Venezuela’s “skyrocketing” needs, the UN debates AI risks, and refugees at the World Cup: The Cheat Sheet

Share & more Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe. On our radar Earthquake needs surge in Venezuela More than a week after twin earthquakes hit Venezuela on 24 June, humanitarian needs are “skyrocketing”, relief agencies warn. The number of casualties continues to soar – 12,400 injured, and an estimated 50,000 missing as of 2 July – and desperate Venezuelans are still digging through the rubble in the ever-shrinking hope of finding survivors or simply trying to recover their loved ones’ bodies. Thousands remain without shelter, access to basic services is limited or non-existent in many areas, and food is getting scarcer – fuelling community tensions around aid distribution. In worst-hit La Guaira state, 40% of the displaced are sheltering in streets, public spaces, churches, schools, or improvised shelters, according to the UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR. Meanwhile UNICEF estimates that 680,000 children require assistance, and aid workers fear outbreaks of measles, diphtheria, and vector-borne diseases, even as long-struggling health services are under severe strain. For more on survivors filling gaps amid a government response criticised as slow and inadequate, read this report from La Guaira and Caracas. Sprawling UAE-backed supply network in Libya sustains Sudan civil war A new Lighthouse Reports investigation has surfaced new evidence of the United Arab Emirates’ role in sustaining Sudan’s civil war by backing the Rapid Support Forces through a covert logistics and training network in eastern Libya. The reporting, conducted with Evident and Sudan War Monitor, draws on social media analysis, geolocation, satellite imagery, interviews, and adtech data to trace alleged RSF-linked camps, convoy routes, and transfers of weapons and fuel between Libya and Sudan. The investigation identified four previously unknown RSF camps in Libya, including one near Benghazi where people inside used phones set to Colombian and Argentinian Spanish. RSF defectors described training alongside Libyan National Army soldiers and UAE-contracted Colombian mercenaries before returning to Sudan. RSF and LNA officials denied the investigation’s findings. Limited international action has allowed alleged Emirati involvement in the war to increase, the investigation said, with devastating consequences for civilians, particularly in Darfur, and for Sudanese refugees fleeing through Libya. As Board of Peace meets, what’s in store for Gaza’s future? The US-backed Board of Peace held meetings in Cyprus on 30 June and 1 July to discuss “the next stage” of its plans for post-ceasefire Gaza. Implementation of last October’s cessation of hostilities agreement between Israel and Hamas has almost entirely stalled. But, according to Israeli media reports, the Board of Peace may be aiming to open “Hamas-free humanitarian zones” within weeks. These would be located in the around 65% of Gaza’s territory under direct Israeli control, where Palestinians are currently barred from entering. What little is known about the plans conforms with long-floated ideas to establish “temporary communities” with access to food, housing, healthcare, and education for vetted Palestinians – all things Israel has systematically destroyed throughout Gaza. The plans have been criticised as using the provision of aid and essential services to lure Palestinians into what former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert said would amount to a “concentration camp”. It is doubtful whether the plans and timeline are even remotely viable: Funding for the Board of Peace and the International Stabilization Force that is supposed to deploy to Gaza have both failed to materialise. And Israel’s political leadership appears to have different plans altogether for the areas of Gaza under its control. For more on that, see our latest Gaza investigation, which is also our Weekend read below. UN hosts global AI forum as concerns grow over risk and oversight The window to build global standards and oversight over artificial intelligence is still open, but for how long? A week of AI-related meetings kicks off in Geneva on 6 July, headlined by the inaugural UN Global Dialogue on AI Governance. A UN scientific panel warns that decision-makers must understand and manage both the rewards and the risks. Experts see 2026 as a pivot point for AI – especially with the rise of agentic AI. The ability of AI agents to complete complex tasks is doubling every four months, and human-made evaluations to test AI capabilities “are starting to hit a ceiling”, the US-based Future of Life Institute says. The UN panel warns of the “loss of control” as systems get greater agency. At the same time, AI can quickly create long-range weather forecasts and help predict monsoon seasons to optimise crop yields – just one example of clear but uneven benefits across sectors. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently called for a US-led global framework to make AI safe. If you’re sceptical of one country’s legitimacy to lead such discussions, then it underscores the thrust behind next week’s Geneva meetings. The UN platform moves the discussion to a global forum that has an eye on the humanitarian settings where AI benefits aren’t likely to reach first. El Niño 2026-2027: Preparing for the inevitable El Niño is here. Forecasters say the phenomenon, which influences global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather events, is likely to be “very strong” and expect it to strengthen through the coming months and peak around the end of the year. According to a recent inter-agency report, heaviest impacts may be felt from October through March next year and humanitarians are racing to prepare. The report says the humanitarian system is better positioned than in the previous strong El Niño cycles of 2015 and 2023, with anticipatory action frameworks active or finalised in 15 priority countries. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have also launched their first-ever joint anticipatory action appeal, seeking $202 million to support interventions in 22 high-risk nations, covering cash transfers, seeds of drought-tolerant or flood‑resistant varieties, livestock support, flood defences, and water storage systems. Governments are moving too. Kenya's Cabinet has formed an El Niño committee, activating a national contingency plan to prepare for heavy rains in October. The Philippines has also reviewed its national El Niño action plan across agriculture, energy, health, and education. Anti-migrant “Afrophobia” protests unsettle South Africa and beyond The feared mass violence in the end didn’t happen. But 30 June, the deadline set by a xenophobic movement for “foreigners” (read Black non-South Africans) to leave was still a bad day for the country -- and the continent. Tens of thousands of people had fled their homes for refuge in temporary camps, transit sites, and consulate grounds ahead of the “March and March” protests – a campaign ostensibly aimed at undocumented migrants, but a dragnet in which anyone Black (and especially blue collar) could be trapped and harmed. The protesters say they will continue their “abahambe” (“they must go”) agitation until all are deported. Bouts of deadly “Afrophobia” are not new, despite the economic benefits migrants bring. But this seems more significant: potentially the work of acolytes of a bitter former president Jacob Zuma; the emergence of a new mafia-like “power elite” as the ruling ANC crumbles; or simply the inevitable expression in a moribund economy of angry new populist coalitions. The rest of the continent is unlikely to forget in a hurry – the evidence suggests the economic disruption and diplomatic fallout from xenophobia can last decades. Weekend Read Trump can’t stop refugee success at the World Cup While President Donald Trump has suspended refugee resettlement to his country, with the notable exception of white Afrikaner South Africans, he can’t stop the fact that the 2026 World Cup is shaping up to be a showcase for migration and diversity. This is not to ignore the fact that football has a long-standing racism problem, on the national and international stages: It was not long ago that three English players were targeted with severe racist abuse after missing penalties in the 2020 Euro finals. But it also has a way of bringing people together, and despite what far-right populists would have you believe, just like migration is almost always a net positive, being open to immigration is also statistically linked to a country’s success in the beautiful game. Multiple players who were refugees are now in the final 16, including three of Australia’s players, members of the Bosnia and Herzegovina squad as well as several players whose teams have now been eliminated. Born in refugee camps or having fled for their own lives, as UNHCR puts it, they are a testament to “the power of what is possible when people displaced by war and persecution are met with safety, opportunity and welcome”.