Community-based forest management in changing contexts: Forest users' perspectives on the future of community forestry in Nepal

Community-based forest management in changing contexts: Forest users' perspectives on the future of community forestry in Nepal | Authors: | Prabin Bhusal, Rajan Parajuli, Erin O. Sills, Conghe Song, Gregory E. Frey, Dil Bahadur Khatri | | Year: | 2026 | | Type: | Scientific Journal | | Station: | Southern Research Station | | DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103868 | | Source: | Forest Policy and Economics | Abstract The Community Forestry (CF) program in Nepal is often lauded as a successful global example of the participatory forest management model, particularly for restoring degraded forest in the midhills However, recent socio-economic, demographic, ecological, and governance change have transformed forest-people relationships, creating uncertainty about the program's long-term sustainability. In this context, this study aims to identify the socio-ecological and institutional factors shaping community forest users' perceptions of the future of CF in Nepal. Using survey data from 873 households collected in 2023 in Salyan and Pyuthan districts, we employed an ordered logit regression model within a social-ecological systems (SES) framework to analyze perception outcomes. The majority of respondents (67%) expressed optimism regarding the CF program in the study region. The results suggest that long-term migration, off-farm income, raising livestock, and CFUGs' engagement with local forestry officials are significant factors that explain the positive outlook of community forestry in Nepal. Conversely, we identified wildlife crop raiding, female household heads, and local government involvement as significant negative factors affecting the perceived future of community forestry in Nepal. This study extends the SES framework to explain perception-based outcomes in CF under changing rural contexts. The findings highlight the need to adapt CF programs and policies to evolving socio-economic and governance contexts and revitalize local collective efforts for sustainable forest management. Future research could examine longitudinal perception changes and integrate ecological indicators to better assess system resilience.