UN report warns: The world is heading towards 2.8 degrees of warming

The world is currently experiencing a warming of about 1.5 degrees – and the consequences are visible across the entire planet. The flood in Nepal, the summer heat in Western Europe, and the severe flooding in Valencia in 2024 are among events scientifically linked to climate change. Overall, hundreds of extreme weather events have been exacerbated by human emissions in recent years, according to a compilation from Carbon Brief earlier this year. Now, the world is likely heading towards even worse extreme weather. In the annual report "Emissions gap report," the UN's environmental program UNEP states that the 1.5-degree goal, set in Paris eleven years ago, is no longer achievable. Instead, according to UNEP, the world is heading towards a warming nearly double that by the end of the century – 2.8 degrees by pre-industrial times. The report is published in connection with the UN's major climate meeting COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, which begins in November, where the recent run of extreme weather is expected to be high on the agenda. However, UNEP's message that the 1.5-degree goal is now over does not mean the world can "give up," points out the UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a press release. It is possible to pass 1.5 degrees of warming and then take measures that cause the temperature to turn downward again, so-called "overshoot." "Overshoot is not giving up. We can still keep it as small and short as possible," says António Guterres. According to UNEP, the warming can now be limited to 1.7-1.8 degrees by 2050, in order to then turn downwards and reach 1.5 degrees by the end of the century, according to the report. However, something extraordinary is required: global emissions would need to decrease by almost one-fifth (18 percent) in just four years. If nine years – that is until 2035 – emissions would need to decrease by 45 percent. The most significant emission reductions the world has seen in recent years were in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, when emissions temporarily decreased by 7 percent from 2019 to 2020. Subsequently, they quickly rose to the previous level. In addition to historically significant emission reductions in the coming years, the world would also need to take measures that capture and store 320 billion tons of carbon dioxide – approximately equivalent to eight years of global emissions at the current level, UNEP states. This can happen, in theory, through, for example, extensive tree planting or on the technical path, through so-called CCS (Carbon capture and storage), but the UN report states that there are "socioeconomic and technical challenges" with such a scenario. UNEP has also reviewed the climate work in the world's largest economies, where Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and the USA stand out as brakes: none of the three countries have updated any climate plans to 2035. The USA left the Paris Agreement under Donald Trump. The only G20 country that has tightened its climate plan to 2030 is Mexico. Overall, UNEP states that there has been "limited progress" in the work to reduce emissions among the G20 countries. UNEP chief Inger Andersen also highlights the importance of now taking action to cut emissions. "Every fraction of a degree and every year of warming above 1.5 degrees increases the climate effects and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves, and fires that have plagued many countries this year," she says in a statement. However, there are glimmers of hope in the darkness. UNEP highlights the rapid development in renewable energy. Here, the development has far exceeded expectations when the Paris Agreement was signed eleven years ago. "Global development in solar cells and wind power installation has consistently proceeded faster than even the most optimistic forecasts," UNEP writes in the report. The problem, from an emissions perspective, is that the phasing out of fossil energy sources is also slowing down. Coal power, which seems to have reached a plateau, would need to decrease by 55 percent in nine years. Oil and gas would also need to decrease sharply going forward. The international energy agency IEA assesses that demand for oil and gas, on the other hand, will increase until 2050, driven in part by the current AI development. Even though emissions have not decreased globally, UNEP states that emissions would have been even higher if it were not for the development in renewable energy – and that it is proven that emissions can be lowered through climate policy measures. Read more: Climate Change Behind the Deadly Ice Wave New Report: Climate Change Drives Fires in France and Spain New Report: El Niño Could Lead to Nearly Half a Million Deaths