Low demand, low production, and lower employment: the warning signs of two key sectors for the rest of 2026

The economic outlook projected by the main actors of the productive and commercial sector of the country for the last months of the year shows a scenario of restraint and caution. Both industrial companies and supermarkets are going through a period of low demand which translates into widespread distrust and less encouraging prospects for the next quarter. The Business Trends surveys published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses account for this situation. The diagnosis shared between industries and supermarkets evidences that the complications are not limited to an isolated sector but affect the entire value chain, affecting everything from the production stage to mass sales to the final consumer. ADVERTISEMENT Low production and commercial activity In the factory setting, expectations about production volume for the period from October to December show a majority of expectations of stability, accompanied by a high percentage of firms that anticipate cuts. According to official data, 67.5% of industrial companies do not expect changes in their level of manufacturing, while 19.3% foresee a decrease in their productive activity for the coming months. This behavior occurs in a framework where the utilization of installed capacity and production volumes are below last year's levels. On the side of supermarkets and wholesale retail, the evaluation of the current commercial situation also yields an unfavorable balance and numbers that worry the supermarket owners. A significant portion of the establishments rates their current commercial situation as bad, reaching 37.2% of the responses, compared to 5.8% that consider it good and 57% that define it by normality parameters. For the current quarter, the vast majority of supermarket owners believe that the commercial situation will remain unchanged (72.1%), although 22.1% maintain that it will "improve". ADVERTISEMENT Stock levels, however, show a scenario of relative balance. 20.9% of supermarket owners assure that stocks are "below normal" and another 18.6% say they are "above normal". In the case of industry, 62.7% indicate that they are within the appropriate values. However, the balance of indicators, both in industry and supermarkets, configures a mostly negative scenario, which is reflected in the "Business Confidence Indicator" (ICE) compiled by the Indec. In the case of supermarkets, the balance between the commercial situation and stock levels translates into an ICE of -4.3%, meaning that the view of the companies on their economic situation is more negative. In the case of industry, the ICE is -18.9%, which shows a much lower level of confidence. ADVERTISEMENT Domestic consumption and the factors that put the brakes on The main obstacle that both industrialists and supermarket owners face to boost their operations lies in the weakness of the domestic market. When asked about the elements that limit their capacity to expand, 54% of manufacturing entrepreneurs directly point to the lack of domestic demand. This reading finds a correlation in the supermarket sector, where 66.3% of those surveyed point to the retraction of consumption as the determining factor that slows down commercial activity. Expectations for the evolution of internal orders for the coming months also do not show a favorable scenario, as a significant portion of factories anticipate decreases in the receipt of local purchase orders, deepening the contraction picture. ADVERTISEMENT Alongside the scarcity of sales, the competition from imported products (which is the main concern for 9.9% of companies) and economic uncertainty (6.7%) occupy a secondary but relevant place among the concerns of the manufacturing sector, while labor and financing costs (14% and 7%) hit strongly in the commercial sector. For entrepreneurs, these factors limit growth possibilities. Few hiring prospects in sight The impact of low demand on the formal job market is evident in the forecasts that employers manage for the end of the year. In the industrial sphere, 81.3% of companies plan to maintain their staffing levels unchanged, but 13.9% anticipate reductions in the number of employees, surpassing the few firms that evaluate taking on new workers. ADVERTISEMENT On the side of supermarkets and wholesalers, the labor panorama is also not encouraging. 81.4% of supermarket owners project to maintain their current staffing levels, while plans for workforce reduction (15.1%) significantly outweigh the few expansion projects for facilities (3.5 percent). What about the financial situation and access to credit According to Indec surveys, the accounts of companies are going through a difficult time. In the manufacturing sector, 25.5% of managers rate the financial situation of their firms as bad (compared to 63.5% that see it as normal), while access to bank credit is perceived as a difficult alternative by 30.1% of respondents. ADVERTISEMENT The financial reality of supermarkets does not differ much from that observed in factories, as 25.6% of supermarket owners categorize their financial status as delicate and 33.7% rate access to bank credit as a complex option. This situation is reflected in the default rates of the business sector in general. According to the latest data provided by the Central Bank (BCRA), the number of companies with overdue debts in the banking system reached 58,982, 53% more than twelve months ago. In summary, the expectations for production, demand, and employment, added to the current problems of industries and supermarkets, confirm a mainly negative reading from the entrepreneurs, although with some high points that give indications in favor, such as the 22.1% of supermarkets that expect an improvement in their commercial situation in the coming months.