Ukraine expert: "Not smart of Selenskij to provoke Trump"

Ukraine Expert: "Not smart of Selenskyj to provoke Trump" US President Donald Trump has accused Ukraine of lacking reciprocal action for the support of the USA. "We have given Ukraine a lot - it has given us nothing. Don't forget that," he said. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy complained that Washington was withholding promised weapons deliveries. Is this once again the usual hot-cold between the USA and Ukraine? Russia and Ukraine experts Gerhard Mangott explained on Tuesday evening on ZiB 2 that Trump's position can never be ruled out to change. However, Mangott sees the attacks against Ukraine and against Zelenskyy as a person in the past days as "of a new quality." Zelenskyy verbally attacked Trump Mangott said that Trump questions Zelenskyy's legitimacy as a negotiating partner; this is a "typically Russian narrative" that no longer represents Zelenskyy as the legitimate president of Ukraine, and which the US president is now using. It is also new, as Zelenskyy reacted: He had held back otherwise and mostly tried to please Trump, but now "shot back sharply" and accused Trump more or less directly of "betrayal" and "deception" as well as one-sided favoritism for Russia. Expert Mangott places this as "probably not to be seen as smart" because it further provokes Trump. Forced End to the War? "Probably possible" Regarding the possible consequences of a reduction in US support, Mangott said: If the current restrictions remain, it is "painful" for Ukraine, but it does not yet force them to capitulate. However, he stated that Ukraine cannot, for example, use "Starling Starshield" speed restrictions to engage Russian positions, troop concentrations, and weapons and fuel depots in the rear of the front with medium-range missiles. Furthermore, the USA does not issue early warnings, whereby Ukraine cannot prepare in time for ballistic missiles against which they can hardly defend themselves. Mangott spoke in this context of "diplomatic pressure signals" to move Zelenskyy to adopt a more flexible stance in negotiations. In response to the question of whether Trump can force Ukraine into an end to the war, Mangott explained that this is probably possible because the Europeans cannot replace large parts of what the USA is no longer willing to provide. Trump can make the current restrictions permanent and dissolve the so-called "Pearl Mechanism," whereby Europeans buy American weapons within NATO and give them to Kyiv for free. Ending such deliveries would put Ukraine in a militarily difficult situation. Trump and the Autocrats Mangott named two reasons for Trump's stance towards Russia: First, the US president admires autocrats like Putin, Xi, or Erdogan, who could rule without institutional control ("he would like that in the USA too"). Second, it plays a large role that America wanted to resume business with Russia. Russia has pursued the strategy from the beginning of time to link negotiations with deals that could be resumed with the USA; the USA had long rejected this, but they are apparently ready for it now. Mangott referred to "very many billions" in this context, for example, in energy investments. Regarding the trilateral summit proposed by Putin with Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Mangott said that Trump is for it, but China's reaction is open. China will probably participate despite reservations, the summit should also focus on disarmament issues. Mangott also raised the question of what role China can play, as China formally defends Ukraine's territorial integrity but is ultimately interested in a Russian victory. In this case, China will take the role of "another supporter" of Russia. Then three states would consult on the future of Ukraine and Europe without Europe and Ukraine at the table. Comments