Nate Silver Now Gives Democrats a 65 Percent Chance of Winning the Senate

Silver finally catches up to my forecast. Nate Silver Three Models - Deluxe: 65.3 percent - Lite: 68.8 percent - Classix: 63.4 percent How FLIPR Forecasts the Midterm Elections FLIPR is the new acronym for Nate Silver’s Election Models. Aug 11, 2026 FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings. - Lite derives as much information as possible from polls alone; - Classic is polls + fundamentals; - And Deluxe is polls + fundamentals + expert ratings. Deluxe Every year, we have a debate about whether to retire the Deluxe version and stick to a model that uses purely objective inputs. Even though the expert ratings reflect other people’s judgments and not ours, there are some undesirable properties from including them. For instance, if experts are looking at Silver Bulletin forecasts to help calibrate their ratings, the entire process becomes somewhat recursive. Furthermore, in recent elections, the Deluxe version of our forecasts typically only “calls” one or two additional races correctly across the ~500 races we forecast every year compared to Classic. Although the expert forecasts are good at discriminating between relatively stronger and weaker races for each party, they have a weird and persistent bias. Namely, expert raters tend to implicitly assume a neutral political environment (i.e., a generic ballot of about zero) until quite late in the cycle. As of early August, for instance, the unadjusted expert ratings imply a political environment of around D +2 versus the roughly D +7 environment calculated by FLIPR Classic. In a D +2 environment, a candidate like Talarico probably wouldn’t win despite Paxton’s weaknesses, but a D +7 would require much less overperformance. FLIPR’s predecessors have always been aware of this tendency and “de-biased” the expert ratings before applying them. But in auditing the code this year, we discovered some shortcomings in the way this de-biasing process had been applied by the model. Basically, because of some artifacts in how races are rated, there was a bit of leakage from the experts’ implicit assumptions about the national environment (i.e., wrongly assuming the generic ballot = 0) into the Deluxe forecast. And we specifically do not think the experts’ views of the national environment provide much utility at all; their value is solely in the rank-ordering of different races relative to the national environment. In working on the model this year, we developed better techniques for removing this bias completely. Senate Map Nate Silver Nate Silver Key States - North Carolina: 92.1 percent Democrat +1 - Maine: 73.4 percent Democrat +1 - Ohio: 69.7 percent Democrat +1 - Michigan: 76.7 percent Democrat, No Change - Minnesota: 88.4 percent Democrat, No Change - Texas: 68.0 percent Democrat +1 - Alaska: 53.1 percent Democrat +1 - Iowa: 52.5 percent Democrat +1 That totals +6. Silver’s model assumes two of those are wrong for +4 net. As I have stated all year, +6 would not be any surprise. An even bigger bloodbath would put Nebraska or Kansas in play. To put things into perspective, Silver has Democrats odds of winning Kansas at 27.7 percent vs Republican odd of winning Michigan at 23.3 percent. That is how nasty things look for Republicans at the moment. Alaska Senate Yesterday, I asked Can a Democrat Win the Alaska Senate Race? Yes. It’s what I expect. Let’s discuss why. Kalshi has Mary Peltoa at 68 percent, and has been above 60 percent most of the year. Polymarket has Mary Peltoa at a new high 73 percent. Nate Silver’s deluxe model has Peltoa the underdog. I don’t buy it. I suspect his model thinks Alaska is a red state so it stacked the deck for Sullivan. Serious Republican Uphill Battle The Hill repeats the red state uphill battle meme for Alaska. It’s an uphill battle alright, for Sullivan. I have Alaska as lean-to-likely for Democrats. That changes the Senate flipping odds quite a bit. Putting all of this together, I am about 65 percent likely, at the moment, that Democrats take the House and Senate. That estimate is a blend of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Nate Silver (but adjusting Silver for Alaska). Today, Silver caught me for the first time all year. His deluxe model has Alaska in the Democrat column by a tiny bit and he caught me at 65 percent overall. I am ahead of Silver on Alaska odds, but I am not quite 69.7 percent on Ohio or 68.0 percent on Texas. Expanding the Field Nate Silver is at +4 Democrat pickups. I wonder if we are in a +4 or +6 setup where if it blows, it really blows, possibly to +7. My forecast all year has been Democrats will win nearly every race considered close, in both the House and Senate. The problem for Republicans, and Cook Political pointed this out recently, Democrats keep expanding the number of seats in play. For months, the majority of Cook Political shifts have been in Democrat’s direction. Cook Political New Battleground District Poll Please consider the Cook Political report New Battleground District Poll Shows Democrats Up, Voters Eager for Sweeping Change A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. It also finds an electorate eager to see a new Congress do more than simply hold President Donald Trump to account, but also to make fundamental changes to the political system. The poll, which was conducted for The Cook Political Report by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, surveyed voters in the 37 districts we rate as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat. In those competitive districts, which Trump won by an average of five points in 2024, Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 47%. “Voters blame Trump for making many of the country’s problems worse, and they’re more worried about Republicans enabling him than Democrats over-correcting in opposition,” said pollster Patrick Toomey of New River Strategies. “But their frustration is broader and more systemic, and they’re looking for something beyond either enabling Trump or simply opposing him.” How high could a blue wave be? The structure of the poll itself helps show how the battleground has shifted — and what a blue wave might look like. When we polled the 36 districts we ranked as competitive in April, Democrats led by six points in the generic ballot, but Trump won those districts by an average of two points. Now, because more red districts have come online — and because more blue districts have shifted into safe territory — there are more districts in our competitive category that Trump carried by double digits and fewer districts won by Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s a sign of a playing field that has expanded deeper into GOP territory over the course of the summer. Republicans are now compelled to defend Senate seats in Kansas and Nebraska. Was that on your Bingo card in January? It was on mine and I mentioned it. That said, I do not expect Democrats to win Kansas or Nebraska. But I would not be that shocked by it. Trump’s Farm Policy - Grain and soybean exports are down due to Trump’s trade war with China. - Farm machinery costs are high because of tariffs. - Diesel keeps setting new record prices every day. - Trump offended ranchers by reducing tariffs on beef from Argentina - Wisconsin and Michigan are losing dairy exports to Canada - In Maine, Sue Collins had to plead with Trump over lobster wars. Trump’s farm policies have devasted farmers. He has been a disaster to farmers, but they keep voting for him anyway. Farm policy will help flip Ohio and Maine, and firm up Democrat support in Michigan. If Iowa flips, it will be over farm policy, but also because Trump drove out Senator Joni Ernst. She would have been re-elected easily. Trump himself is the cause for the expanded playing field. Related Posts August 2, 2026: Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats Texas Eye Opener I am not at all surprised that Paxton is trailing Talarico. Paxton is a genuine scumbag in a messy divorce proceeding for biblical grounds. Iowa Surprise Not Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump. Looking Ahead It’s not my forecast yet, but I have been discussing the possibility of a 6-seat Senate pickup by Democrats all year. In January, that idea probably looked outright crazy to many. September 17, 2026: Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans. September 18, 2026: For the First Time, Kalshi Sees 52 Democrat Senate Seats For those counting, that would be a pickup of five seats. Iowa on deck for six. Conclusion Everything has to go right for Democrats to win 6. That’s an observation, not a prediction. But it’s increasingly likely. Plus four or more for the win is about 65 percent. Silver caught me today. No worries. If the country is threatened with Democrats winning elections, the gun owners of America will rise up and liberate us. I believe that Trumps’ physical health is already compromised and he is closing in on a rapid cognitive decline. meanwhile: As White House shields the AI gold rush, Trump family and other allies strike it rich – with few guardrails https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/20/trump-ai-policy-financial-interest When Clinton balanced the budget and got gas below a dollar a gallon the Rapeublicans impeached him for getting a consensual blowjob from an adult intern. When Trump Raped multiple underage girls, Rapeublicans colluded to protect and enable him while Trump also waged a religious war to double the cost of fuel. WTF? A Republican is a person that colludes in the rape and/or bombing hundreds of schoolgirls by its president and a goes insane over a few transgender kids in sports. I don’t like either, but seriously, compare the evil hypocrisy that Rapeublicans support. If Trump thinks these numbers are real, I fear he will do something far worse and the Supreme Court will side with him in canceling the elections. voting has already begun in a few states. Trump has probably mailed his ballot to Florida. “The TAX EVASION STATE” Canceling the elections would cause the stock market and bond market to crash. Whatever happened to that civil war you kept harping about? might have the opposite effect. stocks might rally big time with no central government to police them. us bonds might, go no bid. i remember being in russia in the 1990s doing business when that evil empire was unwound into their old states. many folks made out splendidly. the old geezers north of 35 or so were mostly in shock. many begged to go back to ruled by an iron fist with everything being a government job from doctors to prostitutes. Taco is going to take his shellacking and like it. Reality is going to hit is ego hard. He might try to put his name on or tear down as many things as he can. Lawyers are going to make a mint. my inside the beltway, big time, attorney pal, called me the day trump won in nov 2015. he said it was going to be the greatest payday he could imagine. boy was he correct. maybe we will have a hunter biden v don jr. 2028 match for old time sakes. or don jr. v chelsea clinton “Trump’s farm policies have devasted farmers. He has been a disaster to farmers, but they keep voting for him anyway.” Magats can own the libs or own the farm, but not both. They still think that somewhere somehow there is some wisdom in his policies you think they “think” ? the public school, fat farmers on the government teat for generations. Trump has pushed the House and Senate into Constitutional irrelevance The remaining GOP members are not going to find a backbone in the new session and the Dems will not have an overwhelming majority As a result, Trump will further shred the Constitution and laws while Congress stands by impotent Where are the Constitution police? It is clear that the anti-constitution forces (Pentagon, ICE, state and local police forces and hardline MAGA) are fully staffed. Vance So Toxic GOP Candidate Wouldn’t Campaign With Him In Iowa This was an awkward moment, even for Vance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0iO_NGSZlQ Funny. Vance has beclowned himself. He should have publicly come out against Trump’s war on Iran. It’s not like Trump can fire him – although he could probably have Mossad kill him. That’s a chance Vance should have taken. Vance is the Ed Sheeran of vice presidents. I have to think there’s a growing number of people just sick of Trump’s bullshit – even threatening the Kennedy Center if it doesn’t bear his name. The only way they can get back at him is to vote against all republicans. I expect Dems to win an “unexpected” state – like Florida or Nebraska. I the republican parties fault anyway. They balked on impeachment on jan 6 they deserve losing all the way to the local level. The republican party as far as politicians go is a team. Bought and paid for by the very wealthy to pull the wool over the voters eyes. I hope this opens up the eyes of most of the republican voters. Way i see it is trump is just what the republican party is. Just out in the open times ten. The MAGAs will never abandon Trump. To do so would require self introspection and the realization they have made a terrible mistake. That’s only true if – as with polls a few months back – the “MAGA’s” were defined as those remaining supportive of Trump. A tautology. 97% of people who support Trump support Trump. Trump has clearly lost support among his erstwhile base. That’s part of why his favorability has plummeted – the other reason being that independents who’d voted for him have turned against him. I remember the horrible times when the whole nest of vipers ganged up on Nixon. There were some bad election results, but the Republican Party soon came back. Your first-past-the-post voting system enforces the existence of only two major parties, and helps them stay pretty bad. Nixon Florida big surprise win for democrats Osborn Nebraska independent win over republican also a big surprise Keep your watch on Kansas also a possibility “Everything has to go right for Democrats to win 6.” Good thing Donald Trump is working day and night to make that happen. Today’s docket was telling voters they’re dumb for not liking datacenters and trying to proclaim that AI is “super intelligence” (SI). What more could voters want out of their government than to be called a retard? That’s right. Dumb, with a “b”. Most voters don’t know about that “b”. I been listening to a podcast call this week in tech for 8 or so years. They have had many discussions on regulation of social media and such. Seems dems are always for regulation and republicans are not. Imo the whole free speech argument is a cover. They realize the potential for propaganda and such. Its the same with dark money and ai. Ultimately, the “blue wave” of 2026 will create a red wave of 2028. And that one holds the President. After two years of watching Democrats pass stupid socialist bills and Trump rebukes, the people will be ready for sanity in 2028. The position of president is what we need to keep away from you angry Democrats. When you guys run Kamala again, I’m sure this time will bring the magic! So even if blue wins, I’m sure the country will be overjoyed at the revenge politics and degradation of the legislative bodies to score-settling, rather than actually helping people. My guess is that you vindictive democrats couldn’t care less about the country or its people. It’s just about getting Trump. It should be fun to watch your party continue to self-destruct for two years. “So even if blue wins, I’m sure the country will be overjoyed at the revenge politics and degradation of the legislative bodies to score-settling, rather than actually helping people.” You mean like the GOP is currently doing on top of protecting pedophiles and performing graft in the open? Please give us some more cope, I’m ready to hear more about the “sanity” behind the Iranian ass whipping you’re getting right now. Boy it sure is funny how everything the evil Democrats are supposedly going to do is being done right now by the GOP. Any comment there? Where’d those Epstein files go? Spoken like a true tribesman. You are correct that the dems are as bad as the repubs, but keeping the orange dipshit and his congressional sycophants in power is the worst of all options. Until we stop acting like ignorant tribes, this country will continue to go to shit. So keep making your rationalizations about 2028 to feel better. But until we stop putting aholes on the extremes in charge because we are currently an ignorant group of tribal monkeys, dont expect any change for the better, no matter your political perspective Democrats as bad as the Republicans? Are you not paying attention.. Eh republicans strategy is to pull the dems into culture wars. Because they dont have a counter policy wise. I would like to see the dems actually balance the budget / campaign finance reform/ immigration reform. All the topics that need addressed. It would kill the republican party. I certainly hope you’re right. Politics may seem like just playing around sometimes, but your politics is existential to polities like Australia and Taiwan. If you go broke and can’t afford an army any more, we get thrown to the animals. I think Japan feels the same way about it, even though Japan is a lot bigger than we are. You could always make friends with China. Right, and get exterminated and replaced even faster than we are now. That would be justice for the Aboriginals wouldn’t it? “Japan is a lot bigger than we are” curious Blue wave of 2026, Hahaha… No wave of blue is anywhere close to reality. Hassan is now finished, and his cohort Talarico is is just as washed out and hung out to dry along with him. The two heavily counted on dogs in the fight, got swallowed up, and spit out. Some before them were already erased as well, and now it leaves mostly unqualified, underfunded, misrepresented and quite frankly a few idiot tools that didn’t have much to use up, so they didn’t work either. Game, set, and the Match is nearly over… That was simply just too damn easy, or were they just literally that bad and incompetent? Either way, they are left whistling past the grave yard, with. Nothing to show from all that misery spewed. Too bad really, as their incompetence was just too much for them to overcome. Better luck with the next batch, as this batch is washed up, and left out to dry out in the sun… its true Republicans like men who cheat on their wives and taxes, but deep down, the majority of voters know that is wrong. And when they see gasoline prices going up week by week, they know Republicans are completely responsible. – its true Republicans like men who cheat on their wives and taxes.> That is an absolutely insane statement. Are you all there? You need to eat better and stop drinking, as it’s clouding your judgement to the point of incompetence. – but deep down, the majority of voters know that is wrong. > So what do these majority of voters know, that the rest don’t? Some secret list of information they are not sharing? Are they just stupid with what they think they know? If not, then How on earth do they know, what special gifts do these geniuses have, that the rest of us don’t? – And when they see gasoline prices going up week by week, they know Republicans are completely responsible. > Wow, you need to open your eyes up by a lot. Maybe place toothpicks in them, to be able to see straight? How are the Republicans responsible for gas prices? Do the Republicans determine alone, what the cost of gas will be. Does availability come into play, or just the party label? Are Democrats too stupid to see and understand how all this works? Do Republicans have dictatorship to wave a wand of power, to zap Democrats out of any knowledge or decision making concerning gas, and if so what else can they wave this magic wand at? Can I use it? Congratulations on winning the victory you are celebrating. Well done! What about Dick Durbin’s Seat? “Either way, they are left whistling past the grave yard, with.” With what, you illiterate buffoon? 😂 your an idiot the molester and thief and his cronies are pissing all over the constitution they are setting up america to be easy pickens for a foreign power to overtake. Protecting and improving the life of the billionaire epstein class and making the working man poorer. Democrats historically improve the country after the reperverts get us into deep shit. Bush starting the forever war and destroying the economy Obama working thru the mess he inherited and leaving the economy much improved for trump to claim the improvement then Trump doubling the m1 money supply and Biden inheriting a mess and admitting making it worse at first.but at least on the right track inflation was starting to go down then the molester fucking it up again he will leave a terrible mess for the democrats to fix in2028 there is always a delay between cause and effect any fool know this Wow, you certainly do know it all, don’t you? I think you have just about all of it backwards. The leftists spend too much and the more right-wing party usually has to economize. Epstein was presumably some sort of Israeli agent, and not everyone in the billionaire class is into what he was into. You remind me of a dear lady here in Australia who gave me the breathless news that Queen Elizabeth II and Pope Benedict were getting together in France to murder babies. I tried to be nice and suggested that they were probably a bit too old for that sort of thing. People who build advanced weapons systems aren’t setting your country up to be “easy pickings.” People who ruin the economy with socialism and bureaucratic interference with trade do that. Ignorance is only bliss for a while. Can you identify the last time the “more right-wing party has …economize[d]?” Asking for all my friends. Hahaha, you can’t possibly be serious… Yes, it’s ALL about Trump. It’s about stopping the hemorrhaging. What do the Republicans have to offer: tariffs, war, inflation, higher gas prices, higher grocery prices, dissing our allies, showing our weak military hand, threats to tear down the JFK Center, ICE brutality, tearing up the Constitution, issuing illegal executive orders, murdering foreigners on the high seas, rigging the midterms, $corruption? Yes, please, give me more of that and put some stank on it! Democrat’s platform is stopping this American Carnage and the Grifter in Chief. Then, in two years, we’ll talk about reversing all the damage. And whoever runs for president in the R column better have a damn good explanation about what they were doing during this time and how they’re gonna fix it. While more than justified based on the fundamentals, I would wait to break out the champane. Impressive numbers. At the very least, that poses a very interesting Fall ’26, and thereafter. With both houses (D), especially fairly solid majorities, impeachment appears on the radar screen, with a real chance this time of sticking. Trump has broad criminal immunity, but I’m very interested in who a net of criminal investigations might reach. There won’t be any criminal investigations with Trump controlling the DOJ. There may be impeachments of a number of cabinet members. There may be withholding of funds for particular reasons as means of leveraging the courts to stop illegal spending (or lack of spending) There may be exercise of congressional power to impose costs if subjects fail to obey subpoenas but referral to DOJ unlikely to do anything. A huge blue wave will prove Trump to be toxic. That will free up republican senators to vote to oust him in an attempt to save 2028 – which it almost certainly wouldn’t. Vance has been too much of a sycophant to prevail as the 2028 gop candidate- even if he’s running for reelection. 2028 is a LONG way away. Remember by then the Democrats will have controlled both houses for 2 years. The public will expect something meaningful (ie more than just impeaching Trump for 2 years) to have been done by then. If it hasn’t then THEY’LL own that failure, not Republicans. You must honestly suspect Trump will slit his own political throat vetoing everything the Dems do that is decent and good for the nation. +4 might not be enough if Fetterman flips, which prediction markets have around 50% chance he does by 2028. Obviously it would have to happen by 2027 but the odds aren’t minimal. He could go Independent caucusing with Republicans even. Fetterman wont flip. He votes 80% of the time with Democrats. Trump would expect more than that I don’t think percentages are what matter here. What matters is whether he is there in a crisis, when something vital comes up. I assume that Trump threw Massie overboard because he could get a more obedient fellow in Massie’s place. Can he get a more obedient fellow in Fetterman’s place? And while I’m here, how do you feel about the good (I hope) news about Greenland? It seems that Trump knew what he was doing all along, and has achieved all that could realistically be expected. I don’t know if the public will notice, of course, which is important in an election. You know he’s lying about Greenland right? No, I guess not. No, I don’t know. I know he exaggerates sometimes. I would like to get an adult commentary on whether he has exaggerated (and how much) this time. I assume that to do that, you need to read the official documents and statements, not just his Facebook posts or whatever they are. Where the “Spin” Comes In Sorry Arthur, trump lies over 70% of the time, the real question is why people believe anything he says. We would love to read such an adult commentary, if you were inspired to provide one as you describe. You seem quite capable of this. Here is my take: we get to build more military bases on Greenland. They are still sovereign and not controlled by the US. What did we gain in this deal? Some bases in the future, but most importantly a way out of the Greenland theater for Trump while claiming a pyrrhic victory. Maybe you can find some big victory in this deal, and you can tell us what it is. “Adult” commentary for Mr.Little Hookers?!? Erik The Red lied about Greenland. Funny you can be middle of the road anymore. Fetterman and others have to vote mixed bag to keep the voters in their happy. Outside money and far extremes do like that. Fetterman hated by democrats. If he switxhes he will be hated by everyone He’s hated by Dems, and he votes 90+% along with them. What a bunch of losers they can be I suppose. No wonder you hear he will switch, which he won’t ever imo. The Dems can’t stand the man obviously, even when he is clearly on there side. Haha as see it. To be a politician you have to be able to take being hated by roughly half the voters anyway. Its the voters in his district he has to please to get elected. And the big outside donors. Imo we would do better as a nation if we focused more on issues than party. While Fetterman appearing on video at the midterm convention may certainly seem like a mistake, it may have another purpose. Being up for reelection in 2028, and becoming more unpopular with democrats, he may be trying to get republican interest because he won’t survive on democratic votes alone.