"An Abrissbirne": UN warn against the strongest El Niño since the start of measurements

The strongest El Niño since the beginning of observations is developing in the tropical Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects sea surface temperatures to be around 3.8 degrees above the long-term average for November to January. The United Nations anticipates droughts and floods from East Africa to Central America—and up to 50 million people who could additionally suffer from hunger. 3.8 Degrees: "We have never seen this in our records" The figure comes from the new seasonal climate forecast, which WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo presented in Geneva on Wednesday. The measurement is taken in the so-called Niño-3.4 region in the central Pacific, where the WMO expects the peak to occur around December. The value lies beyond the measurement scales that have been used for four decades, said Saulo. The WMO already speaks of an El Niño when it is 0.5 degrees above normal. In previous record years, values of around three degrees were seen. The record in the three-month average is currently 2.6 degrees according to the WMO, measured in the winter of 2015/16. In June alone, the deviation was 1.6 degrees, and in August already 2.5 degrees, as the WMO forecasts in its October statement. Saulo explained why it is happening so quickly: El Niño does not create new heat, but releases the heat that the ocean has already stored. Drought in Africa, Floods in Chile: These regions are affected The WMO's forecast is surprisingly concrete. In East Africa, the risk of heavy rainfall and floods increases until December during the rainy season. In southern Africa, drought is expected from November, right at the beginning of the planting season. In Southeast Asia, the WMO expects heat, water shortages, and increasing wildfire risk. Central America, the southern Caribbean, and parts of the Amazon region must prepare for drought. The WMO expects more rain, however, in the northwest of the USA and southern South America. The floods in Chile and the Paraná basin were named by Saulo as examples of what is already happening. 50 Million People: UN Warns of Famine Together with Saulo, UN Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher spoke. He used drastic words: "This El Niño is a monster. It is a wrecking ball." Up to 50 million people could suffer from additional hunger according to the UN. The African Development Bank estimates the cost for African states alone at 10 to 20 billion US dollars, and the economic performance could decrease by one to two percent. Fletcher released more than 50 million US dollars from the CERF emergency fund, including for Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad, and El Salvador. The next two weeks are crucial to bringing cash, seeds, and aid supplies to the ground. The global average temperature is also expected to rise. El Niño 2023/24 contributed to 2024 being the warmest year since records began. Saulo had already warned in September that this record could be broken. Colder Winter in Germany? What the DWD Says Europe is far from the Pacific and is significantly less affected. The German Weather Service expects indirect consequences from changing air currents, but currently cannot predict them specifically. Meteorologist Nico Bauer from the private portal Wetterdienst.de emphasizes that a strong El Niño alone cannot lead to a cold winter. The record El Niño may be more felt at home: Fletcher warned of further rising prices for food, fuel, and fertilizer. The WMO considers it almost certain that El Niño will continue until at least February 2027.