Fertitta, Rubio, Columbus Day and the G20: the road to a Meloni

ROME-NEW YORK — They are handling the statement with care, as though it were kryptonite or a shard of fleeting euphoria. Donald Trump says: “My relationship with Giorgia Meloni is very good. I’ve always liked her.” But it would be foolish to read too much into a one-line answer, officials at Palazzo Chigi caution. True, efforts to mend relations with the White House have been under way for some time. The ambassadors have been working behind the scenes — more on that shortly. But above all else, the instinct for self-preservation prevails. Caution is essential Experience has taught them that much. This, after all, is the president who went from describing Meloni as a “young, beautiful woman, a highly respected and very successful leader” to portraying her as a timid and disappointing ally, even invoking a “restraining order” against the Italian “stalker”. So this is not yet a turning point. The circumstances behind Trump’s remarks suggest as much. On Friday evening, the president was approached before heading to a rally in Alabama. The question came from Iacopo Luzi, an Italian journalist in the White House press pool. It was therefore an off-the-cuff comment, although probably one informed by discussions with his advisers. The ‘peace movement’ A great deal has happened in recent months. A diplomatic “peace movement” swung into action after the US president’s public insults. At its centre is the US ambassador to Italy, Tilman J. Fertitta. Extremely wealthy, powerful and someone Trump listens to. He also has another card to play: he is contributing significantly to the Republicans’ election campaign in Texas and appears to be using that leverage to help repair relations with the country where he represents the United States. The other mediator is Marco Rubio, the secretary of state regarded as the reasonable face of an unpredictable administration. But back to the original question: how much weight should be attached to Trump’s statement? The best way to assess it is in the context of what has happened over the past few days. An extraordinary G7 video conference was held last Friday. Trump secured agreement from his allies to release 100 million barrels of diesel from strategic reserves, a measure the US president was keen on as he seeks to curb prices ahead of the midterm elections. He got his way by threatening to halt oil exports to US partners. Trump was so pleased with the outcome that he praised the Italian prime minister — who was among those who backed the move — as well as the other major European leaders. “Europe has been exceptional,” he said. The White House reception But there is more. On October 9, the president will host a White House reception to mark Columbus Day: a gesture towards Rome as well as Italian-American voters, and another opportunity to speak warmly of Meloni. Then, on October 17, the National Italian American Foundation will hold its annual gala in Washington. The bolder among the intermediaries had informally floated the idea of a trip by the prime minister to present her book I Am Giorgia at the event, with a foreword by Donald Trump Jr. One obstacle, however, made the prospect more than remote: what would happen if the prime minister sought a meeting and failed to get one? Or worse, if she did not even try, effectively snubbing her ally? NIAF is therefore seeking to invite Secretary of State Marco Rubio, not least because of his Italian heritage. If he accepts, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani is also likely to attend. The book will have to wait for another occasion. At the United Nations General Assembly Those weaving the diplomatic web are still at work. The first scheduled opportunity for the two leaders to cross paths had been the United Nations General Assembly in mid-September, but Meloni conspicuously stayed away. The next potential meeting is on the sidelines of the G20 in Florida in mid-December. To prepare for the year-end gathering, Fabrizio Saggio, Palazzo Chigi’s diplomatic adviser and summit sherpa, flew to Washington two days ago. He was there to discuss energy, the economy and artificial intelligence — and, as ever, to tend relations with the administration. The hope, of course, is that the Miami summit could provide the setting for a face-to-face meeting marking the thaw. They will try. As for the summit and relations with Trump, Meloni has also recently considered in private whether to keep the door open to the US proposal to invite Putin to the next G20 hosted by the United States, an option Rubio himself raised at a press conference with Lavrov. Such a move would have been welcomed in Washington. In the end, however, the prime minister opted for caution, in line with other European leaders who cannot accept Moscow’s threats. She will make her position clear closer to the G20, while assessing Russia’s behaviour in the meantime. One question remains unanswered: is it really in Meloni’s interests to mend relations with Trump just months before Italy’s general election? And can she maintain a balance without being smothered by his embrace? The thaw does appear to have begun. But what happens after the November 3 midterms, given that the United States could resume its offensive against Iran? Washington and Rome have already fallen out over the issue, with the US accusing Italy of failing to do enough to support Washington’s efforts. It could happen again. The translation of this article was reviewed by a Language Service Provider