Bitcoin-gold correlation hits six-year high, but analysts question whether equity decoupling will last

Bitcoin-gold correlation hits six-year high, but analysts question whether equity decoupling will last Quick Take - Bitcoin’s correlation with gold reached its highest level since 2020 at the end of August, Bitwise data shows. - Glassnode is less convinced by bitcoin’s recent divergence from U.S. equities, saying similar moves during bond selloffs have previously been short-lived. Bitcoin and gold moved more closely together during the latest bond market selloff, with their 90-day correlation reaching a nearly six-year high, according to data from Bitwise. The correlation rose after yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasurys moved higher and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased purchases of long-dated bonds. Bitcoin rose 22.4% over the following week — its biggest weekly gain since March 2024 — while gold added about 5% and stocks fell, André Dragosch, director of research for Bitwise in Europe, noted in a client memo on Wednesday. The last comparable reading was in 2020, Dragosch said, around the time governments and central banks responded to the Covid crisis with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Bitcoin was also negatively correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index at the end of August, based on Bitwise's 90-day measure, implying that headwinds for the dollar are tailwinds for bitcoin and gold, according to the firm. "When things get serious and macro forces are strong, investors are discriminating less and less between bitcoin and gold as they navigate rising currency debasement risks," Dragosch said. "In those scenarios, bitcoin has recently started to look like an amplified version of gold." What happened to the stock correlation? Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the August rally, analysts at Glassnode noted in a Tuesday report. U.S. stocks were largely flat at the time. However, sudden decorrelations during sovereign bond selloffs have tended to be "short-lived" historically, the analysts said, marking local exhaustion rather than structural regime shifts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that bitcoin has had a lower correlation to U.S. stocks than gold, small caps, emerging markets, and even Treasurys over the past six months. "Bitcoin has always been about .40, it's gold and Treasurys that have become much more correlated," he said. "Small window of time to be sure, but still notable and blows up the claim that it's just QQQ." In terms of price action, bitcoin cleared $80,000 toward the end of August after a 25% monthly rally, before falling back toward $76,000. Glassnode identified a cluster of long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000, while its main accumulation floor sits between $62,000 and $65,000, with bitcoin currently trading between them at around $77,600. At around $78,000 in late August, 68% of bitcoin supply was in profit, compared with 65% when the price was at a similar level in May, according to Glassnode. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds were taking in an average of $290 million a day at the height of the rally, while daily ETF trading volume remained near $3 billion. Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures. © 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.