Washington, Russian advances on the front slowed down this year. In September alone, Russia lost more territory in Ukraine than it gained. According to an ISW analysis published on Saturday, the loss in the past month amounts to around 81 square kilometers. The US think tank could not assess whether Putin knew that the figures he presented were false, it was reported. It is also possible that he is using "fictitious data on the situation on the front." The "culture of lies" is deeply rooted in Russian military leadership. Putin claimed that the Russian armed forces had captured more than 1,300 square kilometers in September. Experts assume that the Russian summer offensive was bought at the cost of numerous dead soldiers. Therefore, Moscow has increasingly resorted to attacks on civilian targets and energy facilities for some time. This is the enormous strategic advantage of Russia, which it also uses, according to US military historian Phillips O’Brien of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington on Wednesday. Russia can attack civilian targets daily—hospitals, universities, markets—knowing that Ukraine could do the same, but it would be too inhumane to do so, according to his assessment in a post. Putin's Szyatohirsk Problem Meanwhile, some of Moscow's recent statements turned out to be Russian propaganda. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed at the beginning of September that the city of Szyatohirsk with its important Orthodox monastery was in Russian hands. Ukrainian General Andrij Bilezkyj then appeared in a video without a helmet in the middle of the city. This further raises doubts about whether Putin is being informed about the situation by his general staff truthfully. Zelenskyj Announces Territorial Gains The Ukrainian army, however, stated that it had regained more territory from the Russian armed forces in the north of the Donetsk region. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj announced a troop visit to Lyman on the eastern front. "Today I met soldiers who are deployed in the Lyman area and awarded them insignia," he explained in online services. He confirmed that Ukrainian troops had regained territories in the area. A video released by Zelenskyj showed him alongside the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Jewhenij Chmara and several other high-ranking officers. Lyman had been hotly contested for several months. Russian Attacks Seem to Be Hindered The goal of the operation named "Vivaldi" was to make the Russian attack on important Ukrainian strongholds in the east of the country more difficult, Bilezkyj stated. In total, 176 square kilometers were regained in the north of the Donetsk Oblast during this offensive. Ukraine is relying on strict secrecy and surprise for its multi-stage operation. The army only publicly revealed its successes with a delay. Due to this strict secrecy, there had been hardly any news from this region on the side of Ukraine since the spring. British Military Blogger: Russia Concealed the Attack The Russian armed forces were misled by deception maneuvers, according to ISW, which analyzed the Ukrainian course of action in mid-week. Russia slept over the real Ukrainian attack, summarized former British Army member and military blogger Shaun Pinner on Wednesday. Some of the hardest battles of the war are taking place in Donetsk for a long time. Ukraine currently still holds about 20 percent of the area, while Russia seeks full control. The Ukrainian successes refute the portrayal by the Kremlin and the Russian General Staff that Russian troops were advancing everywhere on the front in Eastern Ukraine. ISW Warns of Further Russian Advance According to ISW's assessment, the Ukrainian offensive with the multi-stage operation "Vivaldi" has achieved the strategically important goal of disrupting Russia's efforts to surround the fortress belt of Ukrainian cities. "However, Russian troops are advancing towards some cities from the south and are also pushing further into the eastern city of Kostyanivka," says ISW. Meanwhile, a shortage of soldiers is becoming noticeable in Ukraine. According to the latest figures, the country mobilizes up to 34,000 men monthly. Due to the high number of deserters, however, the army can hardly compensate for its losses with this. According to former Minister of Defense and current domestic opponent of Zelenskyj, Mychajlo Fedorow, more than two million conscripts are being sought. Russia is Reinforcing the Army Meanwhile, speculation is underway in Russia about a new mobilization to compensate for heavy Russian losses. Putin has categorically rejected speculation about a mobilization so far. However, the Russian President signed a decree at the beginning of the week stating that the strength of the army is to be increased by 15,500 soldiers. "The permissible strength of the Russian armed forces is set at 2,441,630 people, including 1,550,500 military personnel," the decree stated. Russia apparently also wants to raise its military expenditures to a new peak since the beginning of the war against Ukraine in 2022 in 2027.