September Brent Breaks $90, RBOB Gasoline near Peak

The stated reason for the blockade is that Saudi Arabia has imposed a siege on Yemen, rather than because of the war against Iran. This arguably easier to resolve than the Iran war. As we’ve seen in the Persian Gulf, the ability to credibly threaten shipping in the Red Sea is probably enough to enforce a blockade. Recently, about 7% of global oil exports have been through the Red Sea. The widening gap between oil and gasoline prices is partly the result of Ukraine destroying Russian refining capacity; Russia has shifted toward exporting crude in place of refined products. That shift works to the extent that Russia is able to export crude, which is not news to Ukraine. Ukraine has been peppering a major Russian oil export facility, the CPC marine terminal, with drone attacks: Houthis have now said they intend to blockade Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-launches-iran-strikes-ninth-day-another-american-confirmed-killed-2026-07-20/ The stated reason for the blockade is that Saudi Arabia has imposed a siege on Yemen, rather than because of the war against Iran. This arguably easier to resolve than the Iran war. As we’ve seen in the Persian Gulf, the ability to credibly threaten shipping in the Red Sea is probably enough to enforce a blockade. Recently, about 7% of global oil exports have been through the Red Sea. The widening gap between oil and gasoline prices is partly the result of Ukraine destroying Russian refining capacity; Russia has shifted toward exporting crude in place of refined products. That shift works to the extent that Russia is able to export crude, which is not news to Ukraine. Ukraine has been peppering a major Russian oil export facility, the CPC marine terminal, with drone attacks: https://www.cpc.ru/en/press/releases/2026/Pages/default.aspx