‘A persistent dark cloud’: Trump faces a bleak new phase in Iran as GOP midterm anxiety grows

‘A persistent dark cloud’: Trump faces a bleak new phase in Iran as GOP midterm anxiety grows The weekend deaths of three U.S. service members have left White House allies afraid the president is rapidly running out of ways to extricate the country from an unpopular, expensive conflict. 07/21/2026 05:45 AM EDT The war in Iran has entered a bleak new phase. After weeks of fragile peace and stalled negotiations, the weekend deaths of multiple U.S. service members — coupled with new reporting showing there may be more previously undisclosed injuries — have left White House allies afraid the president is rapidly running out of ways to extricate the U.S. from an unpopular, expensive conflict ahead of the midterms. “This is what a quagmire looks like,” said one person close to the White House, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. Trump on Monday promised that Iran would pay “many times over” for each service member’s death, threatening to escalate a conflict that many had hoped was on the verge of resolving. U.S. Central Command announced Monday evening a new round of strikes focused on degrading Iranian military capabilities to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. “People, generally, are concerned,” said James Jeffrey, a former ambassador who served in the Middle East in three presidential administrations, including the first Trump administration. “I mean, Americans are dying. It’s very serious. This is a real war.” Republicans close to the White House are also distressed about the war’s economic impact on everyday Americans in an election that is expected to hinge on cost-of-living issues. The average price for a gallon of gas surpassed $4 for the first time since mid June, up 13 cents in the last week. And Iran’s demonstrated ability to survive punishing U.S. bombardments while inflicting casualties on American troops and allies and choking off the Strait of Hormuz underscores the challenges Trump faces in trying to win a war against an adversary that is merely trying to survive it. “I don’t think anybody likes the in-between position of having an Iran where these terrorists are still in charge and could affect our domestic politics going into November. For them, winning the war is surviving,” said Trump pollster John McLaughlin. “Their whole existence is based on an ongoing war with us that we’d rather not have. But they’re leaving us with an option that we don’t want to have to do.” Still, some are hopeful that the president’s latest threats are a means to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Mediators passed to Iran a proposal to deescalate the war with the U.S. that would establish a 10-day ceasefire in an effort to revive the agreement reached by the two countries last month, Reuters reported on Monday. Those in that camp balk at the idea that Trump would put boots on the ground to, say, seize Kharg Island, as the president has in the past suggested. “Anyone talking about boots on the ground, I think, is disconnected from the administration and certainly disconnected from the president,” said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff during Trump’s first term. “They’re pushing an agenda that has certainly no buy-in from the president and his team, and certainly doesn’t reflect the Republican Party today.” U.S. officials argue the president is focused on punishing Iran for violating the memorandum of understanding the two countries reached last month, attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and, now, the deaths of U.S. service members. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. Nevertheless, the military deaths and promises of revenge are casting a grim shadow over the summer campaign season, during which the president and his party were hoping to refocus on their popular tax cuts, Trump accounts for newborns and lower drug prices. The juxtaposition is stark. Ahead of a scheduled campaign-style speech in Georgia on Wednesday set to tout the administration’s economic agenda, the president had been expected to travel to Dover Air Force Base on Tuesday to attend the dignified transfer of the soldiers killed this weekend in the Middle East. The dignified transfer was postponed Monday night. “The war has become a persistent dark cloud that is souring the national mood which typically depresses the base of the party in power and motivates supporters of the opposition,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.). And additional escalation is likely to continue driving up the price of oil, which reached nearly $90 a barrel on Monday, according to the international Brent crude index, a number that further imperils GOP prospects in an election that is just over three months away. “My heuristic always is if the incumbent party has oil above $90 a barrel, they’re going to lose. And if they have it below $70 a barrel, they’re going to win. I think this is already the danger zone,” said Curt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative magazine. Speaker Mike Johnson said on Monday there could be briefings this week with administration officials on the latest developments in the war with Iran, but no meetings have been scheduled. Administration allies believe there are a number of military options open to the president that fall short of boots on the ground, including escalating the U.S’s naval blockade and attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Even though Trump last month conceded he was unsure if Americans had the “appetite” for a longer, broader war, some of the president’s supporters say Tehran is underestimating his tolerance for political risk. “They were hoping, because they’ve had a lot of experience with this, that they’ll simply outlast us,” Jeffrey said. But “Trump really has no choice. He put a compromise on the table. He’s not going to surrender, even if he loses the elections” in November. And the deaths of American servicemembers are likely to add pressure for Trump to respond forcefully, said a second person close to the White House granted anonymity to speak candidly. “His patience has always been limited, but I think we’re now seeing the consequences of that,” the person said. “A good indicator of where he intends to go is his massive defense budget request to Congress. He wants to ensure the United States has more than enough capability to sustain any future operations if necessary.” In addition to the $1.5 trillion defense budget, the White House also requested $67 billion to cover the costs of the war. That defense budget, however, is stalled in the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has argued that the legislation, which reliably becomes law each year, was tantamount to “a permission slip for that recklessness that we see occurring in Iran” and last week, Senate Democrats blocked it from advancing to the floor.