Iran War: US Continues Escalation by Striking Iran Bridge, Opening Way for Iran Destruction of Critical Links; Iran Moving to Attack Economic Targets

[Today’s Iran war update may be a bit thin due to media dialing down before long holiday weekend and as usual launched before complete. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version] Far too many are exhibiting serious cases of normalcy bias and are only slowly and in many case partially waking up to the immense changes to the global economic and political order proceeding at a breathtaking pace. Admittedly, Asia is getting an early and harsh version of what is coming). But even so, it as if people are clustered at the edge of a beach, seeing the water retreat far far far further than normal, not recognizing that this means a tsunami is about to sweep in and they need to find higher ground as quickly as possible. In addition to the investor under-reaction to the accelerating damage to economies all over the world is the widespread detachment about the already severe and dangerous escalatory dynamic underway. Had the genocide in Gaza normalized brutality, including the effort to destroy a culture, that the press and public have become desensitized? Did they miss that the US failed to defeat Ansar-Allah, who would be stereotyped as guys in sandals with AK-47s and shoulder-mounted rocket launchers? That Israel has inflicted an enormous punishment on Palestinians but have still not beaten Hamas, despite it being contained to a tiny territory? And that Iranians, unlike Palestinians living in an open air prison camp, are a very large, technologically advanced nation with terrain that is extremely hostile to invaders? And that the prospect, absent a monster climbdown of the aggressors, of them liberalizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, is vanishingly small? First to the kinetic war: It’s clear that like the repeated Ukraine attempts to take out the Kerch Bridge, this attack was intended to destroy a symbol of national accomplishment and not just important infrastructure: Israel/US have bombed the B1 Bridge in Karaj, a monumental project that connected Tehran with northern regions of the country, including the Caspian Sea. A major transportation artery. We are witnessing war crimes in real time. Again and again and again. pic.twitter.com/m1O27e9B3Z — kev joon (@never_oppressed) April 2, 2026 The intelligence-insulting justification was that this bridge was being used to transport drone….when it has not even been completed. This is obviously a lie since it was not even operational yet. The U.S. president also said he bombed it because it was the “biggest bridge” in the country. https://t.co/rA55Xl0e8d — Murtaza Hussain (@MazMHussain) April 2, 2026 Given that the Caracas raid managed to generate some striking images, it seems reasonable to think this bridge was made an early target due to how photogenic its destruction was expected to be. Let me turn the mike over to Janta Ka, who registers the appropriate, as in high, level of disgust this latest war crime warrants: And Iran is contemplating a brutal retaliation. 🚨🚨 IRAN JUST RELEASED A TARGET LIST OF 8 BRIDGES ACROSS 4 COUNTRIES. THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING. 🇰🇼 Sheikh Jaber Al Ahmad Al Sabah Bridge — TARGETED. 36 km over water. Kuwait’s northern lifeline. No alternative route.🇸🇦 King Fahd Causeway — TARGETED. ONLY road between Saudi… pic.twitter.com/DHcnxNlFnr— 🇦🇪 Khalid Al-Mansouri خالد (@KhalidAlMans_) April 2, 2026 Larry Wilkerson warned, both on Judge Napolitano and longer form with Danny Haiphong and fellow guest Patrick Henningsen, that Iran has moved from its first-round targets, which it struck with impressive precision and fitting use of ordnance, to its second group. Wilkerson describes how that is not merely escalatory but threatens the economies of the Gulf States, and with them, the wider world: I’ve seen the second set of targets, regional targets the Iranians are looking at. I know what they’re talking about. I know where they’re talking about hitting. I know what from the first set of targets they hit they can do. I know the devastation. I know the accuracy. And I know the exquisite selection of targets that were struck to make sure that we and the regional powers knew that Iran was making every effort to hit the United States of America and in some cases like Prince Sultan Air Base, the people who were supporting those facilities for the United States of America. This second set has no such inhibitions and I have no question in my mind that they can hit them and hit them with the incredible accuracy they did the first set and the incredible devastation. What am I talking about? I’m talking about Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia with 550,000 barrels per day production throughput capacity. I’m talking about the other one up the up the stream from it which produces 7% of the entire world’s now light sweet and good crude that Libya is kind of out of the picture for many purposes. We’re talking about 7% of the global supply coming out of that one place. All it would take is a strike like they put on Bahrain, maybe another missile or two. That’s out. I’m talking about the pipeline that the Saudis have built to kind of obviate the need for the straight of Hormuz, although it doesn’t do much of that, especially not with the Houthis having been at war with them for so long that goes over vicinity to of Jedda to the Red Sea. They’re going to take that out. I’m talking about every target in the region that applies to what I just said. Global recession, depression, they’re going to hit them. That’s their second tier. So, if we go on into this further, Donald Trump, you are going to set the world a flame economically and you’re going to make a pariah out of the United States like Israel is now. And that’s a position from which it is going to take maybe a generation if ever to recover. That’s what you’re setting up, Mr. President. University of Chicago professor Robert Pape gave on his Substack a more general warning of the escalation dynamic that Trump accelerated with his address to the nation. From Trump Accelerated the Crisis: No Plan for Hormuz, No Off-Ramp — a New Phase has Begun: Last night, Trump did not stabilize the crisis—he accelerated it…. The result is not resolution. It is deepening instability. 1. The world now sees there is no plan to fix the problem Not because of rhetoric—but behavior. - No mechanism to reopen stable shipping - No timeline for restoring normal energy flows - No alignment between military operations and economic stability In practical terms, this means that the actors who actually move the global economy—energy traders, insurers, shipping firms, and central banks—are repricing risk in real time and adjusting behavior accordingly…. So actors are not waiting. They are adjusting. 2. Escalation is now clearly the US default tool The signal from the speech is simple: When pressure rises → increase threats and expand targets. That tells: - Iran to prepare for continued confrontation - Markets to price ongoing risk - Allies to expect instability, not resolution Historically, this pattern is not incidental—it is inherent to coercive campaigns. Limited strikes designed to compel adversaries expand when initial effects fall short of political expectations. The target set widens—from military assets to economic infrastructure—while timelines extend without formal acknowledgment. This is how short wars become coercive campaigns. 3. The war now has no defined endpoint ….You cannot end this war if the system it disrupted remains unstable. Right now, there is: - a military timeline measured in weeks - an economic disruption with no clear end - no constraint on Israeli military action That gap means the war is not actually contained. It also means something more dangerous: The United States and its allies are falling deeper into an escalation trap—where each attempt to impose control through force increases the instability it is trying to resolve. An escalation trap is a structural condition in which each effort to impose control through force increases the instability that makes control necessary. That is now the trajectory at Hormuz. Securing Hormuz against asymmetric threats—mines, drones, missile strikes, and harassment of commercial shipping—is not a discrete task. It requires continuous presence and near-perfect performance. Iran, by contrast, does not need to stop the flow of oil. It only needs to demonstrate that the flow cannot be guaranteed. There is no path back to stable energy flows under the current strategy. Only different levels of instability… This is the trajectory of the escalation trap: not a sudden collapse, but a steady movement toward a prolonged phase of global economic disruption with no clear point of reversal. It is a trap because the near-term incentives for doubling down intensify as the costs of failure mount…. And in this phase, the key variable is no longer who can strike. It is whether the global energy system can function. Right now, it cannot do so reliably. And as long as that condition persists, power will continue to shift. So it should come as no surprise that US invasion plans are still moving forward. Aljazeera in a new clip, US Army chief ousted mid‑war as Trump ramps up strikes on Iran. took note of one part of the military developments that Larry Johnson discussed in his latest post, that Trump is purging top officers who were believed to be opposed to a ground forces operation. But IMHO the continued movement of forces into the theater is yet more evidence that Trump intends to Do Something. Robert Pape similarly warned on Breaking Points was the only way to believe the US might be retreating is if it reduced its force levels in the theater. I know some in the military — not just guys and gals from the Army — who strongly believe that General George was forced to resign because he did not support putting US troops on the ground. In addition to the movement of A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopters that I reported in my last post, there is a build up of US ground forces in West Asia. Consider this: Sixty three C-17 flights that have departed CONUS and headed to Israel or Jordan since March 12, according toTheIntelFrog, with an additional 11 enroute. Twelve of these C-17 flights have departed Pope Army Airfield since March 12, 2026. Given that a C-17 can carry 102 paratroopers with combat loads, then we’re talking a total of 1,224 soldiers… that is roughly the size of one 82nd Airborne battalion and four Delta Force squadrons. The odds that the US will launch an ground operation in Iran and employ Delta Force operators is high. Remains to be seen if General George will speak out against further escalation with Iran, or if he will keep his mouth shut and take a sinecure with one of the defense industry behemoths. And more on how war priorities are being twisted to fit Trump’s preferences, which look to be unduly influence by Hollywood action movies: NEW: The high-risk plan to seize Iran’s uranium in a commando raid that would require building a runway in Iran and dropping in excavation equipment amid incoming fire, came at Trump’s request, signaling his interest in the complex operation — John Hudson (@John_Hudson) April 1, 2026 However, fixations like that do serve to divert attention from apparent moves to protect Red Sea transit: ATTEMPTED AIRBORNE LANDING BY UNIDENTIFIED TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT ON MAYYUN ISLAND, BAB AL-MANDEB. YEMEN GOV FORCES ON MAX ALERT — Russian Market (@runews) April 2, 2026 The US is still taking hits: Watch the moment a US base in Saudi Arabia was targeted. 🚀🔥 pic.twitter.com/4N8HoM8c0L — IRAN EVENT (@Iranevent_tv) April 2, 2026 And Gulf States, per the current BBC live blog headline: Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity and Water says a power and water desalination plant has been attacked by Iran, resulting in “material damage” to some components. Technical and emergency teams began work “immediately” to “maintain operational efficiency”, it says in a statement on X. “The safety and stability of the electricity and water system is a top priority,” the statement adds. And an older entry: Kuwait: Emergency services have been responding to fires at an oil refinery in Kuwait after it was hit by Iranian drones. Separately, a power and water desalination plant has been attacked. As is Israel: The Times of Israel reported that the settler colony is moving the goalposts for its latest Lebanon ethnic-cleansing exercise. From IDF official says disarming Hezbollah unrealistic, not a goal of Lebanon operation: Another admission against interest: 🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: After Trump repeatedly claimed Iran’s Navy was destroyed in the opening days of the war, the U.S. State Department now says “Iranian Navy could be destroyed within weeks” — Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) April 2, 2026 A senior military official said Friday that while the Israel Defense Forces aims to significantly weaken Hezbollah and remove the threat the terror group poses to residents of northern Israel, the prospect of fully disarming the group was unrealistic and not a “required goal” of the army’s ongoing ground offensive. The remarks came as the military said it was set to present to the political leadership its plan to establish a “security zone” in southern Lebanon, which would involve demolishing Lebanese villages near the border and setting up army posts several kilometers inside the country. “Disarming the organization is not a required goal at the end of this campaign,” the military official said, despite previous statements by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and Defense Minister Katz saying that Israel would not give up on disarming Hezbollah. Moving towards the economic front, UN members are crafting a resolution to authorize the use of military force. However, it is set to be sufficiently watered down so as to avoid a veto as to not to amount to much.1 However, it does have the effect of rejecting the Iran (and Omani?) position that the Strait of Hormuz is not international waters but internal to Iran and Oman. BBC’s live feed also reveals some to-ing and fro-ing: A vote by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on a resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, which had been put forward by Bahrain, appears to have been removed from the UNSC’s daily schedule. A schedule published on Thursday 2 April showed a vote on a Middle East resolution scheduled for 11:00 local time (15:00 GMT). That vote is no longer showing on the UN website, external under Friday 3 April. No reason has been given for the removal of the meeting, and the UN has not announced a new date for the vote as of the time of this post. When we find out more about when it will take place, we will update you right here. Now turning to Bloomberg’s landing page for a view of what traders and investors are being told is important: Trump escalates, markets crater — Prime-time April 1 speech declared Iran “essentially decimated” then immediately promised to hit them “extremely hard over next 2-3 weeks” and “bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.” Within minutes of the speech ending: S&P 500 futures erased roughly $550B in market cap, Brent crude surged per shanaka86, American gasoline crossed $4/gallon for the first time since 2022, gold and silver sold off. Record ~$1B in leveraged crude short positions immediately facing a 5% rally per OilPrice.com. The Bloomberg landing page story about the three ships exiting the Persian Gulf via the Oman coast (and not the new inspection route close to Iran) is less consequential than it seems. The three vessels were Omani, but were very large crude carriers. Possibly more noteworthy is that a Maltese flagged, French-owned bulk carrier was also allowed to depart, making it the first European vessel to transit. However, the ship is owned by the French shipping giant CMA CGM. It was founded by the Sadde family, which was born in Lebanon, and has remained involved in Lebanon, for instance, in providing humanitarian aid. So this looks to be a special situation. Bloomberg had an important if also odd article yesterday, Key Real-World Oil Price Soars to Highest Level Since 2008. This isn’t the first time that Bloomberg had pointed out that crude is trading hands at higher prices than for Brent on the futures market. I am a little bothered at to the lack of curiosity as to why. I did some poking but could not get to the bottom of it. The CME loudly points out that contracts that require physical delivery (cash settlement is an option even if most often exercised) are the gold standard for futures. Brent is not that. If you read the weasel-wording, it makes clear that physical delivery can be done but is hard and so the contract seems to be effectively cash-settled, as opposed to cash settlement being the super popular option. That may be due to Brent being a blend of crudes and it being non-trivial to deliver the mix in the proper ratio. From the Bloomberg story (as you can see, the details are less than satisfactory but you get the gist, prices are going up!): The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008. Dated Brent, the price of shipments bought and sold in the North Sea, reached $141.37, surpassing levels seen when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to S&P Global, which publishes the data. The surge is a sign of the growing disconnect between futures contracts and various pockets of physical markets that are pricing increasingly scarce supplies. Dated Brent underpins a significant number of transactions where actual cargoes are bought and sold, and a large volume of supply has been lost to the Iran war. The futures market, on the other hand, is weighted largely to financial trading in so-called paper barrels. And more private equity cockroaches now visible on the counter: When the US Treasury starts calling in regulators, it means something has gone wrong enough to worry Washington. Yesterday, the Treasury convened meetings with domestic AND international insurance regulators to discuss private credit risks. The specific concern: billions in… — Nic (@nicrypto) April 2, 2026 Done for now. See you tomorrow! ____ 1 As many have noted, Putin has been more friendly to Israel during its genocide than seems warranted merely by the presence of many Russians in Israel. John Helmer describes how a fresh poll from Lavada shows much more support in Russia for Iran than for Israel, plus a bargain-basement low view of Israel generally, but most Russians are still fence-sitting on the conflict. From his post: Sympathy for Iran is expressed by 40% of the nationwide sample; this percentage is accelerating with time and with state television news broadcasts reporting Iran’s fightback, its successful attacks on US bases in the Gulf states, and unprecedented strikes against Israeli targets. During the June War against Iran last year, by contrast, 29% of Russians supported Iran. This shift in public opinion has occurred among those who said they were uncertain or undecided last June… No European public, no American opinion poll, and no BRICS member state shows such a low level of support for Israel as this. The Levada poll also reveals that, notwithstanding their growing sympathy for the Iranian side and against the Americans and Israelis, the majority of Russians wants to stay out of the conflict. F15 & possibly a Black Hawk down in Iran, I guess this is where the US really starts to lose the initiative… https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30138?single You can add in an F-35 to that list and the Iranians have the wreckage to prove it- https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/iran-shares-photos-of-f-35-wreckage-analysts-say-images-show-f-15-tail-sections-3217383?s=1 There is also a video of that jet being hit but it looks like the pilot never made it out. This is the same plane. Apparently it could be either based upon the wreckage. Unverified, but there are reports that a search and rescue operation for the pilots is underway. Also claims that a U.S. military helicopter has been shot down: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/180473 Watching Alexander Mercouris’ Thursday commentary, in which he discussed Trump’s Wednesday night speech, I was struck by what seems to me to be a serious misinterpretation / misunderstanding on Mercouris’ part. Regarding Trump’s comments about re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, Mercouris saw Trump as ‘pleading’ — his word — with NATO / Europe to undertake that task because the US couldn’t do it. Not at all. Trump was obviously just being dismissive, in his customary ‘It’s important but it’s not important’ way. There was nothing of a plea involved. On a different note … for over three decades, any important news or announcement from Iran mentioned the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in some way or another. When was the last time (recently) that anyone mentioned Mojtaba? Has he been seen or heard since being confirmed as successor to his father — or, indeed, since the first day of the war when he was reportedly injured in the same attack where his father and other family members were killed? I know there was a published statement attributed to him at the time of his accession — but anyone could have written that. I find it very strange that no-one is even referring to him, given that he is, you know, Supreme Leader and all. Completely invisible. Not invisible, he is using written communication rather than live or TV appearances. Probable under wise counsel for his safety. His more important letters are reproduced on the Iranian Press TV telegram channel and some of the Russian telegram channels. Could be written by others, but as Iran has not been backward in announcing ‘martyrs’ with full coverage of funerals, I think its likely he wrote them. Of the two Alex’s its Alex rather than Alexander that seems to be interpreting latest developments in both Ukraine and West Asia more astutely at present. I detect a slight chill between them, with Alex far more critical of Putin’s positioning for instance. Seeing as our vaunted military is fighting last century’s wars, perhaps its fitting that we go out with our boots on the ground against a Terminator-like foe on high. A last cavalry charge, if you will. Charge of the light Brigade Combat Team? Two more F-35s reportedly downed https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/03/766244/Another-advanced-US-jet-downed-secret-pilot-hideouts-obliterated I guess this is dispositive. I looked at Tasnim and Fars about 2 hours before launch time and did not see a report like this. Perhaps they hid the “good stuff” until their adversary (Team Epstein) let their guard down? And/or they have learned how to find these “stealth” aircraft and hit them. I would say that whatever the USAF is doing, given the short range of the F-35, it has to fly in a predictable fashion. It cannot do anything else if running low on fuel, so this gives the AA/AD a much narrower area to focus on. Another non-exclusive possibility is that weather conditions are now favouring interceptions. If, as many suggest, the AD uses thermal imaging, this will vary with the weather conditions. All-in-all, even if they got just one (I would think IMHO, they actually got two), this is bad news for the USAF. No, it is bad news for Lockheed. There would be lots of countries around the world rethinking their orders of F-35s with lot of cancellations. Considering the fact that each F-35 requires about 400 kg of refined earths – which the US does not have – then the US cannot fill those orders in any case. And which country wants to receive F-35s loaded up with weight lifting plates instead of an advanced radar unit? Maybe there’s something to this story… How to take down a US F-35 over Iran? Chinese engineer’s prophetic tutorial goes viral https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3348619/how-take-down-us-f-35-over-iran-chinese-engineers-prophetic-tutorial-goes-viral I’ve never found them to be a reliable source. I guess this is propaganda for internal purposes. The official IRGC communiques tend to be pretty accurate – but I’ve no idea where they’re released. I’m seeing reports of an F-35 downed over Central Iran. That makes it the second F-35, taken together with the F-15 and Black Hawk downed in Southern Iran as per Richard’s post above – it sure is a bad day for the USAF! 🫠 I couldn’t help but notice the similarity in Apollo 8 circling the moon in the tumultuous year of 1968, to Artemis II doing the same thing in this not short on histrionics year-only a quarter of the way in. Meanwhile on this orb, different wars & different quagmires play out. yesterday atlantafox said current events are pretty much an EXACT remix of Whitey On the Moon … police shooting brown people in the streets B-52s dropping bombs on asian people lack of basic healthcare for millions hey let’s go to the moon turns out one of the astronauts in space listens to the song every Monday ! Victor Glover astronaut also, to go with your previous comment “A last cavalry charge, if you will.”, here is a photo i made after orange poopemoji gave his “speech” Theirs but to do and die You think that they will read a section from the Bible like happened in ’68? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_8_Genesis_reading I have not been following the Artemis saga, but I discovered this concerning report yesterday. https://idlewords.com/2026/03/artemis_ii_is_not_safe_to_fly.htm Done a wee bit late. If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim. Yves, living in Thailand as you do, it’s natural to be aware of the effects of a tsunami, but I still found the comparison eerie. Just yesterday, on the phone with a friend, I likened the state we are living in to a tsunami and recounted a description I had heard of the great Oahu tsunami of 1946.. I must have been about 14 and was then living with my parents on the windward shore.. One evening we were invited to dinner by friends who lived in a house on the beach. Their son had experienced that tsunami, just a few years before, and described it vividly. About 3/4 of a mile out from the Lanikai beach are two small islands rising up from the reef. Erling (the son) said he had been out in the yard, and first became aware that something was happening due to a sudden, eerie silence, and then a strange hissing sound, as the whole sea between the beach and the reef slid out to the islands on the reefline and reared up into a monstrous wave that came speeding back toward him. He survived because there were outrigger canoes in the yard and he was able to cling on to one and ride it through. Checking back, I find that the date of that 1946 tsunami was the first of April. Wishing some form of an outrigger and the strength to hold on to it to everyone… A clarification: we pretty much don’t get tsunamis here. This area is geologically fairly stable and the Gulf of Thailand is comparatively shallow It’s a Japan thing and I worked with and for the Japanese. They understandably flip out any time there is a meaningful quake particularly offshore. IIRC the very big Kobe earthquake did not generate a tsunami. I have seen a lot of Fukushima tsunami videos. This one is recent and looks to be good: 2004. Over 5,000 dead, close to 4,000 missing. Phuket. On a relative basis to the length of Thailand’s coast, tsunamis are considered to be rare. From World in Data: https://www.worlddata.info/asia/thailand/tsunamis.php#google_vignette That tsunami hit the west coast of Phuket. Far more live on the coast of the Gulf of Thailand. Not saying it was not terrible but they are indeed not common here. Heard it in a video today but cannot find it now that another THAAD system has been hit by the Iranians. You have to wonder if this was one of the ones brought out from South Korea if true. Perhaps Mr Market minions have transitioned into “I better pump this market for all it’s worth and get mine while the getting”s good because I might not get another chance for years.,” Every member of the Joint chiefs of staff has gone along with this. Every one of them has knowing obeyed blatantly illegal orders, they have violated their oath to “Defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic” They have betrayed the trust of the American People. Why? They like being “VERY IMPORTANT PEOPLE”, and so do their wives. Their asses and their wives asses are kissed all day long, every day and for that they sold their souls to Donald Trump. A madman who literally reeks of corruption, whose putrid odor is remarked upon by those who have to associate with him in order to get what they want, money and power. They will not be forgotten if there is anyone to write a history of these days and those who write those histories will be astounded at how cheap it was to buy the souls of those who boast of their Courage and demand the respect of all those they encounter. The worst Senate in history, the worst Cabinet in History, and cowardly Joint Chiefs. All this destruction on the whims of a senile nutcase, and no one will shut him down. Oh my gosh, known expert Sean Hannity giving his 2¢ worth on the war, on Jantas video~ I’m quite struck by the similarity in looks of Abbas Araghchi and Anan 7, in this 1967 episode… Star Trek – We Don’t Make War With Computers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_XPgrdX7gk Frankly I am struck by how much that Iranian officer that reads out announcements from the Iranian government resembles Commander William Riker from Star Trek TNG. Why the question marks??? Also, the man just continues to openly celebrate war crimes and naked aggression. @realDonaldTrump 36m With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP the current media landscape reminds me of Adam Curtis’s documentary: “Hypernormalisation”” We live in a strange time. Extraordinary events keep happening that undermine the stability of our world. …..Yet those in control seem unable to deal with them, and no-one has any vision of a different or a better kind of future…..” (Sadly Curtis succumbed to TDS and Putin-DS and (IMO) lost his objectivity and verve over the years)) trailer (2min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nz6u7xRznjY%3Fhl%3Den 4 min version of film: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pumKGW-9Ba8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nz6u7xRznjY%3Fhl%3Den film (2.75 hr): given what Trump is now doing to the world, strange to dismiss TDS as anything but prescience. Yes. Something that’s been on my mind all week is the correspondences between various actors in different sectors of our supposedly free society. What explains the apparent alignment of so many independent private news media firms and actors in FIRE with the radically obvious utter nonsense coming from the government? Comparing with the Hypernormalisation thesis, to the extent I understand it, the main difference is that USians believe they have a democracy, a free press and an FIRE sector that can intimidate anyone, according to James Carville. Whereas in Hypernormalisation it was all centralized Soviet or Putin power structures. So how do we account for the alignment? Back in 2002 (probably) we used to get the Boston Globe delivered and I remember picking it up on the front steps one day and my heart sank as I could see clearly from the main p1 headline that today is the day the Boston Globe falls in line with W/C’s war on Iraq. Prior to that the Globe had plenty of skeptical opinions and editorials. I explained it to myself that the shift in position simply showed cowardice. If there’s going to be a war in retaliation for 9/11 then they fear the consequences of being opposed to it. But now? None of that applies. There’s no reason for many (most?) actors to fear being opposed to this war. On the contrary. All liberals, centrists and Democrats and many Republicans loath and despise Trump and his numpty cabinet. No PR prep for the war was done. No remotely coherent reasons for or goals have been given. The dire economic and social consequences are obvious. All of which offers opportunity for free market actors. So why is more of the media not talking like Yves Smith? Why don’t commodity futures reflect reality? I guess this is the same as Yves’ question about watching the tide far too far out and not drawing the obvious conclusion. Perhaps I don’t understand the Hypernormalisation thesis. Perhaps it isn’t coherent. But I did enjoy the film. Israel seems to be stretched rather thin. It’s involved in a serious war in Lebanon, the occupation of Gaza, bombing Syria and supporting the Druze population while defending the Golan Heights, and fighting a war with Iran. Meanwhile, there is no reason to celebrate as nothing is working according to any sort of in-and-out timetable. Then the question becomes how long does the US stick with its ally as the war drags on and the world economy screams uncle. Netanyahu must be aware that Trump disgraced the Fed Chair, humiliated the Supreme Court, and threatened allies, thus, it won’t take much for a person like Trump to toss Netanyahu under the bus. At that point the chance of nukes making an appearance seems more likely. 40+ years ago Israel went through a crippling bout of hyperinflation… Why not a replay, war is usually a good starter course in getting there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Israel_Economic_Stabilization_Plan One word, my opinion, why a living Trump will not toss Netanyahoo (or whoever is running Israel) under the bus. Epstein. Thank you for all of these reports. I believe this idea of “normalizing” the horrible is at the root of the entire situation or, to put it another way, “the banality of evil” is back–big time. The world did nothing to stop Gaza and looked the other way and now Israel and the US are in reality making war on the entire planet and the desensitized portion of said planet refuses to believe its lying eyes. Tuchman called this the “march of folly” and the source of the great 20th century disasters that were a rebuke to the smug belief that war is simply “politics by other means.” But war does allow absurd figures like Trump or for that matter the Nazis themselves to say “look at me.” Normality has a hard time reasserting when sociopaths like Trump of Biden or Netanyahu–that last desperate to stay out of prison–come into power. Israel do seem to be writing cheques that they can’t cash in Lebanon. On the ground they’re getting destroyed by Hezbollah and have made no progress, and they seem to have lost surveillance superiority. Obviously they can still bomb stuff, but Hezbollah is inflicting a lot more damage on Israel internally than they’ve done before. And that’s inflicting a real cost on Israeli society. About the market lagging on pricing-in the obvious future effects of the war: the pricing-in that is going on may be masked by grossly exaggerated plays to accelerate and milk volatility. The dynamics of the situation and the technological state of the market make such plays look uniquely too good to pass up. 1) Trump’s predictable ping-ponging back and forth. 2) The ability of artificial intelligence to pay attention to all the “training” data being spewed by Trump, his administration, and the military, to recognize and track patterns and “tells,” and to anticipate what each next move will be with a high degree of success. 2b) The willingness of some market players with a successful streak going to do the above intuitively. 3) The ability to execute enormous exit trades on a hair-trigger, in a fraction of a second. ‘UN members are crafting a resolution to authorize the use of military force.’ That must have been fun and games. Bahrain brought tho motion forward, probably on behalf of the GCC countries. As such, the western power were hardly in a position to refuse them as they will still be needing oil from those countries going forward. But you can bet that behind the scenes, those same countries were probably begging the Russians and the Chinese to veto that vote. If it passes in a robust form, then Trump will demand that those countries join his war against Iran because it is now in a passed UN resolution. That would be the last thing that they will want. Trump has crapped his bed and now he can sleep in it and nobody wants to join him and Israel. I realize that Sy Hersh is a legend of journalism but he’s been way off the mark on most everything since he started his substack. This one seems phoned in. Speaking of Prof. Pape, in googling him I happen to find Elli Lieberman’s blog on the Times of Israel site, he is a lecturer at the Center for Jewish Studies at University of Maryland. He offers a counterpoint to Pape’s escalation ladder and it makes me wonder if this is an insight into Israeli leadership’s thinking, even though the author doesn’t seem to be connected to Israeli government in any way. So Lieberman’s theory is that the war is a consequence of failure of credibility and deterrence. According to him, weak US and Israeli action over the years failed to deter Iran over nuclear program and regional influence, and thus compromised US and Israeli credibility over these issues. So at this point they are forced to wage the war to a point where that deterrence is re-established and US and Israeli credibility is restored. All this leads to the conclusion that, rather than de-escalating, US and Israel must go up the escalation ladder until Iran suffers enough damage that it surrenders, re-establishing credible US and Israeli deterrence in the region, leading to lasting peace. The series of blogs is an entertaining read, especially as the war progresses. I’ll leave everyone with the closing statement from the last blog post from a few days ago: “Reframing deterrence as a problem of credibility resolution highlights the importance of aligning coercive instruments with the adversary’s strategic logic. Effective deterrence requires not only the capacity to impose costs, but the ability to communicate willingness to threaten what the adversary values most. When coercion targets the adversary’s strategy while credibly signaling willingness to escalate further if necessary, it can shift expectations and restore deterrence. The primary challenge in contemporary conflicts is therefore not avoiding escalation, but avoiding stabilization at a costly equilibrium of attrition sustained by mutual expectations of limited war.” Seems to me like Iran is following this exact script, it’s just that Israel and US are not getting the message. Japanese-owned LNG tanker crosses the Strait of Hormuz https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japanese-owned-lng-tanker-crosses-strait-hormuz-2026-04-03/ US F-15E pilot likely captured by Iranian forces https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/us-f-15e-pilot-likely-captured-by-iranian-forces-local-media-3217422 Iran offers bounty to capture shot down F-15 Pilot https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/world/iran-bounty-us-pilot-ejection-claim-f15e-downed-qeshm-island-centcom-denial-q0lqt0kj US Choppers Searching For Downed Jet Crew Iran Claims It Hit? Video Sparks Buzz https://www.news18.com/world/us-choppers-searching-for-downed-jet-crew-iran-claims-it-hit-video-sparks-buzz-ws-bl-10013307.html U.S. fighter jet shot down in Iran, search underway for crew https://www.axios.com/2026/04/03/iran-us-fighter-shot-down ‘Russian Market @runews ATTEMPTED AIRBORNE LANDING BY UNIDENTIFIED TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT ON MAYYUN ISLAND, BAB AL-MANDEB. YEMEN GOV FORCES ON MAX ALERT’ Looked up this island and that is when it clicked. A coupla years ago the UAE built an airstrip on this island which Yemen was very unhappy about. That place would be a natural target if the UAE stated to load that island up with military gear so Yemen would be watching this island like a hawk- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/25/yemen-mysterious-airbase-gets-built-on-mayun-island SEC takes a break from looking at dirty internet pictures to do their job -> signal that something is happening. Considering how little interest the SEC has shown in the insider trading going on, I agree, must be something big. Leading Iranian human rights lawyer detained in Tehran, daughter says https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/leading-iranian-human-rights-lawyer-detained-tehran-daughter-says-rcna266524 Iran condemns US-Israeli ‘moral collapse’ after attacks on civilian sites https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/3/iran-condemns-us-israeli-moral-collapse-after-attacks-on-civilian-sites One lightly wounded after Iranian missile barrage targets northern Israel https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-891985 India set to commision its 3rd indigenously developed nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine INS Aridhaman today https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/india-set-to-get-3rd-nuclear-powered-ballistic-missile-submarine-ins-aridhaman-rajnath-drops-hint/amp_articleshow/129994282.cms World Bank ‘extremely concerned’ by fallout of Iran war https://www.euractiv.com/news/world-bank-extremely-concerned-by-fallout-of-iran-war/ Trump touts Iran talks with hardline leader Mohammad Ghalibaf, but says ‘we know where he lives’ https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-touts-iran-talks-hardline-leader-mohammad-ghalibaf/story?id=131582258 UK’s Reeves ‘angry’ over Trump’s decision to attack Iran https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-rachel-reeves-angry-over-donald-trump-iran-war/ Hey Yves, I’m pretty sure that video of base being struck is AI. Might want to double check that. Aside from that, thanks for post! Thank you, Yves, for these excellent missives. I do wish I had some idea of what to do with the information. On a UN force authorization – the donkey already left the barn! All available military forces willing to participate against Iran are already engaged, and other potential participants, such as Azerbaijan, Korea, or Italy, etc., are not participating because they are deterred (and not willing to go on a political branch for the same Trump who is always ordering them to kiss his ass). A UN resolution will not change the power dynamic a whit. That said, the UN’s relevance in the face of genocide has cemented its position in the minds of most as a useless tool of US soft power that will become archaic as geopolitical power shifts east.