Former Israeli intelligence chief Netanyahu called the war plan with Iran before the election madness.
Former Israeli Military Intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz warned that Iran's plan to attack the energy infrastructure and start a new war, less than a few days before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's general elections on October 27th, was "complete madness" and would lead to a regional catastrophe.
According to the news from the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iranian desk in the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate's Research Department and currently working at the National Security Studies Institute (INSS), stated that there was no military or strategic justification to justify a new war against Tehran under the current circumstances.
Citrinowicz emphasized that taking such a step was not due to operational necessity but from political calculations, indicating that the decision did not align with Israel's strategic interests.
Stating that Iran's extremely wide-ranging action against Israel and its resulting regional catastrophe, Citrinowicz made the following assessments:
"There is absolutely nothing to justify a war right now. Iran has not restarted nuclear enrichment. There are prior indicators that certain materials are being transported to the Kazma Mountains (the suspected underground nuclear site near Natanz), but there is no further development.
If Iran makes a leap towards nuclear weapons tomorrow, of course we must attack, but there is no such situation right now. Iran's missile arsenal has not returned to the level before the attacks began. Attacking two weeks before the elections is complete madness. A new attack will certainly cause damage, but the consequences in the international system will be unimaginable; they will set the entire Gulf on fire."
Israel Has Not Yet Repaired the Damage on Its Borders
The news indicated that claims were made that the operation, which the Financial Times had previously reported, planned to strike Iran's infrastructure including power plants, nuclear facilities, and other targets connected to the government on October 10th, was stopped with the intervention of US President Donald Trump.
Citrinowicz noted that Israel has not yet managed to remedy the damage on its northern and southern borders, where attacks have taken place in multiple fronts over the last three years, reminding that previous conflicts failed to overthrow the Iranian regime or permanently eliminate its military power.
Citrinowicz argued that Iran still maintains the ability to disrupt global trade by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Gulf countries have withdrawn from direct military retaliation, stating, "After two wars, we need to understand how Iran can still launch dozens of missiles. It seems they have no fear regarding their arsenals."
"A new war will ignite all fronts"
Citrinowicz recalled that Iran has replaced the murdered high-ranking officials with more hardline figures and that Mehrdad Ahlaki Kitchi, appointed to the Ministry of Defense, is also ready to respond to threats.
The former intelligence officer stated that Iran's recovery efforts are no different from the recovery efforts of the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shiite militias in Iraq, warning that a new war will reignite all these fronts.
Crisis in US and Israeli Missile Reserves
Citrinowicz also touched upon the news that Fox News reported about Israeli warplanes flying towards Iran using Syrian and Iraqi airspace during training exercises, stating:
"What is the logic of conducting a representative offensive exercise in Iraq when the war is on the verge? There is no other explanation than to make the Iranians fire missiles at us and find an excuse to retaliate."
Citrinowicz highlighted that the absence of US military presence in Iraq in the regional equation has expanded the operational area of Iran-backed militias, emphasizing an open crisis in the missile stocks held by both Israel and the US.
Recalling that air defense missiles will be depleted in a long, multi-front war and that every war brings the Israeli economy to a standstill and paralysis, Citrinowicz commented, "We know very clearly that we cannot destroy Iran by striking it from the air."
Emphasis on the Fact that 'Diplomatic Breakthroughs' News Do Not Reflect Reality
Citrinowicz also addressed the political schedule on the Washington line, stating that Trump desired to lose in order to give the message to Iranians, "If you deal with us, you will lose the elections," before the US midterm elections in November.
Citrinowicz expressed that while Tehran is ready to come to the table, it has put forward conditions that Trump cannot accept, noting that the news reports in Al Araby al-Jadeed, a Qatar-based news site, about "diplomatic breakthroughs" do not reflect the reality.
The former Israeli intelligence officer recalled that in a meeting with Muhsin Rezai, the Secretary General of the Iranian National Security Council, and Asim Munir, the Chief of General Staff of the Pakistan Army, he stated that all enriched nuclear material will remain as the national wealth within the country and negotiations will not take place unless the US takes confidence-building steps.
Citrinowicz argued that the two-month transition period between the US midterm elections in November and the start of the new Congress in January is very risky, suggesting that Trump might want to strike a single blow and declare victory during this time but would not want to seek to overthrow the regime in Iran.
Citrinowicz noted that the personal and political calculations of Netanyahu have become impossible to separate from Israel's strategic interests, and that the most dire dimension of the issue is this, stating:
"Is military solution the only option, and does it serve Israel's interests? Without analyzing why Israel failed to achieve the goals it announced in previous operations, it should not resort to a new war with the potential to be much more dangerous and violent than the previous one. It is the basis of our strategic coordination policy with the US, but Israel must independently evaluate what is right for itself; because the Iranians learn from every encounter they enter."
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