Vaca Muerta, closer to a historical milestone: oil production nears a million barrels per day

Argentina registered a new record in its oil production in September. There were 973,700 barrels extracted per day in the ninth month of the year, an year-over-year increase of 15.5% and one more step towards the milestone the industry is pursuing in recent years: one million barrels. Of this total, 72.3% comes from the unconventional formation of Vaca Muerta. In gas, which reached 143.1 million cubic meters per day in September, an increase of 3.2% and a share of 69% from the unconventional sources. The producers exploiting the resources of Vaca Muerta believe that the ceiling is still far away. "I see the possibility of reaching 1,500,000 barrels per day or 1,700,000 and more as well," said this Tuesday Horacio Marín, CEO and president of YPF, in the context of the Argentina Oil & Gas event organized by the Argentine Petroleum and Gas Institute (IAPG) in Neuquén. The companies believe that expansion is tied to export. With September data, nearly 40% of the oil went to the external market, with the United States, Chile, and Thailand as the main destinations. In gas, and with more limited evacuation capacity, only 5.6% is exported and almost exclusively to Chile. These variables will begin to transform starting in 2027, with the start-up of the Vaca Muerta South pipeline (VMOS) which will begin exports from Río Negro; and also with the first production and export of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) with the Southern Energy project led by Pan American Energy (PAE). Production data is accompanied by export data. Energy exports reached US$ 1,781 million in September, 89.1% above what was recorded in the same month but in 2025. The energy balance, exports minus imports, showed a positive and record balance of US$ 9,427 million. In the entire year of 2025, this balance was US$ 7,815 million. The various infrastructure works that enable greater evacuation of Vaca Muerta production contributed to these figures. But also the prices. The barrel of oil remains above US$ 100 due to the war in the Middle East. "Geopolitics played in our favor in this case. It's not good, but for once in our lives it played in our favor. We have a positive effect on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That the Europeans do not buy more from the Russians gives Argentina the stamp of a reliable long-term supplier," said Marcos Bulgheroni, CEO of PAE. For Bulgheroni, Argentina and Vaca Muerta companies must focus on extending the value chain and intensive industries. "I have no doubt that Argentina will be among the top ten gas producers in the world. Alongside Algeria, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. So you have a dynamic of abundance management and not scarcity management." Argentina has already positioned itself as the largest gas producer in Latin America. To reach the countries mentioned by Bulgheroni, the country should double its current production. Algeria, the tenth global producer, has 288 million cubic meters per day. Sergio Mengoni, TotalEnergies representative in Argentina, believes that incentives should be given to the production of dry gas and betting on greater exports to Brazil. "The regional market is important to diversify and reach markets that need gas," he noted. In oil, Argentina is ranked as the third producer in South America, behind Brazil (4,475,000 barrels per day) and Venezuela (1,200,000). Marín, from YPF, maintains that they are already thinking about expanding the export targets of the VMOS pipeline, which will be launched with a capacity of up to 550,000 barrels per day. "Everyone (the operators) is asking for more, there is an analysis to expand to a million. It is a good indication that Vaca Muerta will surpass the initial values."