Elections in Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva go to a second round in which the president faces a difficult comeback.

Elections in Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva go to a second round in which the president faces a difficult comeback The projections for Brazil's elections this Sunday were confirmed: the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will face right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round on October 25th. What was unexpected was such a clear advantage from Bolsonaro. With 99.99% scrutinized, Bolsonaro came first with 47.03% of valid votes—without blank or null votes—while Lula accumulated 45.16%, according to data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The difference is about 2 million votes. Since neither candidate exceeded the 50% of valid votes required, the TSE confirmed the runoff. Although a tight second round is expected, "historically, we have never seen a comeback in a second electoral round in Brazil," said political analyst Creomar de Souza to BBC News Brazil. "It is a very, very difficult scenario for Lula," he explained. Upon learning the vote result, the president stated that it was "unexpected" and that he was convinced he would win in the first round. And he stated: "No one but us can offer Brazilian society a future." Bolsonaro, for his part, said in his first statement that the numbers show "the end of the Workers' Party era," which the president leads. "I am very happy with the result I just saw: almost 56 million Brazilians giving me a vote of confidence for change. That is today's reading: Brazil wants a change," he asserted. The electoral day this Sunday proceeded normally, reported Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the TSE, in a press conference. There were 13 candidates seeking the presidency of Brazil this Sunday, but seeing the numbers seemed like there were only two. The candidate with the most votes below Bolsonaro and Lula, the writer Augusto Cury, did not reach 3% of the votes. In addition to choosing who will be the president and vice-president for the next 4 years, the Brazilians in the country—not those abroad—voted to define positions for deputies, senators, and governors. When the scrutiny began, Bolsonaro was ahead of 50% of the votes, but as the count advanced, the numbers between the two candidates got closer. This is partly because the southern states, inclined towards Bolsonaro, are usually the first to show results, while the votes of Lula's stronghold in the northeast are generally counted later, according to the news agency Reuters. Two models of Brazil By the end of the year, Lula will seek to be the first person to govern Brazil four times and give continuity to left-wing policies in the largest democracy in Latin America. If elected, he will also become the oldest president in the country's history, at 80 years old. Flávio Bolsonaro is 45 years old and entered politics in 2002. He is also the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to prison for an attempted coup after losing the 2022 elections against Lula. His country projects are very different. On one hand, Bolsonaro defends a liberal economic agenda, tax reduction, and stricter fight against crime. These ideas place the senator within the wave of right-wing leaders in Latin America aligned with the United States president, Donald Trump. In fact, upon learning the results, one of the first public congratulations Bolsonaro received was from the president of Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella, who posted a message on X saying that "the real change is to defeat the left." For his part, Lula built his campaign with proposals such as expanding the role of the state, strengthening social policies, and expanding labor rights. Furthermore, it is to be expected that Lula's re-election will lead to more confrontations between two of the largest American economies: Brazil and the US. According to journalist João Fellet of BBC News Brazil, "a central point of divergence between both candidates is the fate of the Bolsonaristas condemned for attacking democracy after the 2022 elections." While Flávio promises amnesty to his father and others convicted for the events of the last 4 years, Lula defends maintaining the punishment for those responsible. Lula at a disadvantage Bolsonaro's performance in the first round, which was better than expected, will give a new boost to his campaign, according to analysts. On the contrary, the results showed a scenario of wear and tear on the president's figure. "Lula's strategy was designed looking to the past, to the legacy, to historical achievements, and to what, in a way, worked four years ago," said De Souza. "In contrast, Flávio's campaign was very effective, especially in the last seven days, by conveying that in the end, it was not about Flávio Bolsonaro, but about removing Lula from power," he explained. "This was added to other strategic elements, such as insistence on everyday issues, like the price of meat, rice, and beans," he continued. Furthermore, according to the political analyst, there is a clear shift of the Brazilian electorate towards the right, as is happening in most of the region. Andreza Aruska, director of the King's College Institute of Brazil in London, told BBC News Brazil that there is also the factor of "punishing the candidate who is in government." "If your life is going to get worse, if you compare yourself to your parents when they were your age and are at a disadvantage, if you cannot fulfill your dreams of owning a home or a job, how will you keep the rulers in power?" she posed. Lula's challenge in the second round, according to De Souza, will be to address the unconvinced. "The protest vote foreshadows what will happen in the second round," said political analyst Rafael Favetti to Reuters. "Although this should benefit Flávio Bolsonaro now, his potential for growth in the second round decreases precisely because that support is already concentrated in the first round," he explained. Given the historical background and the current regional situation, it seems improbable that Lula will achieve a comeback on October 25th. - Download the new BBC World Service app. Choose BBC News World and receive news alerts, documentaries, and analysis, all in one place. Important: the new application is not available in the United Kingdom or the United States. - You can also follow us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, X, and on our WhatsApp channel. - And don't forget to subscribe here to our newsletter to receive a special selection of our best content every Friday.